Caucasus aflame.

[tanelorn]

I was reading about Sochi hosting the 2014 winter Olympics and wondered about all things that go wrong down there.
I mean, that's a big powder keg.

What kept me from meddling with the subject of a Caucasus conflict before, was how to delay an intervention by Russia and/or Turkey/NATO on the side of the locals that should get a free hand more or less, for mutual bashing up to that point.

What if intervention by non combatant powers was researched and built as a WoW by the combatants (breaking a previously locked alliance?)
Delay & randomizer in one package.

So I got down to it today and that's what I've got so far.

The sides, alphabetical order:

ARMENIA
Advantages: Defensive bonus, defensible terrain, random donations from the diaspora, possible Russian support, stable morale.
Disadvantages: Financial deficit, small population, difficult development.Might get caught in a crossfire.

AZERBAIJAN
Advantages: Good & regular oil revenue, profit from random peak oil prices, possible Turkish support and/or Islamic funds.
Disadvantages: Unemployment, population crisis, access to Ucrainian stock materiel mostly, lower morale. Possible Russian oil blockade. Mostly infertile undefensible terrrain.

CHECHENS
Advantages: Excelent irregular units, offensive bonus, high morale, training camps beyond reach.
Disadvantages: Hopeless odds, conventionaly untenable position.

GEORGIA
Advantages: Might avert Russian intervention if it consolidates quickly and stay out of the big game (unlikely)
Disadvantages: Shrinking population, failed economy, devastated morale, disorganised army, civil war. Might be dragged into the general conflict anyway.

RUSSIA
Advantages: Technological/ production advantage. Large (but sluggish) army. Time to build up.
Disadvantages: Inferior morale, struggling economy, drinking problems, population in decline. Long lines of support/communication. Might end up in a nuke duel.

SECESSIONISTS (ABKHAZIA, AJARIA & S.OSSETIA)
Advantages: Possible Russian support. Defensible terrain.
Disadvantages: Hopeless odds.

TURKEY
Advantages: Booming population, balanced army, defensible terrain, Possible NATO support.
Disadvantages: Unstable economy. Deployment elsewhere limits theatre commitment levels.

[curtsibling]

This looks very cool!
The map seems pretty epic also.
I think you should go ahead with this.
And if you need any help, just ask, tanelorn!

What would the terrain properties be, and would the mineral wealth be represented?

[tanelorn]

The first unit. Based on a recent drawing in a Czech site, including the camo. Blow-out ammo racks on both sides of the autoloader. I have a hunch we will see a half-dome armor pack in the front of the real thing, as in the rival experimental tank.

[Gagliaudo]

nice, original idea
pretty, pretty map

[tanelorn]

TY, C.!
Yeah, the other thing got derailed because it was a common concept, in the end, and I lost interest. Actually, I do need help with this. This time I'll ask for it.

Patches of oilfield terrain, nothing fancy. There are significant ore deposits in the area, but most of the actual heavy industry is off the map. Ore in most cases will be a little extra cash, not shields.

[curtsibling]

When you need this, just say the word!

If you need it now, I will look up some oil-well terrain.

[Cyrion]

Originally posted by tanelorn
RUSSIA
Advantages: Technological/ production advantage. Large (but sluggish) army. Time to build up.
Disadvantages: Inferior morale, struggling economy, drinking problems , population in decline. Long lines of support/communication. Might end up in a nuke duel.

Now I wonder how you would implement that!

Idea: house rule forcing the player to use the "goto" command to represent the drunken decisions+behaviour !

PS: nice map and idea, BTW!

[McMonkey]

Excellent idea. Love the map. I watched an excellent documentary about the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 90's. The documentary maker was one of the Armenian soldiers on the front line with a camcorder. He was finding all his old comrades years later to see what had happened with their lives. Powerful stuff!

I have also seen a documentary where a journalist visits the trenches on both sides that is still the front line to this day although the fighting has stopped. They are high up in the mountains and it looks like a scene from the Italian-Austrian front in WW1!

I look forward to this already. Any help you need just shout

[Patine]

This does sound like a cool idea! I think it's largey virgin territory, too. I'd like to see more about this.

[tanelorn]

Thanks! Clarification: The scenario is set in the present, which means that e.g. the Chechens will be divided between Kadyrov's people (in the pro-Russian faction side) and the Islamists. Which means that even if Georgia and Russia don't declare direct war, both Chechen factions will be conducting attacks on both sides of the border (and across the entire N.Caucasus).

[fairline]

Sounds like a good subject for simulation Tim. Need anything?

[tanelorn]

Yes! Actually a ZSU 23-4 shilka would do just fine, whenever get your crafty hands on it cause mine looks like the result of a head-on collision. No hurry whatsoever, this will take some time.

You know, the shilkas were used primarily as an anti-infantry weapon during the Russian sieges of Grozny, to pick off Rpg teams and snipers on rooftops.
The US used the m42 like that in Vietnam, not sure about the m19 in Korea.

Btw everytime Russia recaptures Grozhny, it will pay a money penalty, so a nice Chechen strategy would be classic guerilla strategy: get in- get out.
Unless Putin gets Chechens to do the job for him. Which is what he does, and what effective CI is all about. Eventually.

[our_man]

Sounds like a great original idea for a scenario in a rather forgotten, but very volatile region of the world. Duking it out with out-of-date but irreplaceable Soviet equipment sound like a lot of fun. How are you planning to represent Nagorno-Karabakh?

[tanelorn]

As part of Armenia , and Nakhichevan in a similar role as part of Azerbaijan. Honestly, finding out OOB's about active battle zones is near impossible. Forget about large formations and standard equipment. That's what I'm looking into now. You see, these countries are signatories to the revised CFE, so to pay lip-service to the treaty, they "transfer" troops and equipment to such "hot-spots". There must be 3 times more Armenian tanks in Karabakh than in Armenia proper, for example.
Georgian forces are not even 1/4 of what they once were on paper. The US have a program of re-training and re-equipping them but there is no money...
Lots of reading.

[our_man]

Wikipedia is your friend. I randomly looked up topics concerning the disintegration of the USSR one day and got sucked into reading about the situation there for the past 15 years for an entire week.

[McMonkey]

I have just spent a few hours sorting out my hard drive, organizing scenario folders etc...

While I was doing this I started compiling some of the units I downloaded from the graphics threads and thought of Caucasus Aflame. This collection is a bit of a mess right now. It will take ages to sort all of the units into categories for the scenario league, but I thought they may come in handy for this project!

I think you may have modified a few of them yourself!

How it this project progressing?

[McMonkey]

Woopsie! I uploaded a JPEG by mistake!

[tanelorn]

Not at all a the moment. It is a thing at work, as usual. Come October, I'll have something, depends on where I 'll be posted.

[fairline]

The Shilka is in the modern units thread Tim, along with some other bits and bobs that may be useful

[tanelorn]

Thanks. A lot. Getting down to it asap.
The Chinese J-7's and Type-55 derivatives you included are a nice option for those not in Moscow's favor.
Bits and bobs rule.

[Heresson]

Cool. Looking forward to playing it.

[tanelorn]

I'll do my best.

Aha!
Confirmation of my previous claim about Armenian forces in
Nagorno-Karabach, from the Austrian army site:

Oppositionskräfte:
Bewaffnete Armenische Gruppe
(20 000 - 25 000)
inklusive 8 000 Mann aus den armenischen Streitkräften (in Nagorno-Karabach)

316 MBT (T-72, T-55)
324 ACV (BTR-70/-80, BMP-1/-2)
322 Artillereigeschütze (D-44, D-30, D-20, 2A36)
44 Mehrfachraketenwerfer (BM-21, KS-19)

Not exactly what I call detailed... I suppose that the T72's include 20 tanks missing from Armenian lists and dozens ex-Azeri trophies, less than 100 total.
I mean, this makes statements like "the road to Baku is open" relevant, official lists of regular forces show another picture entirely.

[Heresson]

I don't see Southern Ossetia represented on the map?
A shame the map doesn't reach a bit futhern south, so that the city of Van could be included. I'd like to capture it, playing as Armenia

Are You going to represent Kurds in some way?

[tanelorn]

I am working on it. Ts'hkinvali stands for S.Ossetia, it is NW of Gori. I am still working on the map. Van is a nice objective for Armenia, what an oversight! I thought it was more to the south of the lake...
My research has shown that significant assets of the Turkish 3rd army are stationed in Mamak, closer to Ankara. Some delayed delivery event fixes that without having to enlarge the map.
The thing is that the (major) Eskisehir, Diyarbakir, and Rostov airbases are off-theatre to all directions...
Maps for secondary airfields are hard to spot.
Kurds will be spawned and active as barbs from the start and as event created units for the secessionist civ after some research (to allow for cross-faction rivalry and dubious allegiance).

[Heresson]

I really like the idea of this scenario. Of all the current conflicts etc, Caucasus ones interest me the most... I am partly Armenian, so...

[Heresson]

You should make events assuring that if someone captures Baku, he, not Azeris, will receive oil revenues. It can easily be done.

[EZRhino]

I'm really excited to see more of this Just the discussion in this thread is adding to my interest of this conflict.

[Heresson]

it's also a shame there's no Iran. It is vitally concerned in Azerbaijan

[GhostOfDisco]

Well, there's always the Barbarian slot...

[tanelorn]

Actually, I've considered Iran but I've decided against it.
Iran's geopolitical situation is such that post 2003 intervention is not an option.
Iran's position is complex, because they are ethno-linguistically and historically related to the Christian Armenians but they are (Shia) Muslims, like the Azeris who are (mostly Shia) Turks (or Turkified Iranians -baffling?).
My estimate is that the Armenian/Azeri conflict generally has progressed along nationalistic, not religious grounds.
The Iranian Caucasian border region is populated by Azeris. There are more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan. Despite (or even because of) this voiced some support for Azerbaijan in the early 90s before some wacko leader raised irredentist claims against them. So, during the most crucial point of the conflict Iran supplied electricity to Armenia instead.
A strong & confident Azerbaijan might look south of its border, see. And they have an open dispute over the oil-rich waters of the Caspian sea.
If Iran supports either party openly, they risk internal problems with their Azeri minority.
If they have one strategic trade & political partner in the region, that's Russia. My bet is they wouldn't risk vexing them. Empowering any Sunni radical groups or Turkey goes against their interest too.

I bet they are all focused on capitalizing on the power vacuum the US withdrawal will leave in Iraq. Any intervention here would be a foolish distraction.

Iranians may be a lot of things (as everyone else is), but they sure ain't stupid.
With the Americans currently on their doorstep, they 'd better be very careful. Ahmadinejad sure talks a lot, but that's mostly talk for internal consumption, I think. What the Iranians actually plan to do is not necessarily relevant to what he says.

Besides, Tabriz, the only Iranian population center of consequence in the region is conveniently off the map.