Reply With QuoteWhich Euro, the Southern or Northern one?
I am probing whether he has any reason to fixate on this particular economic metric, which I suspect is a poor one for whatever question he's actually trying to determine the answer to.
"You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005
Which Euro, the Southern or Northern one?
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Because I owe a lot of money in US $.Originally Posted by Jaguar
JM
(mostly school loans)
Last edited by Jon Miller; May 31, 2012 at 17:47.
Jon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.
USD to PHP is the one I watch. I predict it will briefly spike to 1000:1 the quickly return to ~43:1 the next time I go to the bank as I am trying to be more optimistic...
"tout comprendre, c'est tout pardonner"
Prices of goods and services are generally much more fluid in response to exchange rate movement than wages will be.
"tout comprendre, c'est tout pardonner"
Double-edged sword there. If you're counting on being in a place with a strong "sticky wage" effect, then you're also going to be in a place with high unemployment and other social ills.
"You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005
Like the US?
Dollar index dropped something like 25% from just a couple years previous in 2008 didn't it? Commodities adjust on the fly of course. Wages certainly did not.
Over here in the Philippines it was the opposite story. PHP appreciated about 20% against the dollar from 2009 to 2010. Wages didn't drop because of it.
But if you had known this was going to happen, and you had two similar jobs (salary at the time) denominated in USD and PHP respectively... you'd have been much better off in terms of change in purchasing power to take the PHP one. (Or if back during the Asian financial crisis when PHP went from 2:1 to 40:1 against the dollar, you'd have been much better off with the USD denominated salary job.)
It sounds like Jon is trying to determine if a similar situation will develop in regards to his current job in Europe vs potential jobs in the US.
"tout comprendre, c'est tout pardonner"
1) I work for a company which actively speculates in the market being discussed. I am privy to our current view on that rate, though not the thinking which went into it. There is no way in hell I'm commenting on anything having to do with the fx market
2) at this point, I have substantially more than a self-taught understanding of monetary economics
04-06-04 Killdozer NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Get Rich or Die Tryin'
Damn it, KH! Just tell us when to buy and sell!
“As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
"Capitalism ho!"
FTFY
"My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
This is an interesting question to which I am unable to offer a good answer. But I'm watching with interest as things blow up slowly. It's amazing to watch the tail wag the dog.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
I have been forced to buy gold because the gov of Argentina does not let me buy dollars, and I need contacts in order to buy U$D in the illegal market, which are already like 20% more expensive anyway.
I am no expert, but I think a flight to the dollar has already begun, people selling gold and buying dollars, and changing their euros for dollars. I would very much prefer to get dollars right now.
The dollar is helped not only because of the problems in europe but also because America seems to be growing, some
I need a foot massage
yesterday was a good example of gold still being considered a safe haven. pretty odd, considering it´s just a commodity.
Do you think Spain is going the way of Greece? There appears to be considerable panic right now.
"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...After eight years of this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" — Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, 1941.
yes.
so many things wrong here. very little is being done to ameliorate the situation. the public would not re-elect those politicians that do what is necessary.
Greece is a world apart from Spain. In many respects, Spain works. Greece doesn't even have the institutions necessary to maintain a first-world economy -- e.g., it was impossible to know how much it was spending, even as minister of finance.
That said, Spain is being pushed into the same corner that Greece put itself in. Greece is a failure of Greece, but I view Spain as a failure of Europe.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
how do you mean, a failure of Europe?
Spain is what it is, thanks to Europe. 20 years ago this coutry was a putrid stinkfest, coming fresh out of the clutches of a dictator. European money has built infrastructure in all respects.
All that has been taken for granted by the Spanish. Now that they have to stand on their own feet, the European moneyfaucet is considered a European obligation rather than a temporary right. Instead of changing things around for the better, the established people sit on acquired ´rights´ so that they can ride out the storm and let the next generation take the bad beat. Meanwhile, youth unemployment is officially 50%, of which a large part collect government unemployment checks while doing work on the side. The other half does not accept work that they are offered - below their level. Because the country has been pumping out Masters degrees.
No, this country wholly deserves what it is going to get.
They suffered a massive economic downturn from a housing bubble while stuck in a currency union that prevents them from exercising monetary stimulus at their own discretion. An enormous number of Spaniards are unemployed for no good reason and the fiscal transfers that are necessary to make a currency area workable are not forthcoming. The Eurozone is obviously a failure for Spain. They should have never joined a common currency and they should go ahead and leave. I don't know how you expect them to recover. From your post it looks as though you think they should shut down their universities and have everyone take low-paying jobs.
"South Africa is a shithole. It used to be a decent place." -Ben Kenobi, sharing his wisdom on world history
if you take an uneducated population, educate them, and the amount of knowledge-work jobs stays roughly the same, yes, you´re creating a big problem.
Your assumption that the number of knowledge-work jobs is somehow fixed doesn't make sense considering that there are plenty of countries with higher college graduation rates than Spain and they don't have massive unemployment. If these jobs aren't being created it's because Spain is in a depression.
"South Africa is a shithole. It used to be a decent place." -Ben Kenobi, sharing his wisdom on world history
.
“As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
"Capitalism ho!"
Theoretically Spain did everything economic conservatives wanted them to do and should have been a success story. It's budget was balanced, its public debt to GDP was one of the lowest in Europe, wages and pension obligations were low compared to the rest of Europe, and by and large public spending was well targeted dispite a few white elephant projects (I can recall Business Week pointing out one new airport which is practically empty but even that was part of a military base decommissioning effort and wasn't typical of wider government spending issues). Their big problem is that private banks way over lent, created a bubble, and that bubble has now popped bring down asset prices so that the banks owe more than they have as colateral. A liberal would say they needed more regulation to prevent such speculative bubbles from forming in the first place but American conservatives always push for such deregulation so once again Spain did what the right wing wanted them to do.
The government of Spain was actually pretty responsible (other than listening to American conservatives and not properly regulating banks) and the problem was all in the private sector running a muck.
Last edited by Dinner; June 4, 2012 at 00:01.
"Our scientific power has out run out spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men." - Martin Luther King Jr.
"A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer
Can't you go on vacation to Chile, Paraguay, or Uruguay? It seems like you could buy all the dollars you want while on vacation and just bring them back home in your car trunk.
"Our scientific power has out run out spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men." - Martin Luther King Jr.
"A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer
they have dogs at the borders trained to sniff for dollars (i'm not making this up). besides, people want to take dollars out of argentina, not the other way round.
"The Christian way has not been tried and found wanting, it has been found to be hard and left untried" - GK Chesterton.
"The most obvious predicition about the future is that it will be mostly like the past" - Alain de Botton
yes, they have dogs that detect dollar in the fronteer
Afip-Golden-Dolares-FDG.jpg
dolar-1472198.jpg
People want to take out dollars and put them in Uruguay which is something like the Switzerland of south america.
In the neighbour countries they accept pesos with a 30% devaluation
I need a foot massage
Zoe: I stand by my "failure of Europe" statement. Because of its structure, Europe is finding itself unable to give Spain what it needs. These needs are pretty basic -- the kind of support that the Federal Reserve Board has been providing to the American financial system the last few years.
Investors have recognized this fact and are punishing Europe. I think that Germany should look toward its own interests in a broader sense than they have been doing.
Further, Spain is not Greece. It's not even Italy, from what I've seen.
Last edited by DanS; June 3, 2012 at 21:24.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
Spain does not have the industrial base Italy has in the north.
I need a foot massage
Alright. The dog thing I find hilarious. I don't know why but the whole criminalizing of the moving of money things seems so backwards to me.
"Our scientific power has out run out spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men." - Martin Luther King Jr.
"A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer
what are germany's interests? the failed 'rescues' of greece will cost german taxpayers a fortune. the soon to fail 'rescue' of portugal likewise. with spain teetering on the brink and italy not far behind, keeping southern european countries in the euro is starting to look like a bottomless pit. and it isn't just germany, many northern european countries (spurred on by their electorates) are hardening their attitudes. people are asking the question, is the euro, in its current form, worth all the costs and more and more are concluding no.
there are two things that would work to regain market confidence in the euro.
1) eurobonds.
2) full fiscal and political union.
however both of these appear to be politically unacceptable. the first to german and other northern european voters, the second to french and assorted other voters.
"The Christian way has not been tried and found wanting, it has been found to be hard and left untried" - GK Chesterton.
"The most obvious predicition about the future is that it will be mostly like the past" - Alain de Botton
I just don't think that Spain has been extraordinarily profligate recently -- no more profligate than the US, for instance. The story line doesn't fit with regard to Spain or Ireland. It does fit with Greece, Italy, and Portugal.
It's not my opinion that Spain has done things correctly, of course. Just that normal ways of doing business that could serve Spain well in this situation don't exist. Compare to the support that the BoE and the Fed provided. Unavailable to Spain.
There are more solutions than you list.
Last edited by DanS; June 3, 2012 at 23:11.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
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