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  • Disease Model v1.1

    I think I managed to get all the concerns and suggestions from the previous discussion into this new version. If I missed anything please let me know.

    Disease Model v1.1

    The Disease Pools


    Method I
    To determine what diseases a culture starts with, disease pools will have to be established first. There will be an unlimited number of disease pools. The size and location of the disease pools will conform to the following criteria:

    -On each continent, all cultures with similar population densities will belong to the same disease pool (if adjacent).
    -Islands will belong to whichever continent it is closest to (if within the range of ancient boats, 2 spaces I presume).
    -Island chains will be grouped together as a single disease pool if all islands are within ancient boat range (again, 2 spaces I presume).

    Once the disease pools are established, the number of diseases in each disease pool will be established according to the following criteria:

    -The number of diseases in each pool is:
    Climate zone: # of diseases
    Arctic/islands 0-1 (leaning toward 0, maybe a 60% chance)
    Sub arctic/temp. 0-2
    Subtropical /tropical 1-3

    Once the number of diseases in each pool has been determined, the diseases that reside in those pools will be distributed as follows:

    -Tropical pools will receive only jungle and water-borne diseases (excluding HIV and Ebola).
    -Temperate pools will receive only the “normal” and water-borne diseases.
    -Arctic pools will receive only “normal” diseases.
    -Islands or island chains that count as a separate disease pool will get one disease (if any), and that disease will not belong to any other pool
    -Diseases can be “shared” between different, adjacent pools if they still need more to fill in their number of diseases.
    -Every disease that is in more than one pool will receive a strain tag (A, B, C, etc.).

    Then each culture would get its number of initial diseases from its disease pool.

    Initial Diseases

    Initial Diseases will represent those the people have previously been exposed to. Every province of every Civ. and barbarian "Culture" in the game will start with at least one of the 19 diseases modeled in the game. This assumes that each different cluster of any barbarian culture will be treated as a different province (ex. If culture #17 were divided by Roman territory, each half would be treated as a different province). By modeling every province rather than the Civ/Culture as a whole we can allow for greater diversity and realism in the system with only a few extra calculations.
    To calculate the number of initial diseases a Civ has, we would generate a number (1-10) then modify it by population density, sanitation level and climate. Climate would modify the number based on the zone the Province is located in:

    Population Density (not yet determined)

    Sanitation level (will include this only if it varies enough from Civ to Civ)

    Climate Zone Modifier (+/-)
    Sub-arctic/Arctic 2
    Sub-arctic/Temperate 1 (use this if it overlapping both zones listed)
    Temperate 0
    Temperate/subtropical -1 (use this if it overlapping both zones listed)
    Subtropical/Tropical -2

    Once modified for climate zone and density, the number of diseases is as follows (however the number of diseases cannot exceed or be lower than the number in the pool):

    Modified Number Number of Diseases
    1 or less 3 Diseases
    2-6 2 Diseases
    7-10 1 Disease
    More than 10 0 Diseases


    Method II
    The computer will generate a random location for each disease in the game. These locations (a single square, and all adjacent to it, including diagonals) will be the starting points for the disease, and they will spread from there. The locations will be generated according to the following criteria:

    -Tropical squares will receive only jungle and water-borne diseases (HIV and Ebola will be inactive until later).
    -Temperate squares will receive only the “normal” and water-borne diseases.
    -Arctic squares will receive only “normal” diseases.
    -A square can be randomly chosen more than once (i.e. have more than one disease.)


    Method III
    The computer will determine a location within the tropical zone within the largest landmass for a single disease pool to be located. The pool will be 12 squares “circular” and will contain all diseases. Again, HIV and Ebola will be inactive until later.

    Disease Table

    Key
    ^ = Water-borne;
    $ = Jungle;
    * = Ebola and HIV/AIDS are never initial diseases but come in later in the game to preserve some history to disease.

    Str. Increase Codes
    A = 0-2
    B = 0-3
    C = 1-3
    D = 2-4

    Disease Mortality Real World Str. Increase
    Name/ viral, bacterial / rate / Location Code
    Bubonic Plague / B / 15-30% / plains near India B
    ^Cholera / B / 10-20% / Arabia C
    ^Dysentery / B / 10-20% / Most likely Africa A
    $Dengue Fever / V / 10-20% / Most likely Africa A
    ^Diphtheria / B / 5-10% / Most likely Africa A
    $Ebola / V / 15-30% / African jungles D
    Hantavirus / V / 15-30% / plains near India C
    $HIV/AIDS / V / 1-5% / African jungles A
    Influenza / V / 1-20% / Europe C
    Leprosy / B / 1-2% / Arabia A
    $Malaria / V / 5-10% / African jungles B
    Measles / V / 1-5% / Arabia/Egypt A
    $Sleeping Sickness / V / 5-10% / African jungles B
    Smallpox / B / 5-10% / Arabia/Egypt B
    Syphilis / B / 1-5% / America/Caribbean A
    ^Tuberculosis / B / 5-10% / Europe B
    ^Typhus / B / 5-10% / Europe B
    Whooping Cough / V / 1-5% / Europe A
    $Yellow Fever / V / 5-10% / Most likely Africa A

    How Disease Works
    For every disease a culture has it will also have a resistance number for that disease. There will also be a strength number (str.) for each disease. It is by comparing these two numbers we will determine what effects a disease will have:

    -If disease str. is equal to or less than the culture's resistance:
    STR % pop. Loss
    Equal .05% (5 “heads” per 10 million)
    1 less .04% (4 “heads” per 10 million)
    2 less .03% (3 “heads” per 10 million)
    3 less .02% (2 “heads” per 10 million)
    4 less .01% (1 “head” per 10 million)
    5+ less no loss

    *The player would not be alerted to these deaths because it isn't an epidemic; it’s just the natural course of the disease. These would, however, show up in a population losses chart (that would include all causes of death, not just disease based), which the player could access, each turn if he so desires. *
    -If disease str. is greater than the culture's resistance, a percentage check for an epidemic is made. This % chance is equal to 4 times the difference (may need to be adjusted during play testing) between str. and resistance.
    -If there is an epidemic, there is a loss of population equal to the mortality rate generated for the disease plus the difference between resistance and disease str. This loss is for one turn only!

    Some other things to keep in mind:

    -Base resistance is 0 for all diseases, except initial diseases, which are 10.
    -Base disease str. is 5 plus the code (A, B, C or D) increase.
    -When an epidemic occurs, resistance increases by 1-5
    -Disease str. increases by the amount listed for its str. increase code whenever pop. density increases and/or sanitation levels decrease.
    -With the discovery of genetic engineering a civ could create new diseases or more powerful strains of existing diseases for use in biological warfare. We do need to make sure that the AI for other civs “understands” the risks associated with this. They would be just as susceptible to the engineered disease also, unless they made themselves a cure first…

    Spreading Disease
    Whenever any kind of contact is made between two civs/cultures (merchants, armies, migrations, etc.) there would be a 10% chance of the disease spreading. Also when a unit encounters jungle, there will be a 5% chance of it catching a jungle disease and possibly bringing it back to its homeland.
    Ebola and Aids will have a 5% (just as any other jungle disease) chance of infecting anyone who travels in the jungle, however only after whatever turn the year 1900 (maybe even later) occurs on.
    When contact occurs, including jungle travel, add 5% per head to the chance of catching a disease.

    Other Modifiers
    -Infrastructure could help reduce casualties of disease.
    -Famine will reduce resistance temporarily, while famine continues, by -3 per turn (cumulative).
    -Technology- some will have individual effects on diseases, chance of spreading or Mortality rates (like vaccinations will cure some diseases).
    -Overcrowding, poor sanitation, poor nutrition, and water supply reduces resistance
    -Some techs will increase the rate of disease str. increases (for example: vaccinations will cause viral diseases to “evolve” at a faster rate, creating super diseases).

    Eradicating Disease
    Krenske proposed this multinational “wonder” and I think it is a great idea. However, I don’t see it as a wonder so this is what I propose:

    A treaty only allowed under the United Nations, simply because most countries, I think, would not allow the large amount of people necessary to complete the task into their country for whatever reason. So with the U.N. backing the treaty a disease could be eradicated throughout the world, as smallpox was in real life.
    To accomplish this at least one nation would have to have a medical tech level of a certain level (TBD), and the project would also cost lots of money for supplies, etc., along with a number of turns based on the population of the planet at that time. There are still a few details to add to this but I think everyone should get the idea. What do you think?

    Strains

    After much thought on the subject, I’d have to say the best thing to do is to model disease without strains and see how it works. If it’s great as is, then leave the strains out. But if the model lacks that certain “flare” we could later spice it up with strains. But I’ll leave the basics here just in case.

    Each disease will have several strains active until sufficient contact has turned it into a single strain. An example would best explain this:
    The Greeks have smallpox (strain one) and the Egyptians have smallpox also (but strain two). Upon contact & transfer of both strains between the 2 civs, there would be a flare-up (+10 to disease str. for one turn) of the disease as the two disease pools collide and meet new cultures. Then these two strains would be annialated and would become strain three (a new strain) within both civs.
    Now if the Greeks had given the Romans strain 1 previously but no longer had contact with them, strain 1 would become strain 4 when the Greeks and Egyptians met and created strain three (strains one and two would be annialated).
    The player would never see strains; they would only help simulate flare-ups of disease as disease pools collide. They would also simulate a decrease in flare-ups as sufficient contacts are made between cultures thereby increasing the size of the disease pools.

    Agricultural Disease

    Agricultural Disease, I believe, would best be handled as a certain percentage lost to disease each turn (rather than a complicated model) with techs like pesticides reducing this %, simply because it will really only affect food production, unless we use limited timber resources.

    [This message has been edited by Toubabo_Koomi (edited February 03, 2000).]

  • #2
    Overall I think this is a good comprimise.

    Disease pools

    I would like a modification of method III. That is that there are disease pools based in every major tropical zone (in a world based on this one there would be 3). From there diseases would spread.

    Also diseases originated in water also. We should prob have 1-2 generated in water reguardless of the model used. We would only need 1 location to start it/them from and it too would be in the tropical region.

    Strains

    First off I'm glad ur not totally dismissing strains yet. I really like the idea and it would make it IMO much more realistic with little more computing time.

    If u do decide to use them, there would never be 1 strain, atleast for long. In fact quite the opposite. FE AIDS/HIV originally had one strain, but now has 4 main strains and dozens of minor strains.

    Agricultural Diseases

    It should also affect animals that aren't generally used as food such as horses and oxen.
    Which Love Hina Girl Are You?
    Mitsumi Otohime
    Oh dear! Are you even sure you answered the questions correctly?) Underneath your confused exterior, you hold fast to your certainties and seek to find the truth about the things you don't know. While you may not be brimming with confidence and energy, you are content with who you are and accepting of both your faults and the faults of others. But while those around you love you deep down, they may find your nonchalance somewhat infuriating. Try to put a bit more thought into what you are doing, and be more aware of your surroundings.

    Comment


    • #3
      LGJ,

      I agree there should be some across all jungles not just one pool. Just that there should be one holding most (something like 75%) of the diseases (this would be the "cradleland" of mankind). I also figure this is the best way to do it, because there will be many things going on when a game is created, and we don't want this part to take too long.

      On the water diseases do you mean that they come out of Lakes or rivers? I think what you mean is already covered by the water-borne diseases I mention, but don't define in the model. These are those that aren't spread by direct animal/human contact, but rather from animal(or other human) to water to human.

      Originally strains were just meant to simulate flare-ups of disease when cultures meet, which always seemed to happen. And with the +10 to disease str. against the civ that just aquired it, human loss would be devastating. It truly wasn't meant to simulate actual strains of a disease like you are defining here... although the reason I didn't dismiss them yet is, that road may actually lead to some interesting possibilities.

      Loss of animals in the field due to disease would, I think, really be too small to monitor. Right? However, "food"-animal loss to disease would be alright, if we are going to use separate units of food for animal and plant. If we are, yes it must be there, but if not just "agricultural disease" could mean both animal and plant.

      I just wanted to also post here that I'm going to include a section, later, dealing with diseases that emerge later in the game (the Ebola and AIDS and maybe others).

      Comment


      • #4
        TK:

        It looks good! I could use a couple more examples in some places so I can figure out exactly what is supposed to go on... I agree with you that the "out of Africa" thing might be realistic, but it seems to me to be really imbalancing. However, it wouldn't be very difficult to change between your three alternatives, so when we finally get the disease model working we could try them each out and see what people think.

        Project Lead for The Clash of Civilizations
        A Unique civ-like game that will feature low micromanagement, great AI, and a Detailed Government model including internal power struggles. Demo 8 available Now! (go to D8 thread at top of forum).
        Check it out at the Clash Web Site and Forum right here at Apolyton!

        Comment


        • #5
          On the issue of "Spreading Disease":

          1) Remember, every tile in Clash is going to be populated. That means that Diseases could spread very quickly to every part of the world. After all, the various cultures and civs are constantly interacting with one another (in Demo 4, anyway!) Keep that in mind when developing your "chance of spread" percentages.

          2) Many diseases cannot spread to a different type of climate. For example, Malaria and Yellow Fever would never be able to propagate into a European-type climate.

          3) Some diseases are VERY carrier dependent. For example, "Sleeping sickness" can only be transmitted by the Tse-tse fly, and THEY reside in known regions and areas. During the WWI conflict in German East Africa the Germans carried maps identifying the "tse tse fly zones, and avoided them. The Allies didn't take this simple precaution and suffered devastating losses to men and animals. There's a similar relationship between Plague/Rats and Yellow Fever/Mosquitos.
          To La Fayette, as fine a gentleman as ever trod the Halls of Apolyton

          From what I understand of that Civ game of yours, it's all about launching one's own spaceship before the others do. So this is no big news after all: my father just beat you all to the stars once more. - Philippe Baise

          Comment


          • #6
            Mark,
            Please let me know what areas need examples, I thought I was fairly clear on everything, but apparently not.

            "Out of Africa" thing is both realistic and playable I believe. The cultures there would have to deal with the deaths from all these diseases and they would spread fairly slowly so other cultures who gain them would have time to adjust to the major losses, or at least that's my goal.

            Kull,
            1.) There should be a maximum number of diseases that can be spread per contact, probably based on the resistance rates since that represents how much the disease is diffused within the population.

            2.) Actually there have been outbreaks of malaria in France and if I remember correctly yellow fever also, but I get your drift here. I think somewhere in the model there was a statement that jungle (i.e. mosquitos) and water-borne diseases (i.e. bacteria that thrive on warmth) would not travel into subarctic zones or higher, if not, imagine it there.

            3.) You're right, but the mosquito or fly population can boom, and if it does they will migrate, spreading the disease. That's real life, for a game I think the climate zone limitations are enough.

            Comment


            • #7
              TK:

              I just meant something like the examples that you had in the first one. For instance... an army of a civ with thus and such diseases and resistance invades the land of another civ. What happens turn by turn. This sort of thing is useful for both educational purposes and spotting potential flaws in the model.
              Project Lead for The Clash of Civilizations
              A Unique civ-like game that will feature low micromanagement, great AI, and a Detailed Government model including internal power struggles. Demo 8 available Now! (go to D8 thread at top of forum).
              Check it out at the Clash Web Site and Forum right here at Apolyton!

              Comment


              • #8
                I hope this is what you wanted, Mark. I don't have an example of how disease spreads right now, because I'm not too sure of the details yet myself.

                An example of how disease works:

                Civ A and Civ B meet for the first time {Civ A has Smallpox (str. 12, resistance 14) and Civ B has Hantavirus (str. 10, resistance 10)} and each give the other it’s initial disease. Let’s take a look at what will happen the 3 turns after both diplomats (armies, explorers, etc.) end their own turns in their own home Civ. We’ll assume one province with 10 million people for each Civ.

                CIV A-- They loose .03% of their population every turn due to smallpox because it is 2 less than their resistance rate. But this turn they also have a new disease, Hantavirus (str. 10), which they have no resistance to. The check is made (3 times the difference of str. and resistance, which is 30% in this case) and a 17 is generated, we have an epidemic, so they loose an additional 20% (let’s just assume that the computer randomly generated 20% because it’s between the range, 15 to 30 percent, listed for the mortality rate on the chart). In addition to that 20%, because this is an epidemic, we must add the difference of str. and resistance, which is +10 in this case, which brings us up to 30%. So that’s a total of 30.03% of population loss, or 3,003,000 people (3,000,000 for Hantavirus and 3000 for smallpox). Then the next turn, their resistance for Hantavirus will go up from 1 to 5 (randomly determined). Disease str. will still be greater than resistance so the epidemic may continue. Let’s assume a 5 was generated and now their resistance to Hantavirus is 5. This time the check is made (3 times difference, which is now 15%) and a 74 is generated, no epidemic this time. Then on the third turn after acquisition a 16 is generated, still no epidemic, but they still continue to loose people from smallpox. That’s a grand total of 3,009,000 people lost.

                CIV B—They loose .05% of their population every turn due to Hantavirus because it is equal to their resistance rate. This turn they also have a new disease, Smallpox (str. 12), which they have no resistance to. The check is made (3 times the difference of str. and resistance, which is 36% in this case) and a 49 is generated, we have no epidemic, so they loose 5000 due to Hantavirus but none for smallpox. Next turn another check is made this time a 28 is generated, and now we have an epidemic. They loose an additional 6% (let’s just assume that the computer randomly generated 6% because it’s between the range, 5 to 10 percent, listed for the mortality rate on the chart). In addition to that 6%, because this is an epidemic, we must add the difference of str. and resistance, which is +12 in this case, which brings us up to 18%. So that’s a total of 18.05% of population loss, or 1,805,000 people (1,800,000 for Smallpox and 5000 for Hantavirus). Then the next turn, their resistance for smallpox will go up from 1 to 5 (randomly determined). Disease str. will still be greater than resistance so the epidemic may continue. Let’s assume a 3 was generated and now their resistance to smallpox is 3. This time the check is made (3 times difference, which is now 27%) and a 15 is generated, the epidemic continues. This time the computer generates a 10% for mortality rate (the maximum for smallpox), so that’s 10% plus the difference of nine, or 19%. That’s a total of 19.05% of population loss this turn, or 1,561,148 people, for a grand total of 3,366,148 people lost in the 3 turns following the acquisition of smallpox.
                [This message has been edited by Toubabo_Koomi (edited February 09, 2000).]

                Comment


                • #9
                  Not to be picky but the mortality rate would be slightly lower on Civ B for the second turn since they'd have just lost ~2 million people so they'd have only ~8 million and the 19.05 would be determined from that number.
                  Which Love Hina Girl Are You?
                  Mitsumi Otohime
                  Oh dear! Are you even sure you answered the questions correctly?) Underneath your confused exterior, you hold fast to your certainties and seek to find the truth about the things you don't know. While you may not be brimming with confidence and energy, you are content with who you are and accepting of both your faults and the faults of others. But while those around you love you deep down, they may find your nonchalance somewhat infuriating. Try to put a bit more thought into what you are doing, and be more aware of your surroundings.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Thanks LGJ, I wrote that so quick, I hadn't even realized I messed up. But anyway I fixed the problem.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I was thinking tonight about diseases and remembered several things:
                      1> Many diseases don't have the results (deathwise) occur sometimes for many years. Although for the earlier time periods when turns might be 10-20 years the model of determining deaths each turn is fine, later on it won't be right, esp if there is a new diease like that (AIDS/HIV comes to mind).

                      2> Diseases like AIDS/HIV don't in and of themselves kill the host. Theoretically a person could live an almost normal and healthy life if all they ever came in contract with disease wise (and other things like poison weren't used). AIDS/HIV lowers the immune system in general, that's basically all. If ur going to name diseases based on our actual history u should incorperate this idea.

                      3> The third thing has do to with strains. Its not about them, but a question of how u will impliment the results without strains.

                      3A> U can get shots to help u be resistant to various flu strains FE. However, u currently can't get them for all of them. The thing is lets say you happen to get it to 99%, but one of the few strains that isn't covered u come in contact with. Now lets say this is a weak strain, but still enough to do damage. Well because u do have a shot ur immunity to flue in general will have prob gone up, but u aren't resistant to this one in particular. Lets also say a powerful strain comes along at the same time, but u have got a shot. U'd acutally be more likely to catch the lower powered one than the higher powered one. In the model u have right now, its the higher one that wins, no matter what.

                      3B> Strains develope for survival and differentiate just like most species do, only more rapidly, so they can survive. So lets say Stain X and Strain Y appear, they could both have the same power level, but the population where Strain X originated would do less than Strain Y would to the same population. Without strains u currently have no way of dealing with this.

                      4> U should be able to customize disease names.

                      5> U should also show the amount of people that are very sick, but not dead since this could have effects on economic, military etc.
                      Which Love Hina Girl Are You?
                      Mitsumi Otohime
                      Oh dear! Are you even sure you answered the questions correctly?) Underneath your confused exterior, you hold fast to your certainties and seek to find the truth about the things you don't know. While you may not be brimming with confidence and energy, you are content with who you are and accepting of both your faults and the faults of others. But while those around you love you deep down, they may find your nonchalance somewhat infuriating. Try to put a bit more thought into what you are doing, and be more aware of your surroundings.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        TK:

                        Thanks for the examples!

                        Can you sometime try to dimension how much population density needs to change for the disease to get worse, and the influence that sewers and modern medicine have?
                        Project Lead for The Clash of Civilizations
                        A Unique civ-like game that will feature low micromanagement, great AI, and a Detailed Government model including internal power struggles. Demo 8 available Now! (go to D8 thread at top of forum).
                        Check it out at the Clash Web Site and Forum right here at Apolyton!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Mark, or anyone else for that matter, let me know if you need more examples of anything to help clarify a rule. I'm still working the other things out.

                          LGJ,

                          1.) I was thinking when the turns decreased in years to say 5 or 1 year per turn the mortality rate % would be figured normally but spread out over 1 to 5 turns depending on the number of years per turn. What do you think?

                          2.) You're right, they don't actually kill but at the same time if you didn't have AIDS you most likely wouldn't die of the most common thing AIDS patients die of (which is Pneumonia). Pneumonia in itself isn't "epidemic" so I think the best way to handle it in the game is to have AIDS work just like other diseases.

                          3.A.) Influenza is the only disease (without stretching reason) that behaves like this. That is why it has a Mortality rate of 1 to 20%, which we could probably boost to 1 to 30%. But to add a whole new element to the system for one disease seems unreasonable to me. And also, there a 17 diseases, from the beginning of the game and 2 that come in later, with these and the amount of time to develop high enough resistance to keep the diseases at bay (even excluding my first point), it really doesn't seem necessary to me anymore.

                          3.B.) The fact that mortality rate isn't always the same but in fact is re-generated each time there is an epidemic should simulate this well enough.

                          4.) I totally agree it's especially needed for scenarios and when you engineer your own.

                          5.) This would be helpful when the mortality rate deaths are spread out over a few turns (later in the game), but I don't see it being too useful when there are 20 to 50 years per turn (they're going to die next turn anyway).

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            1.) I was thinking when the turns decreased in years to say 5 or 1 year per turn the mortality rate % would be figured normally but spread out over 1 to 5 turns depending on the number of years per turn. What do you think?

                            That might be okay. Could u give an example how that works?

                            2.) You're right, they don't actually kill but at the same time if you didn't have AIDS you most likely wouldn't die of the most common thing AIDS patients die of (which is Pneumonia). Pneumonia in itself isn't "epidemic" so I think the best way to handle it in the game is to have AIDS work just like other diseases.
                            ------
                            I don't think its really ness. and forgive me but IMO it is ignorant to say that all diseases attempt to kill there host. I think if u have historical diseases they should be as historically accurate as possible w/o making the model too complex and having AIDS simply lower the immunity levels of whoever has it really isn't that hard.

                            3.A.) Influenza is the only disease (without stretching reason) that behaves like this. That is why it has a Mortality rate of 1 to 20%, which we could probably boost to 1 to 30%. But to add a whole new element to the system for one disease seems unreasonable to me. And also, there a 17 diseases, from the beginning of the game and 2 that come in later, with these and the amount of time to develop high enough resistance to keep the diseases at bay (even excluding my first point), it really doesn't seem necessary to me anymore.
                            ------
                            It really shouldn't be that hard, but like u said we can wait and see how the model goes w/o strains. And actually most diseases prob do act like this (viral ones atleast) but the thing is there around hudreds to thousands of strains.

                            3.B.) The fact that mortality rate isn't always the same but in fact is re-generated each time there is an epidemic should simulate this well enough.
                            ------
                            What do you mean exactly?
                            4.) I totally agree it's especially needed for scenarios and when you engineer your own.
                            -------
                            Then to do so if u want things like AIDS and such u should have them act historically like they do.

                            5.) This would be helpful when the mortality rate deaths are spread out over a few turns (later in the game), but I don't see it being too useful when there are 20 to 50 years per turn (they're going to die next turn anyway).
                            -------
                            Not ness. Take TB for example. Historically many people have died within that range period but there are actually 2 types of TB hosts, carriers and active. Carriers simply are infected and that's all. Active TB hosts have the full blown disease (I know cuz i am a carrier). Now modern medicine helps prevent carriers from becoming active, but even throughout history there were a number of people who could be carriers and not die from it. Also the spread of something like TB wouldn't fit under some of the ways most diseases are spread since TB needs long-term relationships to do so, so a roaming merchant can't spread it, but a migrating people can.
                            Which Love Hina Girl Are You?
                            Mitsumi Otohime
                            Oh dear! Are you even sure you answered the questions correctly?) Underneath your confused exterior, you hold fast to your certainties and seek to find the truth about the things you don't know. While you may not be brimming with confidence and energy, you are content with who you are and accepting of both your faults and the faults of others. But while those around you love you deep down, they may find your nonchalance somewhat infuriating. Try to put a bit more thought into what you are doing, and be more aware of your surroundings.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              1.) # of years per turn / range
                              10 / range of 2 turns
                              5 / range of 3 or 4 turns
                              1 / range of 5 turns
                              * I'm using civ years per turn here since I assume we'll do something similar.

                              What all that means is when there are 10 years per turn the death caused by an epidemic will be spread over 2 turns. An example:

                              You have 10,000,000 people in the province when an epidemic of Ebola hits. The mortality rate for ebola (15 to 30% range) is determined just like before and let's assume a 30% mortality rate was generated. Now that's 3,000,000 people who will die from the disease. But because there are 10 years per turn now these deaths will be divided between 2 turns. 75% (2,250,000) of these 3 million will die the first turn and the other 25% (750,000) the second.

                              The same technique will be done when years per turn reaches 5 years or 1 year per turn. The following chart shows the percentages of pop. loss for each category of "years per turn."

                              / turn/ turn/ turn/ turn/ turn/
                              years / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 /
                              10 / 75%/ 25%/ - / - / - /
                              5(3 turns)/ 60%/ 25%/ 15%/ - / - /
                              5(4 turns)/ 50%/ 20%/ 20%/ 10%/ - /
                              1 / 40%/ 20%/ 20%/ 10%/ 10%/

                              2.) I didn't say diseases always attempt to kill their host, but that's what we're modelling about disease... the deaths they cause. Now we could lower the resistance of a civ that has aids but that would be like saying every citezen in the country has aids, which is incorrect.

                              3A.) No, I'd have to say after all the research I did on diseases I'd have to say Influenza is truly the only disease that has such varying strengths between strains. But as I think more about the strains it seems impossible without them to have genetically engineered diseases. By this I mean what if I wanted to throw smallpox at an enemy, but he already has the disease (and a fairly good resistance to it). It would not be as devastating as it should be without the strains system because he would already have some resistance to the disease (even though it's more like a totally new disease).

                              3B.) Your original post, "Strains develope for survival and differentiate just like most species do, only more rapidly, so they can survive. So lets say Stain X and Strain Y appear, they could both have the same power level, but the population where Strain X originated would do less than Strain Y would to the same population. Without strains u currently have no way of dealing with this."

                              The mortalitiy rate may be 15% this time but 30% next time. This sort of simulates what you're speaking of (although I admit it's not a great simulation). The only way (without strains) I can see to make it a better simulation would be to (over time) have the ranges of mortality rates decrease some. So for example Hantavirus might go from a range of 15% to 30%, to a range of 5% to 20%.

                              4.) I don't see what that sentance has to do with customizing the names of diseases, which is essentially just renaming them.

                              5.) I see what you're saying but the current model doesn't show sick people just dead ones. This isn't to say that sick people aren't important, it's just that if they don't die of the disease it's just not necessary for this model.

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