is this a real thing that is actually happening?

[Uncle Sparky]

with ISIS advancing on several fronts, and bombs going off in baghdad, not enough iraqi MPs turned up today to achieve quorum for a planned vote on giving the government emergency powers. meanwhile kurdish forces in and around kirkuk have moved in more men and said that they will defend the city and other kurdish areas of the province 'to the last drop of blood'.

in other news, the UK has ruled out intervention, while the US is 'considering further assistance to iraq in fighting the militants'. while the iranian president has said that iran will 'combat extremists' in iraq.

Iraq, outside of the Kurdish territories, hasn't had a functioning government in years. Maliki has been Shi'ite first, never Iraq 1st, and never had the backing of the majority of the country. ISIS is the group that is so crazy Al Qaida in Iraq avoids them whenever possible. They are the ones that used US contractors as human piñatas. They will not be kind to captured perceived enemies.

[Elok]

From the BBC:

US President Barack Obama says his government is looking at "all options", including military action, to help Iraq fight Islamist militants.

But the White House also insisted it had no intention of sending ground troops.

I'm confused. Does this mean:

A. Sending the Iraqi army more guns to replace the ones they chucked away when they ran without a fight;
B. Launching drone strikes against Iraq's cities and hoping for a combatant-to-civilian kill ratio above 1/500;
C. Asset freezes against enemy leaders, which in this case I guess means hiring some dudes to steal their goats; or
D. Dithering for a while until something else makes the news and/or Iran invades?

I'm leaning towards D, but with this wacky administration one never knows what sort of outside-the-box thinking to expect.

[kentonio]

Drone and airstrikes probably.

[C0ckney]

Let's hope for a relatively bloodless transfer of power. These ****wits trying to actually govern a country should be an occasion for low comedy, not high tragedy.

ISIS (despite their rhetoric) don't really want to govern iraq. they want to take the sunni areas in the north, centre and west of the country, together with any oil producing areas they can get their hands on. combined with their territory in syria, this will form the basis of their 'caliphate'.

Do you reckon Iran will take the whole thing, or just the non-Kurdish part?

iran is very unlikely to want to annex any part of iraq, but rather will, if necessary, halt ISIS to defend shias in southern iraq and look to be heavily involved in setting up new government firmly under their influence (or perhaps keep the old one hanging on, but it's so weak now that that may be impossible), as a price for their support. that support is likely to come in the form of money and weapons to existing iraqi militias, with which they have extensive links, and special forces, rather than the iranian army. they also will probably want to do what they can to prevent kurdistan becoming a state, but are unlikely to go too far.

[C0ckney]

Drone and airstrikes probably.

i think that's likely. in the short term a strong show of american force may be enough to save maliki's government from collapse, however given the fact that no iraqis want to fight for it, or even the iraqi state itself, its future looks very bleak.

[DinoDoc]

According to the sources, ISIS leader Abu Baker al-Baghdadi recently discussed with his lieutenants the possibility of extending the group’s control beyond Syria and Iraq.

One of the ideas discussed envisages focusing ISIS’s efforts on Jordan, where Islamist movements already have a significant presence. Jordan was also chosen because it has shared borders with Iraq and Syria, making it easier for the terrorists to infiltrate the kingdom…

The ISIS terrorists see Jordan’s Western-backed King Abdullah as an enemy of Islam and an infidel, and have publicly called for his execution. ISIS terrorists recently posted a video on YouTube in which they threatened to “slaughter” Abdullah, whom they denounced as a “tyrant.” Some of the terrorists who appeared in the video were Jordanian citizens who tore up their passports in front of the camera and vowed to launch suicide attacks inside the kingdom.

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4354/isis-jordan

[kentonio]

i think that's likely. in the short term a strong show of american force may be enough to save maliki's government from collapse, however given the fact that no iraqis want to fight for it, or even the iraqi state itself, its future looks very bleak.

I don't know though, the BBC said there has been a rush of volunteers to sign up as ISIS get closer to Baghdad. Don't know how big that really is though.

[C0ckney]

the regular army has melted away in most places, but of course that doesn't preclude the rise of local self-defence militias.

this may indeed be something the government does, try to expand existing shia militias and create new ones, to defend baghdad and southern iraq.

[AAAAAAAAH!]

Map from the New York Times website:

[C0ckney]

How can Iraq's government be this weak?

the government seems to have lost everyone's confidence, including that of the army and security apparatus.

i believe also that this is not just a loss of confidence in the government, but also in the state itself. if so few believe in iraq, to the point where its government has to beg the kurds, who also don't believe in the state of iraq, to defend iraqi territory from outside forces, then it doesn't look good for the state's future.

[Sava]

The failure of British arrogance has finally come to fruition.

[Dinner]

The reality is Sunni militias are currently either ignoring or helping ISIS as a way to protest the exclusion of Sunnis from the Maliki government but they're not really all that keen on strict Islamic law. The moment ISIS starts ordering beheadings and religious repression the militias will turn on them so I just don't see ISIS as actually holding territory so much as remaining a terrorist organization instead of a government.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

Uh, oh, maybe not!

[Uncle Sparky]

The Kurds now have control of Mosul. That's all they want.

[C0ckney]

do they? i can't seem to find anything about that.