Originally Posted by The Mad Monk
You serious?
"My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
This seems very reasonable to me. I think the ones to watch are, in no particular order, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, and the Omaha district of Nebraska, if it gets really exciting.
More longshot surprise states would be Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Colorado.
And if things get real nuts, North Carolina and Indiana could go back to the blue, while a surpise Midwestern state (Michigan, most likely) flips red.
"My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
I think that fewer than 5 percent of Americans have even heard of Goode or the Constitution Party. Still, it's good to see you're as crazy as ever.
Do not take anything I say seriously. It's just the Internet. It's not real life.
Constitution Party getting over 5% of the vote...
Homophobic Canadians be crazy.
"My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
I think that fewer than .5 percent of Americans have heard of Goode.
And he lost the election for his House seat
I hadn't even heard of him, and he's from my state. I bet most of the people in his district have forgotten who he is.
If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
:(){ :|:& };:
Romney might be able to overperform significantly in Massachusetts, but I can't see him winning it outright.
You serious?
If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
:(){ :|:& };:
I was supporting Cain, but due to my ban I couldn't extoll his virtues here.I think that fewer than 5 percent of Americans have even heard of Goode or the Constitution Party. Still, it's good to see you're as crazy as ever.It's been a long and frusterating primary season, especially since the Gingrich space cadets screwed Santorum over.
Scouse Git (2) LaFayette Adam Smith and Solomwi you will be missed
"*** dilectione hominum et odio vitiorum"
303-235, thus:
EVMap.GIF
"I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin
Romney was governor there, right?
You serious?
"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...After eight years of this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" — Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, 1941.
And Al Gore was the Senator from Tennessee, for all the good that did him.
"My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
*sigh* That still stings, 12 years and 2 presidents later.
So you're saying that singular event wasn't so singular?
"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...After eight years of this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" — Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, 1941.
I'm saying that if Romney wins Massachusettes, I will eat the disgusting quasi-food item of your choice.
"My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
QFT
If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
:(){ :|:& };:
He managed to win a gubernatorial election there so anything's possible. We know what the polls say but Mass. voters did vote for Romney before.
Looking at the electoral map, it's evident that Romney MUST win Florida. I don't see any way Romney could realistically win if Obama gets Florida.
"Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
"I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi
The safer bet is something like "if Obama wins at least six states, he will win MA."
It would almost take a literal miracle to make that statement false.
"You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005
You could also say he must win Texas. There's no way Romney could realistically win if Obama gets Texas. But the question is whether it would flip before other states. If Obama wins Florida, he also wins other states he would need.
If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
:(){ :|:& };:
I think you need to put the number higher than six states. I would expect Romney to overperform a generic Republican in Massachusetts.
If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
:(){ :|:& };:
I was giving Romney an edge over the generic Republican. MA is Obama's third-strongest state, just barely behind Hawaii and Vermont.
"You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005
He could do it, but he'd have to pick up Pennsylvania, and that doesn't seem very likely this year.
Last edited by Rufus T. Firefly; May 9, 2012 at 14:15.
"I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin
Karl Rove framed it in terms of a 3-2-1 strategy. The three usually-Republican states of VA, IN, and NC. The two infamous swing states of OH and FL. And one more.
His board looks like this.
I think it is very difficult to come up with a plausible win for Romney that doesn't follow that path. He's not going to carry the entire upper midwest and lose Ohio or Florida.
"You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005
In the Rove framework, the strategy becomes pretty clear. Obama should decide whether to pour his heart and soul into denying one of the "2", or should he just defend all of the states I left "undecided" there?
The OH and FL pair are both slightly Republican-leaning in a typical 50-50 vote, which makes them scary to defend. In contrast, the nine states that could be potential tipping points for Romney are all quite Democratic-leaning, but that's a lot of states to defend.
"You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005
http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=kEd
Same as Rufus's
“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)
Smutto.
"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...After eight years of this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" — Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, 1941.
Please can an Obama love-child come out of the woodwork before November...
"Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
"I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi
What did Guynemer ever do to you?
"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...After eight years of this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" — Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, 1941.
I think Ohio in particular is going to be a tough win for the GOP this year, especially given the unpopularity of their governor.
"I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin
This reminds me very strongly of NFL talk.
1011 1100
It's certainly my favorite spectator sport.
"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...After eight years of this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" — Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, 1941.
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