Attack on The Voice

[Hot Mustard]

Beckham has taken a chunk (2.6/3.0) out of Donegeal, but the stalwart city defender (2) archer remains.

How far do we go?

[Arrian]

Krill and I are for sending Zidane into the breach. Then we review again (unless of course we get very very lucky). Personally, even if Zidane dies and Maz's odds are ~40%, I'd press the attack. Only if Maz's odds are really bad (perhaps less than 1/3?) would I stop.

-Arrian

[Krill]

Well, by the time this turn is over I reckon I'll have increased my total post count by around 2% which isn't bad for 1 days spamming.

On a relevent note, this is what happens if we attack with Zidane:

1. If Zidane doesn't hit then we have 3.2% odds of winning with matterazzi. Disengage and stay forted on forest.
2. If Zidane hits once we have 10% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Dissengage and fort on forest.
3. If Zidane hits twice we have 40% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Need to discuss furher.
4. If Zidane hits 3 times we have 80% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Attack with Matterazzi and if we lose ***** because Vox just got extremely lucky. If we win then I'm raising a toast to the RNG God tonight.

[Arrian]

Sounds like a plan to me. The 40% one is really the only scenario that needs much discussion. The rest are pretty clear.

-Arrian

[Harovan]

to Krills plan.

On the 40% case I'd still be in favor of continuing. Stop only on 10%. First, we should be in for some luck after having a not so lucky first roll, and second, ONE skirmisher doesn't make that much of a difference in choking, and for observation purposes we can get another one in position within a few turns.

[Hot Mustard]

Mapping Krill's bullets to voting options:

Originally posted by Krill

1. If Zidane doesn't hit then we have 3.2% odds of winning with matterazzi. Disengage and stay forted on forest.
2. If Zidane hits once we have 10% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Dissengage and fort on forest.

Attack again, stop if we only get to 2.2 (10%)

Originally posted by Krill

1. If Zidane hits twice we have 40% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Need to discuss furher.

Attack again, stop if we only get to 1.8 (40%)

Originally posted by Krill

1. If Zidane hits 3 times we have 80% chance of winning with Matterazzi.

Attack with all three, regardless

[Arrian]

Ahhh! The suspense is KILLING me.

-Arrian

[Krill]

I can't eat when stressed, and I really ought to eat something today...

[Harovan]

Work is killing me. Thank God I'll go home in 10 minutes.

[Hot Mustard]

Me too.

We had 15 responses to the GS Pulse thread, and the PM's last night drew in some other rare sightings, so I think it's reasonable to wait for at least 10 votes or so on this - roughly 1/3 team representation. I am holding off voting right away, myself.

[Krill]

Damn, I voted for attack with all 3 regardless, and that is wrong; my views are expressed exactly in the above options I posted, that we should only attack with the last one if we have the 80% chance, though I'm willing to attack if we have 40% odds if enough people want to do that.

[Arrian]

Screwing up the poll



-Arrian

[Harovan]

Sooooo

I'm at home now, and I have over a pound (480g) M&Ms to appease the RNG gods. Judging by this, Vox should be toast.

[Arrian]

At the very least, you'll have a nice dessert.

-Arrian

[Solomwi]

The potential payoff is good enough to support a continued charge at 33% odds. I voted for the 1.8 option, but would be good with either 1.8 or 2.2 option.

[Krill]

I think we are going to have to do the second attack soon, because it isn't fair on the other teams to just keep on putting this off. Say give it another hour for stragglers.

[Arrian]

I agree, for that reason and also for my own sanity.

You just KNOW we'll get the 40% result and spend another several hours debating.

-Arrian

[Hot Mustard]

I know you two are writhing around in agony, but hang in there!

We're at 5 votes now, 6 if you count me. I expect we'll get the save/turn out tonight, over the 24 hour window, but well under the 48 hour window.

[DeepO]

took option 3, but I'm more in between 2 and 3. I don't think it's a good idea to risk our last skirm, but the next one definately needs to go.

DeepO

[Krill]

So 9 people have voted...are we going to get this show on the road or what HM you're killing us with the suspense.

[Hot Mustard]

Attacked with Zidane - see turn thread.

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Arrian
I agree, for that reason and also for my own sanity.

You just KNOW we'll get the 40% result and spend another several hours debating.

-Arrian

I told you.

Of course.

Ok, we've got a 42% chance of success at this point. As I said in the turn thread, I recommend going for it. Charge!

-Arrian

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by Arrian


I told you.

Of course.

Ok, we've got a 42% chance of success at this point. As I said in the turn thread, I recommend going for it. Charge!

-Arrian

Yes, well you should also note that no one voted to use all three regardless, yourself included.

Perhaps you should start another poll, and make your case for the final Skirmisher to attack.

[Arrian]

I voted to proceed at the 40% chance. I would only stop at the 10% chance (or lower). The same was true of Sir Ralph and Solomwi, and now Krill is onboard.

There are some (one?) people who are unsure about the 40% chance, so there must be further discussion. DeepO, for instance.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Well, in any event my opinion is clear. I'll leave it to others to make the final call. I have to leave work, run some errands, and work on my house. I may log on later to check in, I may not.

Whatever course of action we choose, may the Storm prosper.

-Arrian

[Hot Mustard]

Expecting that the crowd drawn in yesterday will check back in this evening, we should get a clear picture of the team's collective opinion and be able to play it later this evening. I'm going to go out for dinner with the missus, but I'll be back.

I'm hoping to play the turn somewhere between 10pm and 12pm EST.

[Arrian]

I'll be sleeping, dreaming sweet dreams of victory.

-Arrian

[notyoueither]

Don't go ahead.

With the RNG being streaky the stated odds are not the real odds. This is not truely random.

We've already got less than we should expect. The only reason you proceed in this case is if the numbers are in your favour and a bad round doesn't change the end result, or you have a fondness for head hitting wall.

[notyoueither]

As for reasons not to throw the last skirm away...

Diplomacy. We've suffered a loss. Jon Miller can present this to Nana and ACen. The more we lose the better his case is.

Experience. Another CD promotion could cost another 1 or 2 units later to dig Done out of there. Sure, throw one away. How about when it ticks their odds defending against the next wave?

3 archers that would be completely free to do whatever the hell Vox want. Can you say popping up from an inconvenient direction, like beside our copper?

The third attack is very silly in my opinion, given the streaky RNG and less than even odds, and there are reasons not to do it.

[Hot Mustard]

Alas, the voice of reason was too late...

I'm doubtful you could have turned the hawks aside NYE - but take solace, if you can, in knowing you (we) were right.

The bummer with democracies is you have to follow the crowd, even when you suspect they make a wrong turn.