Project Taj Mahal? [Archive] - Apolyton Civilization Site Forums

sooooo

April 30, 2009, 11:08

This is a thread for the possible build of the Taj Mahal in Airstrip One.

Nationalism is expected to take 12 turns. Banana, in their recent email, said that PAL's nationalism is due in 6 turns. However, PAL are definitely using binary research. I expect that 6 turns to be longer, but I'm not sure if we can estimate how long that will be. Maybe our C&D department can make an estimate from their GNP graph and comparing it to ours?

The question is: can we beat them to the wonder and is it worth trying to beat them to it. Our problem is that we want to revolt to nationalism and that removes the bureaucracy production bonus to Airstrip One and is a turn of anarchy. One option, which I'm not advocating, just throwing it out there, is to delay revolting to nationalism. That (a) gets us better production for the Taj and (b) gets us better research for gunpowder and oromo warriors.

Our C&D department could be a big help here. If PAL build the wonder in a city we have sight of (eg their capital), we can figure out the hammers they are putting into the wonder, and any forest chops that go into it. If they have not started the wonder in a city we have sight of, it may be worth trading maps with banana once they get paper. Banana are estimated to get paper at around the same time that we get nationalism.

Anyway, not a lot needs to be done right now, but this thread is a starter for all discussions Taj-Mahal related.

sunrise089

April 30, 2009, 11:10

Question for number experts:

Do we gain more hammers with an empire-wide golden age or the 10 turns of drafting we could build for swapping to Nationalism right away?

mostly-harmless

April 30, 2009, 11:57

The C&D dept suffers from a major break down in computer resources. Yesterday my private desktop went down (with BtS installed and all the screenies.) Today my work laptop went down (with all my excel tables and analysis files on it). Needless to say I am extremely busy trying to somehow get those files back somehow.

If PAL started the Taj in a city we don not have line of sight, we don't need to trade maps with Banana, we simply have to ask them to do a bit of C&D math themselves to check the progress.

mh

darrelljs

April 30, 2009, 13:50

I would be in favor of trying for the wonder. With Marble, the hammer -> cash conversion is worth it even if we lose the race.

Do we gain more hammers with an empire-wide golden age or the 10 turns of drafting we could build for swapping to Nationalism right away?

You get the hammers much earlier drafting, so I would vote against waiting.

Darrell

ruff_hi

April 30, 2009, 14:05

I would prefer to swap to nationalism, draft for Bloodbath and build Taj at our capital with the aim of not getting it - it is sort of like running 0% tech while you build up cash for your next tech.

Zeviz

April 30, 2009, 16:11

By the time we get Nationalism we should know where PAL is building Taj Mahal, so we'll have an idea of how long it will take them. At this point, we don't know enough to make plans.
... Yesterday my private desktop went down (with BtS installed and all the screenies.) Today my work laptop went down (with all my excel tables and analysis files on it). Needless to say I am extremely busy trying to somehow get those files back somehow.
...
ouch Good luck with your computers.
Maybe check the data for vuruses once you restore it in case that was the cause of simultaneous failure. (Although I once had 3 hard drive failures over a couple months, all for mechanical reasons.)

sooooo

May 17, 2009, 13:20

Other option is Bluebell Woods, as mentioned by someone else somewhere else.

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/9375/26196924.jpg

That's a lot of forests! If we could get a missionary into here from A1, those forests are all 70 [EDIT: 75] hammers, (30 base hammers +25% forge, +25% org. rel, +100% for having marble). The Taj Mahal costs 700 hammers so if we were to purely chop the wonder then it needs 10 forest chops. We have ... 10 [EDIT: 9] forests :cool:. Regarding workers we could spare, the four at Green Acres will have just finished their duties. We also have the one that is at Bluebell already, plus we could spare Steve (from Frozen Clams) and Erik (from Cape Town).

Snagging Taj Mahal under PAL's noses would make me chuckle rather a lot. I think we could honestly do this. Let's get to work!

T-hawk

May 17, 2009, 13:44

those forests are all 70 hammers, (30 base hammers +25% forge, +25% org. rel, +100% for having marble).

psst... 30 x 2.5 = 75. ;)

And I count only 9 forests in the BFC.

Can we get enough worker labor here to chop out all the forests quicker than Airstrip One could do the wonder? Building and even whipping extra workers from both China Beach and Saxon are both on the table. 10 forests takes at least 40 turns of worker labor including travel time.

sooooo

May 17, 2009, 13:57

Damn-it, that's why I'm a chemist not a mathmatician :P

Whether we have the worker turns available and how many workers we need to commit all depend on what PAL's eta is.

Krill

May 17, 2009, 14:24

Chemists are the most interesting people :nod: (sorry for the spam)

PS. I only count 9 forests? Just checking that I'm not actually going blind atm

regoarrarr

May 17, 2009, 15:32

Just as a note of encouragement - over in the CFC demogame, team SANCTA (comprised of many of us RBers) built the Oracle in 1 turn through massive overflow and chopping.

Similar scenario here - we were beaten to Meditation (I think?) and knew we were going to have to really resort to extraordinary measures to land it.

But I think we can do it - we've shown that when it comes to these types of optimizing exercises we really turn it on!

And plus, even if we fail, the cash refund will be nice too.

Someone is in the game right now, but I'll try and log in a bit later to take some initial stabs.

Swiss Pauli

May 17, 2009, 16:02

If we're soon to go into Nationalism then A1 will be a lot less able to build Taj quickly, as it's only got two choppable forests remaining, and it can produce other useful stuff for our empire, so the opportunity cost is greater trying to build it there.

Bluebell seems a decent bet. Given it will be building Taj while we're chopping it, the 7-8 base hpt should get us down to 8 chops, or less if Team RB Micro can come up with one of their cunning plans :naughty:

MyOtherCar

May 17, 2009, 17:44

Well, I'm not good in calculating this, but it seems we need to get a missionary up there pronto for the OR bonus. Secondly, we need to time the forge to finish the turn we get Nationalism. In the mean time we should let the city grow as much as possible. Snce the ETA for Nationalism is about 7 turns, we could delay the forge for about 3 turns, and perhaps whip it the last turn for overflow into the Taj.
I've attached an excel-sheet with the tiles we can work. But I didn't finish since I don't know food and hammers stored.

sooooo

May 17, 2009, 18:11

With settling those two cities then nationalism will unfortunately be longer. We can get it in 8 turns if we borrow about 100 gold from banana. If we borrow about 200 gold then we can get it in 7 turns.

regoarrarr

May 17, 2009, 18:17

So what turn will you have the Taj on?

Okay. I started making a worldbuilder save but didn't get that far. But that didn't stop me from making a few calculations. I think the best we can hope for with our current force is 7 turns from now (counting the current turn as T0).

First, the assumptions
A) We can get Nationalism in 7 turns from now. Currently listed as due in 5 but I know we'll have to run at least 1 if not 2 turns of gold.
B) We can get a missionary from somewhere in the next 4-7 turns (for the exact time we need it, see open question #2)
C) We can use the 3 workers that are already within 2 tiles of Bluebell, plus 3 of the workers near Green Acres.
D) We need 8 chops for 600 hammers, and the remaining 100 hammers (~42 base) can be made up through natural production or even whip overflow from the forge.
E) We can figure out how to complete the forge and store chops without wasting them. I believe we can build "Research" which just stores up forest chops?

Next, the plan
There are 9 forests in the BFC, which I have labeled as so, starting from the south and working counter-clockwise (mostly) - all directions from Bluebell center.
1. The grass forest 2S
2. The grass forest 1SE
3. The grass forest 2ESE
4. The grass silk forest 1E
5. The grass forest 1N-NE
6. The plains forest 1N
7. The tundra forest 2W
8. The plains forest 1S-SW
9. The plains forest 1SW

And here are the locations of the workers:
A. On the grass hill 2SE
B. On the tundra 2NW
C. On the silk 1W
D/E. 4S of Airstrip One on the road network
F. S-SW of Airstrip One but not on (or particularly close to) the road network
G. Erik who is on the desert E-SE of Cape Town.

To sum up, we have 3 workers that can move to a choppable forest on T1, 2 that can move to one on T2, 1 that can move to one on T3, and one on T4. Since it seems like somewhat of a waste to move Erik 4 turns to chop one forest and then move back to the front, his part could be substituted by a new worker from either Saxon or China Beach. If it's Saxon it has to be built EOT3, if it's China then EOT2 (in both cases to spend T4 moving to a choppable forest).

T1: Possibly switch to an Islamic missionary in Saxon to whip next turn (see question #2), B move to forest 6, D and E move to Airstrip One, A moves to forest 3, and C moves to forest 4.

T2: D moves to forest 8, E moves to forest 9 (the only 2 forests D and E can reach this turn), F moves 1N onto the road network and then 2 more tiles north (to the tile SW of forest #1), A, B and C chop.

T3: F moves to forest #1, D and E chop.

T4: F chops, A, B and C's chops are done.

T5: D and E's chops are done, A moves to forest 2, B moves to forest 7 and C is released.

T6: F's chop is done and is released, A and B chop, D moves to forest 7, and C moves to forest 2

T7: D and C chop and (along with A and B) finish.

1 chop each from A-F, and a chop each from A-C and B-D, 8 in total.

Last, the open questions
1) Can we "build research" and store the forest chops?
2) Assuming the answer to #1 is yes, does a forest chop count for its adjusted value with the boni at the time of chop, or the time it's cashed in?
3) Where do we get the missionary?
4) I closed the game but it looks like worker F, by moving SE on to the road network, could reach forest #1 on T2 instead of T3

PS I made up that quote from Krill :lol:

regoarrarr

May 17, 2009, 18:20

Ah - crossposted. I was going to say that I thought I could get the forest chops aligned to get it in 6 turns with maybe using 1 more worker, but since it looks like even 7 turns to Nationalism is a bit of a stretch, probably safe to just shoot for 7 turns.

I'm sure we can wring out the beakers!

darrelljs

May 17, 2009, 20:56

PAL has the Masoleum, so denial is extra nice. And if we fail, all those Marble boosted chops will give us plenty of cash back. That would be a neat city for the National Park wonder (or whatever it is called), but that's so far in the future its not worth waiting for.

Darrell

sooooo

May 18, 2009, 02:30

I do not think we need to aim for 7 turns, since nationalism is probably not going to be in for then. If we could get it in 9-10 turns with, say, only 2 workers stolen from Green Acres and a new worker from CB in 4 turns (starting to build him next turn) then that would be better.

Missionary is 3 turns from Airstrip One. It will only take the missionary 1 turn to get from A1 to BW and spread the religion. We need to make a decision this turn on whether to interrupt A1's knight to build a missionary. Probably we do. Sorry sunrise!

regoarrarr

May 18, 2009, 07:52

What about whipping a missionary from Saxon, with overflow into Moai? That seems like better than interrupting the HA / Knight at A1, especially since Templars / IMperio are going to be fielding their own knights before too long...

I will try some other plans to see how few workers we can get away with at what turn level

sooooo

May 20, 2009, 04:01

OK, let's assume we have 4 workers (Bernard, Steve, O'Brien and Helmholtz) in order to leave 2 workers for Sunrise's plans at Jericho. They each have to chop two forests each.

http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/7207/tajj.jpg (http://img30.imageshack.us/my.php?image=tajj.jpg)

If the forest we want to leave is the plains forest I (for saxon to use), then we need one more worker turn because the tundra forest J takes an extra turn to chop. That can be gotten if we build a worker this turn at China Beach. Plan is: Turn 146 they each go into a forest. Steve to A, Helmholtz to J, Bernard to F and O'Brien to E. Turn 150 3 of the workers finish the chop. Helmholtz is still chopping the tundra tile. Turn 151 those 3 workers move into forests B, C and D. Helmholtz finishes his chop. Turn 152 Helmholtz moves into forest H and is joined by a new worker from China Beach. Turn 154 all of the forests finish chopping. Taj on turn 155.

We will want to get the other hammers probably from a whip of the forge. We may need to delay the forge by 1 turn, assuming we get nationalism on turn 149.

regoarrarr

May 20, 2009, 07:39

Do we have C&D info on where PAL might be building the Taj?

sooooo

May 20, 2009, 08:01

Not yet. They only got nationalism this turn. Next turn it may be possible. While m-h away, could Sullla take a look at the PAL cities next turn?

mostly-harmless

May 20, 2009, 08:16

I think I will be back before T146 ends.

mh

Sullla

May 20, 2009, 11:47

Not yet. They only got nationalism this turn. Next turn it may be possible. While m-h away, could Sullla take a look at the PAL cities next turn?

Absolutely, if mh can't make it back this weekend. However, spotting a wonder build doesn't really take a genius to figure out. One city will suddenly start getting a sabotage cost in the thousands! What will matter is trying to determine the ETA for Taj, which we should be able to do pretty easily. PAL is Industrious and has marble, so it may be close. Mostly it will depend on how willing they are to chop forests; one thing in our favor will be the fact that PAL probably won't realize that they are in a tight wonder race, and may approach things in laid back fashion. Let's hope so!

Our other "project" threads on wonders were 3 for 3, hopefully we can keep batting 1.000 :D

Swiss Pauli

May 22, 2009, 01:06

PAL switched back to Confu & Org Rel last turn, so it's a racing certainty that they've started Taj somewhere...*logs in to check sabotage costs*...Pi-Ram has a sab prod cost of 651, but we're only just got sight into this city. The most likely locations are PAL's two 'mystery cities': the one that we suppose has irrigated plains wheat, plains cows, 2 plains mines and 2 grass mines (and some 3 grass farms, I assume) would seem the better choice. What it lacks is forests, so we still might have a chance...can someone calculate how long it would take PAL to build Taj in this city?

sooooo

May 22, 2009, 01:45

When I was looking for a city to build the Taj in for PAL, I thought Pi-Rameses would be best.

EDIT: Hmm, or maybe you're right, that hidden city looks quite good.

sooooo

May 22, 2009, 02:25

Eek, I allowed too many turns for the first chop. It's one less turn. Edited schedule:

Turn 146 they each go into a forest. Steve to A, Helmholtz to J, Bernard to F and O'Brien to E. Turn 149 3 of the workers finish the chop. Helmholtz is still chopping the tundra tile. Turn 150 those 3 workers move into forests B, C and D. Helmholtz finishes his chop. Turn 151 Helmholtz moves into forest H and is joined by a new worker from China Beach Other 3 workers start chopping. Turn 153 all of the forests finish chopping. Taj on turn 154.

regoarrarr

May 22, 2009, 08:05

If we assume that city has enough food and pop to work the wheat, 4 mines and the cows, that is 18 base hammers per turn. PAL is industrious (50%), in org rel (25%), and has marble (50%), right?

So that makes 18 * 2.25 or 40 hammers per turn.

Taj is 700 hammers, which would indicate 18 turns. That seems kind of high though.

If we assume 3 forests and 30 base hammers overflowed, that's 11 turns. We will have it done in 8.

Does that all sound right? I just did it off the top of my head

Sullla

May 22, 2009, 08:26

Marble gives a 100% boost, not 50%. That's where your mistake lies. :)

Even with that correction, it still looks like PAL will take about 10 turns to build Taj, assuming they don't chop forests. Really, it all comes down to whether or not they decide to do some lumberjacking to aid in the wonder's construction. We have to hope that they feel they have an insurmountable lead, and don't need to hurry the wonder.

ruff_hi

May 22, 2009, 08:26

marble is +100%. What about a forge? Should we factor that in too so that we can get a range?

Ind (+50), Mono (+25), Forge (+25), Marble (+100) is a total of +200%. So, the Taj only takes 700 / 3 = 233 base hammers. At 18 hammers per turn, that is 13 turns.
Ind (+50), Mono (+25), Marble (+100) is a total of +175%. So, the Taj only takes 700 / 2.75 = 254 base hammers. At 18 hammers per turn, that is 15 turns.

Each forest chop saves them 1.67 turns.

So, assume half a turn of overflow, 2 chops gives a range of (254 - 60 - 9)/18 = 10.2 turns to (233 - 60 - 9)/18 = 9.1.
With 3 forest chops, they can bring it down to a low of 7.44 turns.

It looks like they should take at least 7 to 8 turns minimum. Can we see forests disappear off the map?

Its currently T145 and sooooo has us finishing it on T154 ... 9 turns. It will be close.

Swiss Pauli

May 22, 2009, 09:10

PAL doesn't have any forests whatsoever left to chop IIRC. You're also forgetting the centre tile's hammer, so it's 19 base hammers, based on the above numbers. Seeing as they could have a couple more from an Engineer or some plains farms, let's assume 23 base hammers = 10 turns from T145.

Assuming they're building it in their 13 pop city they could beat us by 'panic' whipping it to completion. The good thing about Taj is that you want to preserve pop to get the benefit from the wonder, so PAL may think 'RB is at war: no way they're trying for Taj in a high production city'. And they'd be right ;) but I don't think they'd consider us having so many forests to chop at this stage, as MP favours a locust approach to trees :lol:

ruff_hi

May 22, 2009, 09:44

add to that, that we are building this wonder in a city that is ... what ... less than 10 turns old :D

T-hawk

May 22, 2009, 09:56

PAL switched back to Confu & Org Rel last turn ... The most likely locations are PAL's two 'mystery cities'

Do we have enough C&D knowledge to guess how many and which cities have Confucianism?

(I'm traveling for the holiday weekend, away from the game but will be able to check in on the boards.)

Swiss Pauli

May 22, 2009, 10:04

We can reasonably the city that's building it has Confu, else they'd have adopted another religion (e.g. Taoism for Pi-Ram) in order to get the Org Rel bonus ;)

regoarrarr

May 22, 2009, 10:05

It just ticked over to T146 - when did PAL get Nationalism?

Swiss Pauli

May 22, 2009, 10:36

T145 which was also whenthey adopted Org Rel & Confu.

ruff_hi

May 22, 2009, 12:43

err - do they have anarchy or are they spiritual?

sunrise089

May 22, 2009, 12:44

Both Egyptian leaders are spiritual.

sooooo

May 22, 2009, 17:34

It is rather reassuring that PAL have no forests in either of the two cities I would expect the Taj Mahal to be built in (hidden city or Pi-Rameses). It's not a certainty yet, but I'd give ourselves an odds-on chance.

I am really hoping that banana will agree to lend us the money to get nationalism on turn 149.

We have 8 chops into the city. 8 x 75 = 600. We need to get the other 100 hammers in 5 turns. That's fine if we whip the forge with one turn to go. Ideally we would get 119/120 hammers into the forge on turn 148 and then whip the city. Next turn we'd get 80 hammers of overflow after multipliers (32 base x 150% = 80). Since we have a base production of 6 hammers, that's just 2 turns of raw production to get the final 20 hammers for the wonder.

Dreylin

May 22, 2009, 18:42

So the turn of Anarchy won't affect our completion date, right?

regoarrarr

May 22, 2009, 19:23

It shouldn't - we only need 20 base hammers and we do 6 hpt, so plenty of time. The majority of our hammers come from a forge whip and 8 chops

Dreylin

May 22, 2009, 19:47

Good, just thought I'd check. :)

sooooo

May 23, 2009, 09:10

The hammers at Bluebell Woods shoud work out quite well. We have 109/120 hammers in the forge. We get 7 hammers next turn, (T147) bringing us to 116/120. Then we change from the mine to the lake, bringing us 3 hammers and reaching 119/120 on turn 148. We whip the city this turn, changing back to the mine. Turn 149 we should (hopefully) discover nationalism and be able to start the Taj Mahal. 3 of the chops will come in on T149 too.

dsplaisted

May 23, 2009, 12:37

What is the limiting factor for our finish date for the Taj Mahal? Is it the worker turns chopping forests? If so, could we shave a turn off of the finish date by borrowing a few more workers?

mostly-harmless

May 23, 2009, 13:03

I will do the C&D later today.
We should definitely assume org religion bonus and forge. PAL are no beginners.
But they don't have any forests left in their core cities.

One thought that occurred to me is the usage of a Great Person by PAL to trigger a GA soon, reap the bonus hammers from GA to finish the Taj nicely timed for a 24turn GA (Mausoleum!).

Does anyone remember the Golden Age & Great Person situation of PAL? Will have to check the C&D thread.

mh

sooooo

May 23, 2009, 14:12

mostly-harmless

May 23, 2009, 15:40

We are not up against Pi-Ramesses, because a) it is on some other build for a few turns already (so it's bad timing) and b) it does not have Confucianism.

In fact none of the PAL cities we have visibility into has recently finished a build apart from The Warning & Alexandria. The Warning is the capital, getting +50% from Bureaucracy, but is overall a weak production city. Alexandria is only size 6 with no forests to cut. There is also Thebes, one of the cities we don't see. Size 12 and it has Confucianism (according to my religion analysis).

Those are the two possibilities.

mh

T-hawk

May 23, 2009, 22:41

What is the limiting factor for our finish date for the Taj Mahal? Is it the worker turns chopping forests? If so, could we shave a turn off of the finish date by borrowing a few more workers?

Yes, it is worker turns chopping forests. But unfortunately we cannot spare more workers. We could spare probably 2, but they wouldn't even shave a turn off.

Correct. Just to clarify for any lurkers or casual fans, we're chopping 4 forests all together on T153 to complete the wonder. So to speed that up any would need all 4 chops to be accelerated, which won't happen.

mostly-harmless

May 24, 2009, 09:38

Both The Warning and Thebes got triple whip this turn. This could mean some "max overflow" timing on behalf of PAL. This also means, they have not started the Taj yet (if they plan on using Thebes or The Warning)

mh

regoarrarr

May 24, 2009, 14:24

But no matter what kind of whip be it single, double or triple, they can only get 29 base hammers overflow

regoarrarr

May 25, 2009, 16:07

Has (can?) anyone looked to see what PAL might be doing?

Or if one of the C&D experts posts what we need to look for I (or someone else) can check

Swiss Pauli

May 25, 2009, 16:45

I had a look and so did m-h and we concluded that if they were building Taj, it was in one of their hidden cities (Thebes/Elephantine). If Thebes whip overflow goes towards Taj may shave a turn off their completion date.

In the espionage screen, you're looking for very high, rapidly increasing sabotage costs, I believe.

sooooo

May 25, 2009, 18:04

Mostly Harmless, do you know if Thebes or Elephantine is the more northern of the two hidden cities (the one with the high production)?

Thebes is earlier in the city name order, in fact it is probably the second city they settled.

mostly-harmless

June 2, 2009, 05:58

Ok, some update.

I don't know for sure which of the two hidden cities is where. Thebes was indeed the second city. My gut feeling is that Thebes is the northern city. But I feel they planted it actually 1S of our sign, so on the plains hill. This will allow it to work two cow tiles, the copper, 2mines and some more plains tiles. The city is size 11, so we can expect it to work all the hammer tiles in range. My counting yields 23base hammers (as a worst case scenario if the city was planted on the hill and steals tiles from its neighbours.)
In terms of modifiers I calculate with:
k= 1 + 0.25(forge) + 0.25(OrgRel) + 0.5(industrious) + 1(marble) = 3
Thebes is by now the only city that could have started the Taj. It was last whipped on T146. Lets assume max overflow of 29 base hammers.
147: invested = 0 (+156h [{29overflow + 23base} *3])
148: invested = 156h (+69h)
149: invested = 225h (+69h)
150: invested = 294h (+69h)
151: invested = 363h (+69h)
152: invested = 432h (+69h)
153: invested = 501h (+69h)
154: invested = 570h (+69h)
155: invested = 639h (+69h)
156: invested = 708h Taj completed!

They can't speed it up by forests, as they don't have any forests. They can speed it up by starting a GA (if they get a Great Person soon). Unlikely. I believe thay already got an GA from Great Person, right? Anyone remembers?
They can of course whip it to completion. PAL is happy to whip away large quantities of population. Lets assume Thebes manages to grow to size 12. That allows for 6 pop points to be whipped.
Whipping a wonder gets a penalty of 50% (I believe, someone double check). So they get 6 x 15base hammers max. Multiplier applied gives 270hammers!!!.
If they whip that much, they can't work all the hammer tiles anymore, so I think they can whip for some 5 pop points on T152 to complete the Taj on T153. One turn before we finish, right?

This is assuming max overflow from whip in T146, Thebes pulling in 23base hammers (a lot!) and that they whip away half their population.

A close call.
And I believe we cannot speed up our time by whipping, correct?

Here the situation for reference: (the lines indicate the area where the cities could be settled)
http://apolyton.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=162300&stc=1&d=1243935431

mh

sooooo

June 2, 2009, 06:41

And I believe we cannot speed up our time by whipping, correct

This is true. The way I see it is that there's absolutely nothing we can do to speed the wonder up, so there's not much point worrying about it. Either we get it or we don't. PAL whipping the wonder with 2 hammers to spare on T152 all relies on a lot of things and is the absolute worse-case scenario. Also, maybe it's just me, but if I was settling Thebes I wouldn't put it on the plains hill since it's 1-tile from the coast in both directions.

I do think there's a good chance that they'll whip on T153. Does that mean it's a pure coinflip as to who gets the wonder?

mostly-harmless

June 2, 2009, 07:11

I believe I read somewhere that in MP it is really a coinflip.

If they settled on the "signed" tile at the coast they get only 20base hammers max.
They can still whip on T152 I think.

But as you said, nothing we can do about it.

mh

sooooo

June 2, 2009, 09:52

Holy crap, maybe we can get it on T153 :idiot::idiot:

I don't have access to the game, so this will need to be checked, but I think we can get away with just chopping 7 forests. We have 4 already chopped. A fifth is due on T152 anyway. If next turn we send Steve and Helmholtz into Bernard and O'Brien's forests then we can chop 7 forests by T152.

OK, so the hammers. We got 29 base hammers overflow from the whip. We have put 12 base hammers of production in (6 each from T149 and T150). That's (29+12)x2.5 = 102 hammers. 7 chops of 75 hammers each = 525. Add those two together and you get 627 hammers, a deficit of 73 hammers. If we change from the silks to the plains forest, we get 20 hammers per turn after multipliers (8 x 2.5 = 20). So T151 and T152 we put 40 hammers in, leaving 33 hammer remaining on T152. That's enough for a 1-pop whip even with the 50% penalty for whipping a wonder, right? The whip would be worth only 15 base hammers, but 15 x 2.5 = 37 hammers. We'd make it by 4 hammers!

Obv I'd like it if someone checks my maths.

sunrise089

June 2, 2009, 09:59

Skilled players I know in MP say it's generally a coinflip. Other, less reliable players say there is some sort of system based on the order you joined the game.

regoarrarr

June 2, 2009, 10:12

For simultaneous MP games (which I think is what this is, right?), the turn order is shuffled at the beginning of each turn, so it does end up being random

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?p=7233336

Dreylin

June 2, 2009, 10:16

The Banana boat we originally met in Rabbits' land sailed up the East coast, right? If so, I don't think there's any way it could have got past the Northern signed spot without seeing a city there. That either means that the city is on the plains hill, or that it was settled later on the coast.

Also, the Egyptian city order starts with Thebes then Memphis so I doubt that they would have placed their first three cities with as much overlap as the Northern city has. I'm pretty certain the Southern of the two cities is Thebes, placed to grab the Copper.

Edit: m_h, how does the sim change if Thebes is the Southern city?

regoarrarr

June 2, 2009, 10:19

I prefer to think of the Taj in just base hammers. The wonder is 700 hammers, but at our 2.5 multiplier, we need just 280.

29 from the whip
6 on T149
6 on T150
210 from 7 chops

That means we need 29 left.

So 8 on T151, 8 on T152 and a 15 hammer whip would do it as you mentioned. Even 7 base hammers each turn would seem to do it, though I'm not sure I'd risk it due to rounding and such.

Naturally, I do support speeding it up by a turn if possible.

W/o current access to the game, I am assuming that it's impossible to get Bluebell up to size 4 in the next few turns?

sooooo

June 2, 2009, 12:29

OK, great. We have a new eta of T153 for the Taj.

And yes, we can't get BB up to size 4. It only grew 2 turns ago.

BTW we should probably rename Bluebell Woods to Bluebell Fields after all this chopping is finished ;)

ruff_hi

June 2, 2009, 12:56

BTW we should probably rename Bluebell Woods to Bluebell Fields after all this chopping is finished ;):lol:

mostly-harmless

June 2, 2009, 15:00

The Banana boat we originally met in Rabbits' land sailed up the East coast, right? If so, I don't think there's any way it could have got past the Northern signed spot without seeing a city there. That either means that the city is on the plains hill, or that it was settled later on the coast.
Excellent point.

Also, the Egyptian city order starts with Thebes then Memphis so I doubt that they would have placed their first three cities with as much overlap as the Northern city has. I'm pretty certain the Southern of the two cities is Thebes, placed to grab the Copper.

Edit: m_h, how does the sim change if Thebes is the Southern city?

The southern city only gets 13base hammers, which would set the ETA for TAJ in the 160s. That's why I find it unlikely they would chose the southern city over the northern city for the Taj.

mh

sooooo

June 2, 2009, 15:29

Arggghhh, just logged in and disovered a spanner in the works - Helmholtz cannot reach Bernard's forest next turn. The road network does not work out because the road he is standing next to is a hill road. The situation is this: Bernard's forest still needs 3 chops, as does O'Brien's. Dave's forest only needs 2 chops since he did a chop this turn. But Helmholtz can only reach Dave's forest and Steve can only reach O'Brien's forest.

My proposed solution, to get Taj on T153, is to emergency triple-whip a worker from China Beach this turn. The new worker can only make it into Dave's forest. On Turn 151 The new worker goes into Dave's forest, as does Helmholtz. Dave then moves into Bernard's forest and Steve moves into O'Brien's forest. O'Brien and Bernard both chop. On Turn 152 we have 2 workers each in 3 forests that need 2 chops to complete, so it is done.

On the downside we waste hammers from having to emergency whip China Beach. But on the upside we get to draft sooner, are less likely to lose the Taj to PAL and also we have 1 more worker.

mostly-harmless

June 2, 2009, 15:54

Go for it, I say. Stealing Taj from PAL will be priceless. Something to carry in every RBer's sig. ;)

mh

sunrise089

June 2, 2009, 15:54

I'm always for 3-pop whips with penalty :)

sooooo

June 2, 2009, 15:57

OK, I've just discovered an even bigger flaw in the plan: We can reorganise our chops to complete on T152. But we cannot also whip on T152 because the hammers don't arrive in the build until the start of T153. Thus we will still be 35 hammers short.

So, in summary: Ignore everything I just said and just have everyone chop the forests they are currently in. We chop 8 forests in total and they all complete on T153. No whipping.

Taj will have to wait until T154 I'm afraid. No way around it that I can see.

Swiss Pauli

June 2, 2009, 15:57

Yeah, seems a price worth paying to me.

EDIT: talk about being ninja'd :cringe:

Dreylin

June 2, 2009, 16:04

The southern city only gets 13base hammers, which would set the ETA for TAJ in the 160s. That's why I find it unlikely they would chose the southern city over the northern city for the Taj.
I agree, but in your previous message you make two statements which refer to "Thebes" and I wanted to make certain that it was applying a label so as not to have to say "the Northern city" every time, rather than "we know the city called Thebes is size11".

The city is size 11, so we can expect it to work all the hammer tiles in range.
Thebes is by now the only city that could have started the Taj. It was last whipped on T146.

ruff_hi

June 2, 2009, 16:04

So, in summary: Ignore everything I just saidThis sounds like me in relation to the 201 plans I put forward for The Great Library :D.

mostly-harmless

June 2, 2009, 16:09

I agree, but in your previous message you make two statements which refer to "Thebes" and I wanted to make certain that it was applying a label so as not to have to say "the Northern city" every time, rather than "we know the city called Thebes is size11".

From my numbers, the city that PAL has working on the Taj is Thebes (PAL's second city after The Warning). Thebes is size 11. Where Thebes is (northern spot or southern spot) is not confirmed. I lean towards northern spot (on the hill), which makes sense over the southern spot, as it has way more base hammers.

mh

regoarrarr

June 2, 2009, 16:18

So what do you have for its configuration, for either northern or southern site?

Has it grown in size recently at all?

Dreylin

June 2, 2009, 16:26

From my numbers, the city that PAL has working on the Taj is Thebes (PAL's second city after The Warning). Thebes is size 11. Where Thebes is (northern spot or southern spot) is not confirmed. I lean towards northern spot (on the hill), which makes sense over the southern spot, as it has way more base hammers.

Righto, that was what I wanted to check.

From a "where to build Taj" perspective, I can't disagree with your conclusion that the Northern spot is best. I strongly disagree that Thebes is the Northern city though.

Assuming no jiggery-pokery to confuse us: The Warning, Thebes, and Memphis are PAL's first three cities. Looking at the location image you sent, I cannot believe that a team which has played as effective a land-grab as PAL has in the rest of the game would have settled their first three cities with as much overlap (and as few resources) as they would have done if Thebes was in the Northern spot.

I find it a far more likely scenario that Thebes was settled at the Southern spot to secure Copper (we suspect they had early BW, right?) and borders with Banana, then later (after the Banana boat had passed) the Northern city was founded on the coast as a filler with Great Lighthouse trade routes.

T-hawk

June 2, 2009, 16:26

We can reorganise our chops to complete on T152. But we cannot also whip on T152 because the hammers don't arrive in the build until the start of T153. Thus we will still be 35 hammers short.

Just so you know you're not going insane, that was a change in one of the game versions, I think the initial release of Warlords. The old behavior was to credit chop hammers immediately. So chopping towards a whip threshold in the same turn used to be possible. It was changed to reduce MM concerns ("oops! I meant to change that build order for the chop!")

sooooo

June 2, 2009, 16:46

Righto, that was what I wanted to check.

From a "where to build Taj" perspective, I can't disagree with your conclusion that the Northern spot is best. I strongly disagree that Thebes is the Northern city though.

Assuming no jiggery-pokery to confuse us: The Warning, Thebes, and Memphis are PAL's first three cities. Looking at the location image you sent, I cannot believe that a team which has played as effective a land-grab as PAL has in the rest of the game would have settled their first three cities with as much overlap (and as few resources) as they would have done if Thebes was in the Northern spot.

I find it a far more likely scenario that Thebes was settled at the Southern spot to secure Copper (we suspect they had early BW, right?) and borders with Banana, then later (after the Banana boat had passed) the Northern city was founded on the coast as a filler with Great Lighthouse trade routes.

Mostly harmless actually thinks Thebes is 1S of the sign on the map, on the plains hill. That city does get the copper.

regoarrarr

June 2, 2009, 16:47

Going back through the C&D archives, here is what I have found

T33 - PALs 2nd city founded (Thebes)

T50: The Warning popped 3rd ring gaining only 5 land tiles! This could of course mean that there is already some overlap with their 2nd and/or 3rd city.

T53: Get awarded 13 points for owning the 9 tiles in Thebes' 1st ring (landlocked city). I assumed that 9 tiles equal 12 points, but maybe the factor changes with time? (we certainly only got 12 points for 9 tiles, same goes for Imperio)

T61: Memphis and Thebes grow to size 3.
T69: Thebes grows to size 4.

T71: PAL's land tiles are listed at 39 (though I'm not sure if that is actual land tiles or tiles owned for 20 turns). Elephantine (5th city founded on T70)

Dreylin

June 2, 2009, 16:53

Mostly harmless actually thinks Thebes is 1S of the sign on the map, on the plains hill. That city does get the copper.

True, but is also has a fair amount of overlap with The Warning, and a lot of overlap with Memphis. Why settle Thebes on that hill if you're going to go and settle the Memphis spot next?

mostly-harmless

June 3, 2009, 02:06

Ok, I have looked at the border expansions from PAL again.
I can now confirm that the Thebes is indeed on that hill.

Here it is:
T0: The Warning founded. Grabbing 6tile (red)
T5: The Warning 2nd ring. 7 tiles (green)
T33: Thebes founded. Grabbing 9 tiles with 1ring (blue). This already rules out the former northern spot on the coast (1N of the "Thebes?" sign) as this would have given them only 8 new tiles, with the tile marked "1" already taken by The Warning's 2nd ring.
So it's either the northern city on the hill or the southern spot.
T47: Memphis founded. Grabbing 5 tiles (yellow). Irrelevant for this argument.
T50: The Warning 3rd ring. Grabbing 5 new tiles.(cyan). Now, IF Thebes was not on that hill, but on the southern city site, The Warnings 3rd ring would gain 6 new tiles. The tile marked "2" however is already taken by Thebes. Therefore only 5 new tiles.

Makes sense?

http://apolyton.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=162302&stc=1&d=1244008737
@ Dreylin:
It is a very nice city spot. Three food tiles, grabbing copper and only 3tiles overlap with the capital. On top of a hill for defense and an ideal chokepoint. You could argue that Memphis as their third city was not optimal placed given all the land they have. But then again, they might not have scouted that much and they were weak on the military side, so best not spread to wide.

mh

Swiss Pauli

June 3, 2009, 02:15

Good work, mh!

I wonder if Memphis was intended to go further south (fish, banana, grass hill) but was blocked by Banana's city, and therefore went to the 'runner-up' spot.

So it looks like we're depending on PAL not thinking they're in a tight race, and whipping later, or not at all :please:

mostly-harmless

June 3, 2009, 02:22

No, Banana's cities were still 10 tiles away or so, when they settled Memphis. The thing is there is no other spot to settle if you want to grab that corner. It is really just the spot Memphis is on or the hill to its north. All other places nearby are not allowed.

mh

MyOtherCar

June 3, 2009, 12:42

Very thorough analysis MH. Good work!

regoarrarr

June 3, 2009, 12:47

Does PAL have line of sight into Bluebell Woods err Fields, where they could see the espionage costs to sabotage production?

sooooo

June 3, 2009, 12:48

Well their borders are pretty far away from Bluebell Woods.

J/K. Probably Imperio don't even know about Bluebell Woods yet unless they used a spy.

regoarrarr

June 3, 2009, 12:51

I guess my question was more generic, about espionage. So, it's correct that they can only see espionage costs for citeis that they've seen, i.e. not Bluebell

Dreylin

June 3, 2009, 13:23

@m_h: I bow to your skills :nod:

T-hawk

June 3, 2009, 13:31

Right. PAL can't see Bluebell in the same way that we can't see Thebes. The only way would be if Imperio or Templars found it with a spy (within the last 20 turns since the city was founded) and then traded maps to PAL. I doubt that's happened, though it's not impossible.

Getting enough EP for Investigate City does reveal hidden cities, but PAL's nowhere near that.

Besides, even if PAL does see it, they'd see ~350 hammers going up by ~10/turn. The last 300 hammers of the wonder will all be chopped simultaneously.

And just looking at the map, the "Thebes?" sign must be correct. No way would any competent player settle 1N of that square and miss both cows and copper.

sooooo

June 6, 2009, 07:22

OK, so T152 PAL did 2 1-pop whips and ended the turn. Those whips are not the Taj. If they don't do a 5-pop whip later in the turn then at worst we have a coin-flip chance of the Taj on T154.

mostly-harmless

June 8, 2009, 04:33

Quick question:
Are we still on track to get the Taj on T154?
Only I don't see any chopping in progress to finish next turn or are those forests pre-chopped?

mh

sooooo

June 8, 2009, 04:45

Yes, the remaining chops only have 1 turn left. They'll finish chopping next turn (T153) and we're due to finish the wonder and hopefully start a golden age on T154.

mostly-harmless

June 8, 2009, 05:11

Thanks, soooo.
PAl has to whip at least 4 pop points (3 in an absolute worst case scenario for us) in Thebes next turn to get a coin flip chance at the Taj.
If they don't do that, RB once again beats a industrious civ to an important wonder, while fighting two civs.

That would make me feel good. :)

mh

regoarrarr

June 8, 2009, 08:39

The thoughts of PAL, expecting Taj in a turn or two, logging in to see

"The Taj Mahal has been completed in a faraway land"
"RealmsBeyond has started a Golden Age!"

brightens my day

sooooo

June 8, 2009, 08:50

Well let's not do any gloating before the eggs are hatched. I wouldn't be surprised if they whip it next turn, leading to a coinflip.

regoarrarr

June 8, 2009, 09:09

Oh yes - completely agree that it's too early. But nevertheless, even the possibility gives me a smile

sooooo

June 9, 2009, 13:53

A double-whip from PAL but that's probably not the Taj. Mostly-harmless - how do you determine the population of a city?

ruff_hi

June 9, 2009, 14:59

A double-whip from PAL but that's probably not the Taj. Mostly-harmless - how do you determine the population of a city?I would love to know the answer to that too. As I understand it, population of city flows into the overall population stats (F9) and the score (based on city size). Then you have to juggle the various sizes of each city until both of those numbers line up. Painful and if mh has an easier way - that would be great.

T-hawk

June 9, 2009, 15:03

I am eagerly anticipating tomorrow at 2:12 PM. If only the turn timer could be more accurate so I could make sure not to schedule any meetings at work during the turn changeover. :)

mostly-harmless

June 9, 2009, 17:01

PAl has been known to whip their cities after they finished their turn. So, no surprise there. Double whip is correct. Since we have line of sight into all but two cities, it is now quite easy to check the size by grabbing multiple screenshots per turn. An super early screenshot (globe view) is always helpful.
Because I have taken on C&D for this game, I have to log in multiple times per turn to grab new screenies and verify certain assumptions. My screenshot numbers for this Demogame are four digits!
I already neglected keeping track of culture and land points since ca. 50 turns, because it becomes too much.

Anyway, back to PAL. Byblos was double whipped down to size 3. Definitely not the Taj!

Things are looking really good for us!!!

mh

MyOtherCar

June 9, 2009, 17:04

I must say that the thing I most impressed with in this team, is the cloak&dagger thread. I never knew so much information can be deduced from the info screens. I really appreciate and admire the effort put into this.

Sullla

June 9, 2009, 19:21

mostly_harmless is nothing short of incredible. :D Just doing Soldier count (and that only every couple of turns) is already pushing my limits of stat-mastery.

We're extremely lucky to have so many talented people contributing on this team.

darrelljs

June 9, 2009, 19:41

Yeah, we have advantages all over the place but C&D has to be the biggest one. I'm constantly amazed what MH et. al. are able to figure out. I've seen some of the same tricks being applied in other settings now ;).

Edit: here's one of my favorite quotes from this game:

Analyzing single units of GNP from the demographics screen, thousands of years before civs contact each other, is a little bit deeper than even I usually go. :)

Darrell

mostly-harmless

June 10, 2009, 03:06

I will abuse this thread (as it will close next turn anyway!) to shed some light on the C&D method.

I keep track of ingame score increases. Then I take a screenshot from the globe view, to check all visible cities and a screenshot from the demo-table, obviously looking at best, average, worst rival population.
After that it's just a little fiddling with the tables and the underlying maths to make my tables fit the numbers.
Here an example of this turns population table:
http://apolyton.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=162383&stc=1&d=1244616736
City size and population in the left columns. Number of cities per size for each civ in the next columns.
The brownish numbers are the numbers you should find in the best / worst rival population category (well, only two of them obviously). The yellow number is the average number that should match the demo-table number. If it doesn't something is wrong.
Underneath the brown line, the civ size in terms of tiles they can work (excluding city centres). This number is actually more useful in judging a civ's strength. Look for example at Banana's size 18 city (with 3.2million citizens its more than all 7 Imperio cities combined, although they account for 55 worked tiles).

In parallel I keep track of each individual city in the game from the turn it was settled, regardless of it's visibility.
Here an example of just PAL right from the start.
Size increase are coded green, whips are brown, growth-whips on the same turn are striped. Initially I was keeping track of culture to determine border pops (red letters) as well. But that got too messy after a while.
http://apolyton.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=162384&stc=1&d=1244616765

I think there is even more one can do if digging deeper through the screens and the underlying code. Sabotage costs for buildings could probably tell you something about what buildings are in the city (apart from the visual check).

I am not sure if during the Civ5 development they will make it harder to deduct these things, as it is a lot of work and takes away time.
I personally will probably not do something like that (at least to that extent) again. Anyway, I am not doing it for the ongoing RB PBEM #1 (now a few people might sleep better?). I was joining Team Sancta at CivFanatics at the very beginning to do the same sort of stuff, but could never find the time, especially as it was going on a very fast pace for the first turns.

Thanks for the praise, but lots of people helped with corrections, providing ideas and code-digging.

If we now face each other in different teams for the next MP games, I hope they won't become battles of math and formulas. ;)

mh