***Before you read any furher, be warned this is far from complete. I just wanted you to see what direction I was taking with this and if you could find any inherent flaws with what is written so far.***
Natural Disaster Model
FLOOD: -There will be cyclical river floods occuring within a random 4, adjacent, square area of every major river system (one that is at least 20 squares long). These cycles will range from 100-500 years (I put this in years because we don't know the length of the turns yet). These will be of a level 00-02 on the chart.
-There will also be flash floods occuring using the following formula to determine the chance of a flood occuring: [(% of water * # of major rivers) + (random # between -5 and +5)] divided by 30(round all numbers up). These will be of a level 00-05 on the chart.
-When a hurricane/cyclone strikes land there will be a percentage chance equal to the % of pop. lost of a flood occuring within the same square the same turn, these being level 01-05 on the chart (For property loss only, death by water is already figured into the hurricane formula). 1-3 random adjacent squares will have half the % chance of a flash flood occuring (levels 00-04).
-Earthquakes occasionally cause flooding. There will be a 3% chance whenever an earthquake hits on a coastal square that a flood occurs. These being of level 00-02 on the chart.
DROUGHT: -Droughts will occur using the following formula to determine the % chance. [(100 - % of water - # of major rivers) + (random # between -5 and +5)] divided by 3 (round all numbers up). These will be of levels 01-20 on the chart, however they do not cause pop. loss but instead they cause crop loss.
VOLCANO: -The chance of a volcano erupting will be determined by the level of activity from the map model. Volcanoes will be of levels 00-20 (some techs and improvements will decrease the levels of death a volcano can reach on the chart), with a 10% chance of increasing the percentage. If the percentage is to be increased, it is a random 1-50% added to that listed on the chart.
EARTHQUAKE: -The chance of an earthquake striking will be determined by the level of activity from the map model. Earthquakes will be of levels 00-20 (some techs and improvements will decrease the levels an earthquake can reach on the chart).
HURRICANE/CYCLONE: -There will always be 3-10 storms per turn. They form in the tropics and head towards a random coastal square in a northwesterly direction. These will be of levels 00-20. When they strike land they may cause flooding in the square and in adjacent squares (see floods section). Any ship that happens to be caught in the path of a storm will have to make some sort of "seaworthiness" check to determine if it sank or not.
For displaying messages to the player, we can assume the following catagories:
catagory 1 (level 00)
catagory 2 (levels 01-05)
catagory 3 (levels 06-10)
catagory 4 (levels 11-15)
catagory 5 (levels 16-20)
The "discovery" of meteorology allows for forcasting and evacuating of coastal areas and therefore reduces the storm's pop. loss to negligible amounts but it still causes the same amount of property damage as it would normally have.
LANDSLIDE/MUDSLIDE: -When an earthquake or volcano disaster occurs, there will be a chance of a landslide occuring. This chance is equal to half the % of pop loss. These will be of levels 00-10. Mudslides occur when flash flooding occurs. There will be a % chance equal to double the % of pop. loss for the flood. Both mudslides and landslides only occur on hilly or mountainous terrain.
TSUNAMI/TIDAL WAVE: - This disaster occurs when an oceanic volcano eruption or earthquake occurs, (Land based earthquakes cause these if it's strength was at least level 16. They travel up to 5 squares into the ocean moving away from the coast where the earthquake occured. Each level is one square the wave can travel) Waves originating in the ocean are of levels 00-20 and strike a coastline of 2 squares per 5 levels of power on the chart. Other waves are of levels 00-10 on the chart and cover the same area as oceanic waves.
For purposes of displaying messages to the player, tsunami is used for eastern cultures and Tidal wave for western.
FIRES: -"Cities" with a population of 10 "heads" (10,000 people), or more, have a % chance equal to 1/10th the # of heads per turn of a fire catching (some techs and improvements will decrease this). These fires would be of levels 00-20 (some techs and improvements will decrease the levels a fire can reach on the chart).
level population property loss= the number of people lost times 5-15 in CC (clash cash) to repair the
20 loss of 40% damage done by the disaster. If the government/player does not pay to repair it the people
19* loss of 35% will do it on their own, but will resent the ruler for it and no money will be made off of
18* loss of 30% that square until half the amout is paid off. Even then only half the money is made.
17* loss of 25% Floods, volcanoes and hurricanes have an equal percentage of crop loss, earthquakes only
16* loss of 20% cause one fourth the percentage of crop loss.
15* loss of 15%
14 loss of 14%
13 loss of 13%
12 loss of 12%
11 loss of 11%
10 loss of 10%
09 loss of 9%
08 loss of 8%
07 loss of 7%
06 loss of 6%
05 loss of 5%
04 loss of 4%
03 loss of 3%
02 loss of 2%
01 loss of 1%
00 No Casualties (but treat as 1% for property loss)
* = These always receive a random 0%-4% modifier
FAMINE:-(Famine can be handled on a provincial basis.) Much of the food a civ can produce will be lost to insects, rodents, spoilage and fungus, not to mention natural disasters like floods. New technology and infrastructure improvements will eliminate some of the loss.
The following will simulate this:
x% is lost to insects and rodents in the field
x% is lost to insects and rodents in storage
x% is lost to insects and rodents in storage
Crops from the field (those gained that turn, before any is eaten by the populace) are reduced by the % above. Then the populace eats what is left, if there is extra it goes to storage, if there is not they eat from the storage, but not before the storage is reduced by the 2 percentages above. A famine begins on the turn there is no food left in storage or the "granary" is lost and there are people that still need to be fed. There will still be food produced and people will still be fed but prolonged famine inevitably causes death.
POLLUTION:-Oil spills (from downed merchant vessals carrying oil) causes
-Radiation (from nuclear meltdowns and weapon detonations) causes increased death rates from cancer and increased deformaites. Also causes decreased crop output.
-Smog (caused by factory output and vehicle emitions) causes increased death rates due to increase in cancer.
-Toxic waste (output from factories) causes increased death rates due to contaminated water.