Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Page of 17
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
Previous 1 2 3 4 5 11 17 template Next
  • #1

    The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

    Post your predicted scenario here. Winner gets bragging rights. We'll do it like this: for simplicity's sake, just post which states (if any) you think will change in the Electoral College, and post the resulting EV total for the candidates.

    To refresh your memories, here is how 2004 turned out:

    BUSH: Alabama-9, Alaska-3, Arizona-10, Arkansas-6, Colorado-9, Florida-27, Georgia-15, Idaho-4, Indiana-11, Iowa-7, Kansas-6, Kentucky-8, Louisiana-9, Mississippi-6, Missouri-11, Montana-3, Nebraska-5, Nevada-5, New Mexico-5, North Carolina-15, North Dakota-3, Ohio-20, Oklahoma-7, South Carolina-8, South Dakota-3, Tennessee-11, Texas-34, Utah-5, Virginia-13, West Virginia-5, Wyoming-3. TOTAL = 286

    KERRY: California-55, Connecticut-7, Delaware-3, District of Columbia-3, Hawai'i-4, Illinois-21, Maine-4, Maryland-10, Massachusettes-12, Michigan-17, Minnesota-10, New Hampshire-4, New Jersey-15, New York-31, Oregon-7, Pennsylvania-21, Rhode Island-4, Vermont-3, Washington-11, Wisconsin-10. TOTAL = 252




    My prediction is that McCain will pick up Michigan, and Obama will pick up Iowa and New Mexico.

    Final score: McCain 291, Obama 247.




    EDIT: Picks thus far...

    Guynemer: McCain 291-247
    Rufus T. Firefly: Obama 289-249
    snoopy369: McCain 283-255
    Winston: McCain 346-192
    Zkribbler: Obama 303-235
    Ramo: Obama 298-240
    Kontiki: McCain 303-235
    Imran Siddiqui: Obama 277-261
    Jon Miller: Tie 269-269
    Monk: McCain 286-252
    The Emperor Fabulous: Obama 287-251
    gwillybj: McCain 272-266
    Impaler[WrG]: Obama 385-153
    Boris Godunov: Obama 338-200
    Ben Kenobi: McCain 348-190
    EPW: Obama 375-163
    Victor Galis: Obama 401-137
    Dauphin: Obama 293-245
    Last edited by Guynemer; October 15, 2008, 18:26.
    "My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
    "The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Oh, and here's a website where you can play with a map to explore different scenarios:

    Yahoo
    http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard
    "My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
    "The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud

    Comment

    • #3
      Obama gets all the states Kerry got except New Hampshire, but picks up Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio.

      Final Score: Obama 289, McCain 249
      "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

      Comment

      • #4
        I think they'll swap MI and OH, and that's it; so McCain 283, Obama 255. This is subject to change based on VP scandal outcomes
        <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
        I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

        Comment

        • #5
          What happens if they both get 269 electoral votes again? It gets decided in congress, right?

          JM
          Jon Miller-
          I AM.CANADIAN
          GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by Jon Miller
            What happens if they both get 269 electoral votes again? It gets decided in congress, right?

            JM
            Pelosi chooses the president and Cheney chooses his Veep. Obama/Palin 09?
            I make no bones about my moral support for [terrorist] organizations. - chegitz guevara
            For those who aspire to live in a high cost, high tax, big government place, our nation and the world offers plenty of options. Vermont, Canada and Venezuela all offer you the opportunity to live in the socialist, big government paradise you long for. –Senator Rubio

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by Jon Miller
              What happens if they both get 269 electoral votes again? It gets decided in congress, right?

              JM
              A lot of money get sent to a college member who voted Obama from Wall Street. McCain wins.
              I'm consitently stupid- Japher
              I think that opinion in the United States is decidedly different from the rest of the world because we have a free press -- by free, I mean a virgorously presented right wing point of view on the air and available to all.- Ned

              Comment

              • #8
                Obama gets all the states Kerry got except New Hampshire, but picks up Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico.

                Final Score: Obama 269, McCain 269
                I could see something like this.

                JM
                Jon Miller-
                I AM.CANADIAN
                GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

                Comment

                • #9
                  From Wiki:

                  [edit] Contingent presidential election by House
                  Pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, the House of Representatives is required to go into session "immediately" to vote for President if no candidate for President receives a majority (270 votes) of the 538 possible electoral votes.

                  In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation has a single vote. To be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of state votes (26) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until a candidate receives an absolute majority of the state votes. This situation would most likely occur only when more than two candidates receive electoral votes, but could happen in an election in which only two candidates receive electoral votes and each receives an equal number of electoral votes.

                  The House of Representatives has chosen the President only in 1801 and in 1825.


                  [edit] Contingent vice presidential election by Senate
                  If no candidate for Vice President receives an absolute majority of electoral votes, then the Senate must go into session to elect a Vice President. The Senate is limited to choosing from only the top two candidates to have received electoral votes (one fewer than the number to which the House is limited). The Senate votes in the normal manner in this case (i.e., ballots are individually cast by each Senator, and not by State delegations). However, two-thirds of the Senators must be present for voting to take place.

                  Additionally, the Twelfth Amendment states that a "majority of the whole number" of Senators (currently 51 of 100) is necessary for there to be a selection of one of the two candidates. This provision essentially prohibits the sitting Vice President from casting a tie-breaking vote in the case of an evenly divided chamber.

                  The Senate has chosen the Vice President only in 1837.


                  [edit] Deadlocked chambers
                  If the House of Representatives has not chosen a President-elect in time for the inauguration (noon on January 20), then Section 3 of the Twentieth Amendment specifies that the Vice President-elect becomes Acting President until the House should select a President. If the winner of the vice presidential election is also not known by then, then under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the sitting Speaker of the House would become Acting President until either the House should select a President or the Senate should select a Vice President.


                  Do the VP candidates count as having gotten electoral votes themselves, or are the votes for the "ticket"?

                  Technically, in a 269/269 split (which I also see as a slim possibility) couldn't it end up Biden/McCain, or McCain/Obama, or Palin/Biden?
                  If you don't like reality, change it! me
                  "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                  "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                  "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    McCain/Obama


                    Uh, no, that couldn't happen.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Obama/Palin

                      McCain/Biden
                      "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by GePap
                        From Wiki:

                        [edit] Contingent presidential election by House
                        Pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, the House of Representatives is required to go into session "immediately" to vote for President if no candidate for President receives a majority (270 votes) of the 538 possible electoral votes.

                        In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation has a single vote. To be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of state votes (26) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until a candidate receives an absolute majority of the state votes. This situation would most likely occur only when more than two candidates receive electoral votes, but could happen in an election in which only two candidates receive electoral votes and each receives an equal number of electoral votes.

                        The House of Representatives has chosen the President only in 1801 and in 1825.


                        [edit] Contingent vice presidential election by Senate
                        If no candidate for Vice President receives an absolute majority of electoral votes, then the Senate must go into session to elect a Vice President. The Senate is limited to choosing from only the top two candidates to have received electoral votes (one fewer than the number to which the House is limited). The Senate votes in the normal manner in this case (i.e., ballots are individually cast by each Senator, and not by State delegations). However, two-thirds of the Senators must be present for voting to take place.

                        Additionally, the Twelfth Amendment states that a "majority of the whole number" of Senators (currently 51 of 100) is necessary for there to be a selection of one of the two candidates. This provision essentially prohibits the sitting Vice President from casting a tie-breaking vote in the case of an evenly divided chamber.

                        The Senate has chosen the Vice President only in 1837.


                        [edit] Deadlocked chambers
                        If the House of Representatives has not chosen a President-elect in time for the inauguration (noon on January 20), then Section 3 of the Twentieth Amendment specifies that the Vice President-elect becomes Acting President until the House should select a President. If the winner of the vice presidential election is also not known by then, then under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the sitting Speaker of the House would become Acting President until either the House should select a President or the Senate should select a Vice President.


                        Do the VP candidates count as having gotten electoral votes themselves, or are the votes for the "ticket"?

                        Technically, in a 269/269 split (which I also see as a slim possibility) couldn't it end up Biden/McCain, or McCain/Obama, or Palin/Biden?
                        It is an Electoral Vote for the VP, I believe.

                        Which means it is between Palin and Biden in that scenario... I'd imagine Liebermann completes his break, makes it a tie and Cheney takes Palin.
                        “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                        - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Didn't you read that? The Veep doesn't get to break a tie in this case.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            In my view, it comes down to Virginia. From the 2004 map, Obama takes Iowa and New Mexico.

                            So it'll either be 274-264 for McCain or 277-261 for Obama.
                            “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                            - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              For all the noise the media the Washington Post has been making about it, I don't think Obama has a very good chance of converting Virginia.

                              Comment

                              Previous 1 2 3 4 5 11 17 template Next
                              Working...
                              X