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Thue
Freeciv Developer
Copenhagen, Denmark
Jan 1970
time: 09:10
29-09-2008 14:29 | www
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Thue asks stupid basic economics questions Get a bigger avatar today!


So I have a few questions:

Where will the $700 billion (at a time...) for the current bailout come from? Since the Federal Reserve issues money, can they not just say "*poof* - we now have $700 billion"?

By that line of though, why does the United state government have debt at all? If the US has a $400 billion deficit, then why not just magically have the fed create $400 billion in $100 notes, and pay with that?

Ecthy
Civilization II MultiplayerApolytoners Hall of FameSpanish Civers
Emperor
Mar 2000
time: 09:10
29-09-2008 14:38
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Inflation.

Imran Siddiqui
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Jan 1970
time: 03:10
29-09-2008 14:38
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I believe they are going to selling Treasury Bonds to raise the funds.

The problem with just raising money out of nothing is, of course, massive inflation.

Asher
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Nov 1999
time: 03:10
29-09-2008 14:40
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quote:
Originally posted by Thue
So I have a few questions:

Where will the $700 billion (at a time...) for the current bailout come from? Since the Federal Reserve issues money, can they not just say "*poof* - we now have $700 billion"?

By that line of though, why does the United state government have debt at all? If the US has a $400 billion deficit, then why not just magically have the fed create $400 billion in $100 notes, and pay with that?


Ask Germany from the mid-20th century why this is a bad idea.

ColdPhoenix
BtS Tri-League
Prince
Londinium
Mar 2006
time: 08:10
29-09-2008 14:43
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They can magic money up like that if they want. It causes inflation though and so reduces the value of the dollar in everyone's pocket.

It's kind of like an indiscriminate tax on everyone who holds/is paid in dollars. It's better to take it in tax as more of the funds can be paid by rich people instead of the poor. Also, if they keep just printing loads of extra money then foreign investors won't want to hold dollars as the value is going down, when they all sell the price will go down more.

That said, they'll probably just print it off as voters will probably be more p!ssed of by a massive tax hike. Or they might borrow it. Yeah, they'll probably borrow it from China.

Ramo
Apolytoners Hall of Fame
Emperor
of Fear and Oil
Oct 1999
time: 02:10
29-09-2008 14:49 | www
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The Chinese central bank is still buying Treasury bonds. Actually T-bonds are pretty reasonable investments right now (if you're going to invest in the American economy). Recently, T-bonds were selling at a higher value than a dollar; pretty remarkably, investors figured that paying more than a dollar now to get a dollar in 30 days is better than putting their money anywhere else.

Traianvs
BtS Tri-League
King
Belgium, land of plenty (corruption)
Jan 2000
time: 09:10
29-09-2008 14:53
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quote:
Originally posted by ColdPhoenix
They can magic money up like that if they want. It causes inflation though and so reduces the value of the dollar in everyone's pocket.

It's kind of like an indiscriminate tax on everyone who holds/is paid in dollars. It's better to take it in tax as more of the funds can be paid by rich people instead of the poor. Also, if they keep just printing loads of extra money then foreign investors won't want to hold dollars as the value is going down, when they all sell the price will go down more.

That said, they'll probably just print it off as voters will probably be more p!ssed of by a massive tax hike. Or they might borrow it. Yeah, they'll probably borrow it from China.


They have a huge debt already. It doesn't strike me as a sign of confidence if the US keeps loaning money from all around the world. The US have been living above their standard already for so long now.

And printing money and ergo inflation would screw the whole world along with the US citizens, and nobody'll want to use the dollar anymore after a while. It's funny to see this crisis happen right when there are elections near... It would be impossible to beef up taxes right now; it's not something you want to say when you want to get elected. But maybe there's a workaround, i dunno

snoopy369
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time: 02:10
29-09-2008 14:58
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How does an 'inflation tax' not also tax the rich more than the poor? The rich, after all, have more ... money ... than the poor, don't they?

Thue
Freeciv Developer
Copenhagen, Denmark
Jan 1970
time: 09:10
29-09-2008 15:02 | www
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But to what degree does the US print more money?

ColdPhoenix
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time: 08:10
29-09-2008 15:08
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quote:
Originally posted by snoopy369
How does an 'inflation tax' not also tax the rich more than the poor? The rich, after all, have more ... money ... than the poor, don't they?


That's true but it's more like a flat rate tax rather than progressive tax. Not sure what it's like in the US but in the UK people on low salaries pay very little income tax as the first few thousand you earn is tax free and the % of tax increases as you earn more. 'Inflation tax' would mean rich people 'paying' a lot more but everyone 'paying' the same percentage.

Fair point though.

Thue
Freeciv Developer
Copenhagen, Denmark
Jan 1970
time: 09:10
29-09-2008 15:15 | www
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And why should it be better that the government print a treasury security instead of printing a $100 bill?

Since it seems to me that treasury securities and $100 bills are more or less interchangeable, I don't see why one should be substantially better than the other.

Kidicious
Deity
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Mar 2003
time: 00:10
29-09-2008 15:20 | www
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quote:
Originally posted by Thue
And why should it be better that the government print a treasury security instead of printing a $100 bill?

Since it seems to me that treasury securities and $100 bills are more or less interchangeable, I don't see why one should be substantially better than the other.


Cash is more inflationary than securities.

Kidicious
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Mar 2003
time: 00:10
29-09-2008 15:23 | www
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quote:
Originally posted by snoopy369
How does an 'inflation tax' not also tax the rich more than the poor? The rich, after all, have more ... money ... than the poor, don't they?


The rich can buy gold and other non-dollar denominated assets. Poor people can't. They have to buy what they need to survive.

Ecthy
Civilization II MultiplayerApolytoners Hall of FameSpanish Civers
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Mar 2000
time: 09:10
29-09-2008 15:27
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quote:
Originally posted by Asher


Ask Germany from the mid-20th century why this is a bad idea.


Wrong time.

Asher
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Nov 1999
time: 03:10
29-09-2008 15:32
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quote:
Originally posted by Ecthy


Wrong time.


The mid 1920s is still mid 20th century.

Ecthy
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Mar 2000
time: 09:10
29-09-2008 15:34
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it's not, especially since the times you're speaking of were separated by the middle of the 20th century by some marked events in Germany.

Asher
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quote:
Originally posted by Ecthy
it's not, especially since the times you're speaking of were separated by the middle of the 20th century by some marked events in Germany.

Is too. I'm right, you're wrong, because I was on the winning side of both wars. You can deal with that however you choose, just don't let me catch you lying again.

Lorizael

NationStates
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Detached
Sep 2001
time: 03:10
29-09-2008 15:50
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quote:
Originally posted by snoopy369
How does an 'inflation tax' not also tax the rich more than the poor? The rich, after all, have more ... money ... than the poor, don't they?


Because rich people have assets and investments that can survive or outpace inflation. Poor people don't.

Colon™
Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
Jan 1970
time: 09:10
29-09-2008 16:27
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quote:
Originally posted by Thue
And why should it be better that the government print a treasury security instead of printing a $100 bill?

Since it seems to me that treasury securities and $100 bills are more or less interchangeable, I don't see why one should be substantially better than the other.


Borrowing from the markets with a fixed money supply creates an upward pressure on interest rates as there's an increased demand for funds. Printing money has the opposite effect.

onodera
King
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Jan 2007
time: 11:10
29-09-2008 17:04
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Because as soon as you start printing money indiscriminately, inflation will shoot up, and we, Europe and China will pump your economy full of dollars trying to get rid of them, which will drive the inflation even higher. Poof, your savings are worthless, and Canadians are organizing vigilante border patrols that call themselves the Lumberjacks to keep you from crossing the border illegally.

Blaupanzer

King
Fairfax, VA
Oct 2000
time: 03:10
29-09-2008 17:57
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The "Lumberjack" patrol rumor again. Some Apolyton memes never die.

Whoha
Alpha Centauri Democracy GameACDG3 Morgan
Emperor
The TOC is supposed to be classified guys...
Dec 2001
time: 02:10
29-09-2008 18:13
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Re: Thue asks stupid basic economics questions Got spare money?


quote:
Originally posted by Thue
So I have a few questions:

Where will the $700 billion (at a time...) for the current bailout come from? Since the Federal Reserve issues money, can they not just say "*poof* - we now have $700 billion"?

By that line of though, why does the United state government have debt at all? If the US has a $400 billion deficit, then why not just magically have the fed create $400 billion in $100 notes, and pay with that?


It could come from taxes, printing, or selling bonds. As to your proposal, that is what happened under Carter, though at a smaller scale then this. In the long term however with an RTC style resolution we would be betting on a recovery which would let us sell the assets we bought and recoup our losses in part or even in full.

quote:
Originally posted by snoopy369
How does an 'inflation tax' not also tax the rich more than the poor? The rich, after all, have more ... money ... than the poor, don't they?


The rich would have far more hard assets that aren't dollar denominated then the poor.

Last edited by Whoha on 29-09-2008 at 18:20

Zkribbler
Deity
Los Angeles, CA, USA
Feb 1999
time: 00:10
29-09-2008 18:15
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quote:
Originally posted by Asher


Ask Germany from the mid-20th century why this is a bad idea.


Or Zimbabwa today. --The good news is you can convert your pocket change and become a millionaire!

Heresson
Scenario League / Civ2-CreationNationStates
Emperor
of syrian frogs
Jun 2000
time: 09:10
29-09-2008 19:50
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There was a nice caricature in 20's Poland.
A guy was thinking, after receiving his wages:
uh, I have too heavy load of money to carry it home by myself...
Yet it is all too little to buy me a taxi ride home...

Impaler[WrG]
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quote:
How does an 'inflation tax' not also tax the rich more than the poor? The rich, after all, have more ... money ... than the poor, don't they?


When new money is added to the system the one who receives the money first and spends it first buys assets when prices are still low which causes prices to rise, by the time the money has been defused through the system those people at the end of the chain must buy at high prices. The net wealth transfer is upwards to the banks and wealth individuals who always receive new money first.

Deflation has essentially the same effect but rather then spread evenly it hits selectively, when the money supply contracts it makes it mathematically impossible for all loans to be repaid, some portion of the population defaults and loss the assets they put up as collateral, again net wealth is transfered upwards even if total wealth might drop.

This is cycle of increasing and decreasing the money supply has been named the buisness cycle.

Vanguard
Prince
Monster Island
Apr 1999
time: 08:10
29-09-2008 21:30
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Although I am opposed to the bailout, in fairness to the Fed and Treasury, I should point out that printing $700 billion will not necessarily result in any more inflation than we currently have.

After all, all the Treasury is planning to do with that money to buy assets at the same price as they were selling for 18 months ago. By themselves, they aren't "bidding" up the price of anything--- they are simply trying to return prices to the same level as they were.

Whether this is preventing "asset deflation" or whether is it locking in "asset inflation" is a question that is very difficult to answer.

ColdPhoenix
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Mar 2006
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30-09-2008 07:53
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quote:
Originally posted by Vanguard
Although I am opposed to the bailout, in fairness to the Fed and Treasury, I should point out that printing $700 billion will not necessarily result in any more inflation than we currently have.

After all, all the Treasury is planning to do with that money to buy assets at the same price as they were selling for 18 months ago. By themselves, they aren't "bidding" up the price of anything--- they are simply trying to return prices to the same level as they were.

Whether this is preventing "asset deflation" or whether is it locking in "asset inflation" is a question that is very difficult to answer.


Printing the money wouldn't increase the value of the dollar economy as a whole but would increase the number of dollars in circulation and in doing so reduce the value of each dollar. This would cause inflation for food, fuel etc. The kind of things you and I buy.

How it affects the price of the banks assets? Does anyone even know what they're worth? They were certainly overvalued a year ago.

Kidicious
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Mar 2003
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30-09-2008 12:48 | www
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quote:
Originally posted by ColdPhoenix


Printing the money wouldn't increase the value of the dollar economy as a whole but would increase the number of dollars in circulation and in doing so reduce the value of each dollar. This would cause inflation for food, fuel etc. The kind of things you and I buy.



I actually doubt that it would cause inflation at this point. The only thing that would cause inflation right now is higher fuel costs. Otherwise we are looking at deflation even with extra money in the economy. Money doesn't cause inflation if it's sitting in the banks.

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