The Future of North Korea

[VetLegion]

I posted this in another thread, but I think it deserves a topic of its own. Images from North Korea (contrary to popular belief, you can actually go there on a tourist trip nowadays ):

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=82755

So they are as they are, militaristic dictatorship and one of the last bastions of communism and all that.

They have tank roadblocks in the hills:


But they also have roads to block (compare to, say, Africa):


And in cities the traffic is a bit light:


But everything seems clean and organized. The population seems disciplined, fit (OK, that's a bad joke, I know they starve) and hard working. There are kids around in the pictures. It's not easy for people, but they have a future.

To me, it looks like North Korea would just explode with growth if they could somehow get rid of communism. It's one of the places on earth where with little investment many people would almost certainly be much better off. Everything seems to be set up nicely.

Of course, it is also possible that capitalism would actually drop the living standard, destroy the moral fabric and cause a decline in every imaginable way. We can't be sure. What do you think?

Also, would Korea (I admit I don't follow the matter closely) immediately unite if the North went democratic? Which city would be the capital? Who would be the boss, south or north? Who would pay the bills? I think I remember reading that the southerners aren't much thrilled at the prospect.

[SlowwHand]

Where's the "Toast" option? Guess for the first time I'll vote banana.

[snoopy369]

I think that's what Moldavia means...

At least if by 'toast' you mean 'conquered/assimilated by the South" ... there's no 'nuked into oblivion' option for some reason.

[Urban Ranger]

They will be the next Asian Tiger, I think, if Kim can overcome internal resistance and start econmic reforms based on the PRC model.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
They will be the next Asian Tiger, I think, if Kim can overcome internal resistance and start econmic reforms based on the PRC model.

I'd not argue about the 'can'. I'd argue about the 'wants to' ... I at least have yet to have heard anything to make me believe that Kim wants to make his country into a remotely 'reformed' country and not just keep it a tight dictatorship...

China, albeit in some ways still quite the tight dictatorship, has one major advantage... it's a LOT bigger, and thus much harder to keep in control (and thus gains many of the advantages of competitive free market capitalism, even before it loosened up intentionally). DPRK is quite a bit smaller and easier to control.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
They will be the next Asian Tiger, I think, if Kim can overcome internal resistance and start econmic reforms based on the PRC model.

to be an "Asian Tiger" you have to be the best. Cream of the crop in the region. North Korea following the example of the PRC would definately lead to immense improvements in economic growth in the north, but it would remain backward in comparison to south korea in much the same way that PRC remains backward in comparison to Taiwan.

Communist countries have immense hurdles between them and ascention to "tigerhood".

[GePap]

I don;t think NK can go anywhere with its current system. China may be authoritarian, but it still has a system at work. NK is totalitarian, all power trully centralized in a small and probably none too economically minded elite. NK might ape some of what China does, but I doubt it will go anywhere.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by GePap
I don;t think NK can go anywhere with its current system. China may be authoritarian, but it still has a system at work. NK is totalitarian, all power trully centralized in a small and probably none too economically minded elite. NK might ape some of what China does, but I doubt it will go anywhere.

That's a much more well said version of what I meant

[Seeker]

Sudden unification would be a total disaster, much worse than East Germany, comparable to Moldova.

The NK's are totally state centred and dependent. They'd all be on welfare within days and everything would be snatched up by foreign speculators and oligarchs.

Hate to say it, but NK needs a long period of paralell development as they slowly leave the Juche system. The need a 'Putin period', with state companies and centralized power, with gradual liberalization.

If that doesn't happen we'll see everything bought up by unscrupuolous oligrachs and the population turn to drugs, prostitution,illegal porn, and suicide with no jobs no money and no hope, like the Romania in the 90s or something.

A unification in name and foriegn policy alone at the beginning would be best.

[Vince278]

Re: The Future of North Korea

Originally posted by VetLegion
They have tank roadblocks in the hills:

They have those in the South near the borders. The bridges also have charges set. Pictures of those areas were not allowed.

Originally posted by VetLegion
Also, would Korea (I admit I don't follow the matter closely) immediately unite if the North went democratic?

I generally see them merging similar to how Germany did it. Both sides already want to unite (if only on their own terms). However, it will take a long time to dig up all those mines in the DMZ.

[DaShi]

It'll end up an Asian Mexico only with nuclear weapons.

[Proteus_MST]

Re: The Future of North Korea

Originally posted by VetLegion
..

To me, it looks like North Korea would just explode with growth if they could somehow get rid of communism. ...

Maybe just getting rid of Kim Jong Il and his Junta would be enough to change things in NK for the better.

[DaShi]

Like it did in Iraq. Sorry for the smarmy response, but I felt it was necessary.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
They will be the next Asian Tiger, I think, if Kim can overcome internal resistance and start econmic reforms based on the PRC model.

Hilarious sig material. Now for reality. Just what are these people who will carry the imprint of serious malnutrition with them the rest of their lives and who have been brought up in purposeful extreme ignorance going to do in the modern world? The best they can do imo is to be the janitorial / uneducated labor force for South Korea, assuming that the two sides manage to reunite. If not I suspect it is going to take a generation or two at least for them have a decent chance at economic stardom. Of course a hunter-gatherer barter economy is probably a good deal more productive than what they have now, so improvement is likely. There is no where to go but up, but its a very long way up to Asian Tigerhood.

[DaShi]

No, the funniest part is that it is based on Kim doing it.