What do you think the US to Euro exchange rate will be in 18 months

[Jon Miller]

And why, if you will.

I am concerned about Elections, Greece, Spain, and many more things.

I know you are not the markets, but what do you think the markets will say in 1-2 years?

Right now it is about .8 euro/dollar, a year ago it was <.7, two years ago it was over .8.

What does Apolyton think?

JM

[MikeH]

About the same.

[Dinner]

The Euro will go through a very difficult time when Greece is finally forced out. Germany has been bailing them out but the new Greek government doesn't want to follow through on it's side of the deal so the only logical thing to do is cut them off and throw them out. Germany may try to equivocate for a while and keep throwing good money after bad but in the end Greece can't pay it's debts and really doesn't want to pay its debts so it's smarter to cut them off now and let the world of living hell began for them since it will end up happening anyway and the only question is how much money German taxpayers want to lose before it happens.

Once Greece is finally tossed out the real trauma for Greeks will begin with all imports and exports stopping, gas no longer being at pumps since it's all imported, the shops having nothing but local goods (and the Greeks don't produce **** so they'll be almost entirely empty), and with the several large banks from the countries who loaned them the money going down in flames (and forget about Greece's own banks they'll have been toast long ago). It's Argentina on steroids but maybe, just maybe, if it is traumatic and horrible enough then the lazy. no good, welching Greeks might actually make the needed reforms. They might just deregulate to create jobs, they might sell off government owned companies which currently dominate many industries, they might make it easier to hire and fire, they might lower the minimum wage so companies can afford to hire people, they might get rid of the maze of red tape which prevents people from getting things done in that country, and they might actually make it easier for people to start new businesses, and maybe regular Greeks will finally learn they can't all be lying tax cheats and that someone has to actually pay taxes.

One thing is for sure they've promised to reform over and over but never have actually made any meaningful reforms so I surmise they just haven't been through enough traumatic **** yet to do what is needed and they just need to be shoved into the burning feces of an outdoor cesspit which is on fire. Maybe that will prompt them to do what so obviously needs to be done.

[MikeH]

You managed to post 3 paragraphs of bullshit and still not answer the question.

[KrazyHorse]

Jon, what makes you think you will get any insight as to the right answer? Nobody here is a professional fx speculator, and as the closest thing to one that poly has (closest being purely relative), I simply refuse to answer due to my lacking any real belief that I know the answer.

[Jon Miller]

I am not an FX speculator, but FX plays a huge role in my financial well-being and will for the foreseeable future.

What I can do is read some blogs/etc (Which I do, and would be glad if anyone would point me to more) and learn about other people's observations (because they also make up a minor component of the market, and normal people as a whole make up a potentially major component of the market).

JM

[Kuciwalker]

zero or undefined

[Lorizael]

Are you predicting the collapse of America, the collapse of the Eurozone, or both?

[Kuciwalker]

The former would be infinity or undefined.

[The Mad Monk]

Jon, what makes you think you will get any insight as to the right answer? Nobody here is a professional fx speculator, and as the closest thing to one that poly has (closest being purely relative), I simply refuse to answer due to my lacking any real belief that I know the answer.

On the other hand, we're all just doing this to entertain ourselves, so why the **** not?

[The Mad Monk]

I'll say 1.2, based on the PIGS dominos all falling down and my own chutzpah.

[Elok]

On the other hand, we're all just doing this to entertain ourselves, so why the **** not?

Because it would tarnish the Apolyton OT's previously-sterling record for insightful discussion by experts and accurate prediction of major world events?

[DinoDoc]

I don't care about the Euro. I just want the Pound to go down relative to the Dollar to make my purchases cheaper.

[Dinner]

Speaking of the pound it seems the UK's decision to keep the Sterling and stay out of the Euro was a good one.

[notyoueither]

I've been reading some pretty bleak outlooks recently.

[Dinner]

You managed to post 3 paragraphs of bullshit and still not answer the question.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programme...lk/9725121.stm

Greece will get booted out of the Euro, they will default (I mean officially default since they've already technically defaulted), and, yes, they're going to end up with a worse depression than Argentina had after it defaulted. Read up on the Argentina crisis, it isn't pretty, and you see what will happen to Greece but the Greeks will get it even worse.

BTW loads of economists agree that kicking the lazy Greeks out is really the kindest thing to do long term.

[Dinner]

On the up side every young Greek with remotely any talent will soon be in either North America or Northern Europe so I see cheap but authentic Greek restaurants in our futures.

[gribbler]

I obviously don't know what I'm talking about but I'm guessing a euro will be worth slightly more dollars in the future.

[Elok]

On the up side every young Greek with remotely any talent will soon be in either North America or Northern Europe so I see cheap but authentic Greek restaurants in our futures.

Are you parodying your own incessant tendency to relate everything to trendy cuisine, or do you honestly think that way? Even if it's the latter, it'd probably be better for everyone involved in this thread if you simply claimed the former.

[C0ckney]

Because it would tarnish the Apolyton OT's previously-sterling record for insightful discussion by experts and accurate prediction of major world events?

hey we did successfully predict the great scat porn bubble of 2011. although to be fair a lot of shitty predictions did get made in that thread as well.

[Dinner]

Are you parodying your own incessant tendency to relate everything to trendy cuisine, or do you honestly think that way? Even if it's the latter, it'd probably be better for everyone involved in this thread if you simply claimed the former.

I thought the winking smilie was enough to indicate that it was a joke. Missed that did you?

[Elok]

Even with the smiley, it's kinda weird. But okay, you were joking. If you start a "Which bankrupt-Greek-run restaurant has the best spanikopita" thread in a couple of years, though...bam, zoom, straight to the moon.

hey we did successfully predict the great scat porn bubble of 2011. although to be fair a lot of shitty predictions did get made in that thread as well.

I remember the crash. It was terrible, with all the "squickbrokers" plummeting to the streets of Manhattan in despair. And the worst part was, nobody wanted to touch the bodies to clean them up. Even the garbagemen got the union to intervene. Tragic.

[C0ckney]

i think those images are burned into all our minds forever. i remember those who put all their savings into scat. families and pensioners who had been riding high on the scat wave woke up one day to discover that their futures had gone down the pan.

[Jaguar]

Jon, what makes you think you will get any insight as to the right answer? Nobody here is a professional fx speculator, and as the closest thing to one that poly has (closest being purely relative), I simply refuse to answer due to my lacking any real belief that I know the answer.

You could convey some useful information to the people in this thread. For example, you know what financial instruments to look at to get a general idea of the market expectation. [IIRC they show that the expected exchange rate in a year is about the same as the expected exchange rate now.]

You also seem to have a good self-taught knowledge of monetary economics, so you're probably aware that "which currency purchases more per some arbitrary unit" is a very different question than "how many people are willing to use this currency?" If I say a Euro will probably go for about $1.20 next year, that doesn't imply I think that the Eurozone will be healthy.

[Jaguar]

Of course, I somewhat believe that KH deliberately avoids educating people about things so that he can make fun of them later for being dumb.

[Jon Miller]

The market expectation for next year is obviously priced into the current value.

I am not trying to beat the market, just determine when I should start looking for a new job.

JM

[rah]

.9 is my prediction.

[Jaguar]

Why do you think the exchange rate matters for your job searching? Spain has a currency with high value per unit, but you would receive fewer units. Japan has a currency with a low value per unit, but you would receive many more units.

[Elok]

In 18 months, the people of Europe will be melting down their Euros for makeshift ammunition to hunt with. Their prey? The deadliest quarry of all: MAN.

[gribbler]

Why do you think the exchange rate matters for your job searching? Spain has a currency with high value per unit, but you would receive fewer units. Japan has a currency with a low value per unit, but you would receive many more units.

Are you assuming he's stupid?