 |
| |
|
|
Guynemer
|
|
  |
|
Emperor
of the cowbell
|
Mar 1999
time: 15:20
| |
|
|
Post your predicted scenario here. Winner gets bragging rights. We'll do it like this: for simplicity's sake, just post which states (if any) you think will change in the Electoral College, and post the resulting EV total for the candidates.
To refresh your memories, here is how 2004 turned out:
BUSH: Alabama-9, Alaska-3, Arizona-10, Arkansas-6, Colorado-9, Florida-27, Georgia-15, Idaho-4, Indiana-11, Iowa-7, Kansas-6, Kentucky-8, Louisiana-9, Mississippi-6, Missouri-11, Montana-3, Nebraska-5, Nevada-5, New Mexico-5, North Carolina-15, North Dakota-3, Ohio-20, Oklahoma-7, South Carolina-8, South Dakota-3, Tennessee-11, Texas-34, Utah-5, Virginia-13, West Virginia-5, Wyoming-3. TOTAL = 286
KERRY: California-55, Connecticut-7, Delaware-3, District of Columbia-3, Hawai'i-4, Illinois-21, Maine-4, Maryland-10, Massachusettes-12, Michigan-17, Minnesota-10, New Hampshire-4, New Jersey-15, New York-31, Oregon-7, Pennsylvania-21, Rhode Island-4, Vermont-3, Washington-11, Wisconsin-10. TOTAL = 252
My prediction is that McCain will pick up Michigan, and Obama will pick up Iowa and New Mexico.
Final score: McCain 291, Obama 247.
EDIT: Picks thus far...
Guynemer: McCain 291-247
Rufus T. Firefly: Obama 289-249
snoopy369: McCain 283-255
Winston: McCain 346-192
Zkribbler: Obama 303-235
Ramo: Obama 298-240
Kontiki: McCain 303-235
Imran Siddiqui: Obama 277-261
Jon Miller: Tie 269-269
Monk: McCain 286-252
The Emperor Fabulous: Obama 287-251
gwillybj: McCain 272-266
Impaler[WrG]: Obama 385-153
Boris Godunov: Obama 338-200
Ben Kenobi: McCain 348-190
EPW: Obama 375-163
Victor Galis: Obama 401-137
Dauphin: Obama 293-245
Last edited by Guynemer on 15-10-2008 at 22:26
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
King
of infinite space, though bounded in a nutshell
|
Sep 2000
time: 04:20
| |
|
|
Obama gets all the states Kerry got except New Hampshire, but picks up Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio.
Final Score: Obama 289, McCain 249
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
|
May 1999
time: 14:20
| |
|
|
What happens if they both get 269 electoral votes again? It gets decided in congress, right?
JM
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
Dance Dance for the Revolution!
|
Jan 1970
time: 15:20
| |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Jon Miller
What happens if they both get 269 electoral votes again? It gets decided in congress, right?
JM |
A lot of money get sent to a college member who voted Obama from Wall Street. McCain wins.
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
|
May 1999
time: 14:20
| |
|
|
quote:
Obama gets all the states Kerry got except New Hampshire, but picks up Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico.
Final Score: Obama 269, McCain 269 |
I could see something like this.
JM
|
|
| |
|
|
Emperor
of the Big Apple
|
Nov 2001
time: 14:20
| |
|
|
From Wiki:
quote:
[edit] Contingent presidential election by House
Pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, the House of Representatives is required to go into session "immediately" to vote for President if no candidate for President receives a majority (270 votes) of the 538 possible electoral votes.
In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation has a single vote. To be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of state votes (26) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until a candidate receives an absolute majority of the state votes. This situation would most likely occur only when more than two candidates receive electoral votes, but could happen in an election in which only two candidates receive electoral votes and each receives an equal number of electoral votes.
The House of Representatives has chosen the President only in 1801 and in 1825.
[edit] Contingent vice presidential election by Senate
If no candidate for Vice President receives an absolute majority of electoral votes, then the Senate must go into session to elect a Vice President. The Senate is limited to choosing from only the top two candidates to have received electoral votes (one fewer than the number to which the House is limited). The Senate votes in the normal manner in this case (i.e., ballots are individually cast by each Senator, and not by State delegations). However, two-thirds of the Senators must be present for voting to take place.
Additionally, the Twelfth Amendment states that a "majority of the whole number" of Senators (currently 51 of 100) is necessary for there to be a selection of one of the two candidates. This provision essentially prohibits the sitting Vice President from casting a tie-breaking vote in the case of an evenly divided chamber.
The Senate has chosen the Vice President only in 1837.
[edit] Deadlocked chambers
If the House of Representatives has not chosen a President-elect in time for the inauguration (noon on January 20), then Section 3 of the Twentieth Amendment specifies that the Vice President-elect becomes Acting President until the House should select a President. If the winner of the vice presidential election is also not known by then, then under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the sitting Speaker of the House would become Acting President until either the House should select a President or the Senate should select a Vice President. |
Do the VP candidates count as having gotten electoral votes themselves, or are the votes for the "ticket"?
Technically, in a 269/269 split (which I also see as a slim possibility) couldn't it end up Biden/McCain, or McCain/Obama, or Palin/Biden?
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA
|
Feb 2001
time: 15:20
| |
|
|
Uh, no, that couldn't happen.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by GePap
From Wiki:
quote:
[edit] Contingent presidential election by House
Pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, the House of Representatives is required to go into session "immediately" to vote for President if no candidate for President receives a majority (270 votes) of the 538 possible electoral votes.
In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation has a single vote. To be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of state votes (26) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until a candidate receives an absolute majority of the state votes. This situation would most likely occur only when more than two candidates receive electoral votes, but could happen in an election in which only two candidates receive electoral votes and each receives an equal number of electoral votes.
The House of Representatives has chosen the President only in 1801 and in 1825.
[edit] Contingent vice presidential election by Senate
If no candidate for Vice President receives an absolute majority of electoral votes, then the Senate must go into session to elect a Vice President. The Senate is limited to choosing from only the top two candidates to have received electoral votes (one fewer than the number to which the House is limited). The Senate votes in the normal manner in this case (i.e., ballots are individually cast by each Senator, and not by State delegations). However, two-thirds of the Senators must be present for voting to take place.
Additionally, the Twelfth Amendment states that a "majority of the whole number" of Senators (currently 51 of 100) is necessary for there to be a selection of one of the two candidates. This provision essentially prohibits the sitting Vice President from casting a tie-breaking vote in the case of an evenly divided chamber.
The Senate has chosen the Vice President only in 1837.
[edit] Deadlocked chambers
If the House of Representatives has not chosen a President-elect in time for the inauguration (noon on January 20), then Section 3 of the Twentieth Amendment specifies that the Vice President-elect becomes Acting President until the House should select a President. If the winner of the vice presidential election is also not known by then, then under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the sitting Speaker of the House would become Acting President until either the House should select a President or the Senate should select a Vice President. |
Do the VP candidates count as having gotten electoral votes themselves, or are the votes for the "ticket"?
Technically, in a 269/269 split (which I also see as a slim possibility) couldn't it end up Biden/McCain, or McCain/Obama, or Palin/Biden? |
It is an Electoral Vote for the VP, I believe.
Which means it is between Palin and Biden in that scenario... I'd imagine Liebermann completes his break, makes it a tie and Cheney takes Palin.
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA
|
Feb 2001
time: 15:20
| |
|
|
Didn't you read that? The Veep doesn't get to break a tie in this case.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
In my view, it comes down to Virginia. From the 2004 map, Obama takes Iowa and New Mexico.
So it'll either be 274-264 for McCain or 277-261 for Obama.
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA
|
Feb 2001
time: 15:20
| |
|
|
For all the noise the media the Washington Post has been making about it, I don't think Obama has a very good chance of converting Virginia.
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
|
May 1999
time: 14:20
| |
|
|
I agree that if Obama takes Ohio, Virginia, or any other large state that is traditionally Republican, he takes it.
If he doesn't, than it will be very close.
JM
|
|
| |
|
|
King
Canada
|
Aug 2001
time: 15:20
| |
|
|
I'll go the Ben route say that McCain wins it with at least 300.
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
Los Angeles, CA, USA
|
Feb 1999
time: 12:20
| |
|
|
I give Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, Hawaii, Delaware and Maryland to Obama.
I give Idaho, Wyoming, S. Dakota, West Virginia and Vermont to McCain.
Obama 303  McCain 235. 
|
|
| |
|
|
King
Canada
|
Aug 2001
time: 15:20
| |
|
|
Alright, actual figures:
McCain 303, Obama 235
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Oh, its an actual competition?
Ok, then:
Obama 277-261
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
|
May 1999
time: 14:20
| |
|
|
I will go with an interesting pick and say 269-269.
JM
|
|
| |
|
|
Deity
Los Angeles, CA, USA
|
Feb 1999
time: 12:20
| |
|
|
CNN's website [Link] states that currently, out of the 270 electoral votes needed to elect, Obama has 243, McCain has 189, and 106 votes are a tossup.
|
|
| |
|
Then it's into the House of Representatives, where each state gets 1 vote. 