Could we take out China's nuclear capabilities with a first strike?

[Kuciwalker]

nye seems to think we could.

[PuddlewatchHQ]

keep their missles fueled anymore. Yes.

And I hasten to add that we would never consider a first strike as that would be just plain stupid. The US and Chinese economies are linked. Economic catastrophe is a bad thing. And besides the Chinese are our friends. I hope they can view us in the same light.

Edited for the addition of sanity check and spelling.

[Cort Haus]

:generalripper:

[Harovan]

Maybe. It's one of the few things I'd much rather not know for sure, so I would prefer if it was never proven.

[BeBro]

I can, but I rather blackmail them with my superior strength

[Richelieu]

I got nothing better to do this coming Sunday so why not try?

[Donegeal]

Originally posted by PuddlewatchHQ
[China no longer] keep their missles fueled anymore. Yes.

If this is the case, then yes, I would think we could and fairly easily. We'd miss a few by not knowing where they were, but we'd have enough left over to track where high levels of activity were and bomb the left overs.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
nye seems to think we could.

Could you take out their entire nuclear arsenal? No.

Could you take out their capability to hit the continental US? Quite probably.

[Winston]

"Their entire nuclear arsenal" makes it sound like they have gazillions of the things, whereas it's my understanding they have about 100 warheads, all told.

To the poll question, I'd say the answer is yes. I'm sure there's a scenario filed away somewhere that involves such a course of action. Whether there'd be any guarantee of success is another matter, the odds would certainly have to be weighed. But it wouldn't be impossible.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Could you take out their entire nuclear arsenal? No.

Could you take out their capability to hit the continental US? Quite probably.

I'm pretty sure most of their nuclear arsenal is in the form of ICBM warheads.

[KrazyHorse]

No. Only somewhere between 20% and 40% is.

[KrazyHorse]

And secondly, it's the ones not on ICBMs which are harder to track. The US might well know where every ICBM china has ready to launch is.

They do not know where every one of China's warheads are.

[PuddlewatchHQ]

warheads per missle. Assume half the warheads are actually decoys. I'm not sure if they have finished upgrading all their missles to the nice new designs they apparently have acquired in recent years.

As far as I know only one of the SSBNs is actually seaworthy at the moment. Apparently the Chinese Navy is having problems with subs leaking. I'm assuming that means they are having problems with the seal on the shafts as opposed to say actual hull weld issues. Apparently their subs vary widely in quality between the different classes. Last I checked (fall 2005?) they only had two boomers that were even considered for service. One okay the other not good at all.

[KrazyHorse]

130 missles. MIRVed.

AFAIK, this is a large overestimate of their ICBM capability.

Are you sure you're not including medium range missiles as well?

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by PuddlewatchHQ
keep their missles fueled anymore. Yes.

According to wiki they use solid-fueld rockets. Do you need to keep refueling those?

[KrazyHorse]

Chinese ICBMs use liquid fuelled rockets.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Winston
it's my understanding they have about 100 warheads, all told.

Your understanding is incorrect.

Probably more like 250 - 300

[KrazyHorse]

The conventional wisdom on China's launch capability is that they have minimal MIRVs (developmental only). The bulk of their arsenal is in single warhead intermediate range missiles. They have 30 single warhead missiles capable of reaching the continental US. (DF-5)

There are indications that they are attempting to expand their capability to strike the US with MIRVed ICBMs (DF-31, 31A, 41) but it's unlikely that a large number of these weapons are operationally ready and deployed.

[KrazyHorse]

These last ones are solid fuelled 3 stage (IIRC). The DF-5 is liquid fuelled, as are most of the intermediate range missiles. I believe that they also have some short-range tac nukes on solid fuel launch vehicles.

[PuddlewatchHQ]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse

130 missles. MIRVed.

AFAIK, this is a large overestimate of their ICBM capability.

Are you sure you're not including medium range missiles as well?

Someone else on the forum mentioned 130. So I just assumed. I shouldn't have.

There have been many different numbers put forth for Chinese ICBMs. The Chinese have been very unforthcoming on the true number as a matter of policy.

Last concrete number I can recall for silo based is 38ish.

[PuddlewatchHQ]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
The conventional wisdom on China's launch capability is that they have minimal MIRVs (developmental only). The bulk of their arsenal is in single warhead intermediate range missiles. They have 30 single warhead missiles capable of reaching the continental US. (DF-5)

There are indications that they are attempting to expand their capability to strike the US with MIRVed ICBMs (DF-31, 31A, 41) but it's unlikely that a large number of these weapons are operationally ready and deployed.

Some really odd stories have come out of China in the past few years concerning corruption charges against Chinese senior military personnel. I mean extremely odd in terms of the Chinese official response to them. Very large amounts of money missing, etc. Chinese generals being sacked and at least indications of a cover up. Not to mention that it's been admitted by our own officials that we basically have been wrong on how much the Chinese have been spending on their more visible military component let alone the hard to uncover stuff.

Edited for grammar.

[KrazyHorse]

They might have more now. I'm not going to say that I know precisely what their current capabilities are, because I don't.

I'm just trying to provide a basic understanding of the scale of their capabilities, since most of the early posts were far off the mark.

[Winston]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse

Probably more like 250 - 300

Your guessing has not convinced me, I'm sorry to report. So I will stick with my own guess for a while, if you don't mind. You know, the one I made in reply to your comment on "their entire nuclear arsenal". I think such wording is grossly misleading.

[KrazyHorse]

I'm not guessing, you buffoon.

I think such wording is grossly misleading.

I don't particularly care what you think.

[Kuciwalker]

If they have ICBM's at more than 20 different locations, does the situation change? (We only have 20 B-2's, and I don't think we have anything else that can take them out without warning.)

[Winston]

I don't particularly care what you think.

So why did you make a point of posting another guess (don't kid yourself into thinking it's anything more) to counter mine, in a direct reply? Sounds a bit moronic to me, but then of course you wouldn't particularly care about that either..

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
If they have ICBM's at more than 20 different locations, does the situation change? (We only have 20 B-2's, and I don't think we have anything else that can take them out without warning.)

Doesn't need to be without warning.

It's a matter of at least a few minutes until even the most prepared silo can launch.

And B2 strikes are not "without warning". The Chinese would not miss 20 B2s overflying their territory for 2 hours. They might not get a lock on them, but they would see something.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Winston
So why did you make a point of posting[...]

Because you're not the only one here.

[Kuciwalker]

If they see something but don't know what it is I doubt they'd assume it was a preemptive nuclear attack by the United States.

Though if we were to launch such an attack the situation might be different.

xpost

[PuddlewatchHQ]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
If they have ICBM's at more than 20 different locations, does the situation change? (We only have 20 B-2's, and I don't think we have anything else that can take them out without warning.)

I can't count today.

Edited for my lack of math skills.