The T120 Imperio NAP Expiry Crisis

[Swiss Pauli]

Kinda like the Cuba Missile Crisis, only with Jumbos instead of nukes ;) I started a new thread as there seems to be a lack of discussion about what to do about the ominous development of our powerful neighbour.

Depending on how people feel, it might be worth updating this post with agreed actions, as well as mentioning discussion points. I've taken some ideas from the turnplayer thread, but this list is by no means exhaustive, so please weigh in with your thoughts :)

Action Points

- Ask PAL to cancel Ivory deal. Status: PAL rejected, but proposes to gift us Ivory 'soon'.
- Research path (post-Monarchy): Maths => HBR.

Discussion Points

- Propose alliance with Imperio against Templars - no.
- Get Templars to agree a new NAP - proposal sent.
- Galley use (explore or unit-ferry)
- Try to trade in a military resource from overseas

[Swiss Pauli]

My thoughts:

- Research: if we're looking at a choice between Feudalism and HBR, Maths and Construction then I favour the latter as we'll get more benefit out of the three small techs than the one large one.

- Propose alliance with Imperio against Templars: I think there's too much risk of this backfiring. Such a proposal could be forwarded on to Templars, and would surely seal an alliance against us. If Imperio wants to take out Templars then they don't need our help.

- Get Templars to agree a new NAP. I know the mood in the camp is quite anti-Templar, but I don't think we can survive a two-front war, so some minor concessions (e.g. a new map) to try to keep Templars out of any war with Imperio would surely be worthwhile.

- Galley use: in the medium term, I'd like to have a couple of Catapults on a galley in the Fjord to avoid HA flanking, but this would mean training another Galley, or sending the explorer back to home waters.

- Military resource trade: would be great, but may be tricky to achieve. We should also be sure that an Imperio DoW doesn't sever the trade route.

[mostly-harmless]

Ha, I was about to start a thread exactly like this. I will post a C&D "special" here shortly.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

If we want to do the CS trade with PAL, then we have to research Maths next.

[sunrise089]

- Research: Maths next for the Bureau trade (probably worth it even militarily for production bonus if we go the Golden Age route with the first Scientist)

- Propose alliance with Imperio against Templars: Agree this is very risky. Defiantly possible as a last resort though, like if Templars refuse to agree to a NAP and both they and Imperio start to pump units.

- Get Templars to agree a new NAP: Seems like high potential upside

- Galley use: Only necessary once we actually have units to ferry. And remember, cats on the ship can't actually attack an enemy stack, so this only makes sense if we have cats in the city AND on a ship, AND we expect Imperio to bombard us for a turn.

- Military resource trade: I have no idea how overseas trade routes work. Does anyone?

[mostly-harmless]

Ok, some thought from C&D.
The earliest they can come for us is T120.
On T109 Cape Town will finish Heroic Epic.
From then on it can put 32hammers into military units.
Thats 362hammers worth of military. For comparison thats 10 spears or 10 axes or 12 chariots or 14 archers or 7 horse archers or 7 cats, so plenty to make Cape Town very hard to take. On top of that Cape Town will pop their cultural defense to 40% on T113.

Unfortunately we cannot turtle up in Cape Town as we have to protect our horses and copper in the open. So Horse Archers are definitely a must. Thats why I think HBR should be next on the list and not Mathematics. We need some time to get a HA stack together.

I have to admit that the recent lighthouse in Chichen Itza does not look like imminent danger, but I'd rather have us prepared. After all Imperio is not coming back to us regarding the NAP for 4 turns now!

I also must say I have the same thought like Dreylin. IMperio must know that they can't take us on all by themselves. even if they rae just after Cape Town. So a coalition of IMperio and Templars is possible, especially in the light of the latest tech trade and the absence of any progress on the diplo front.

The border pops of Cape Town and Airstrip One will give us some additional forewarning for approaching troops but we should strengthen Pink Dot's garrison.
A line of sight into Templars other 2 cities is needed to get a better feeling for their production capacity and builds.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

Might as well put this here as well:
T104:
Major news. Templars researched Metal Casting and traded it together with Monotheism to Imperio for Mathematics & Monarchy!!!

[Swiss Pauli]

- Galley use: Only necessary once we actually have units to ferry. And remember, cats on the ship can't actually attack an enemy stack, so this only makes sense if we have cats in the city AND on a ship, AND we expect Imperio to bombard us for a turn.
The thought was to move them in, unload then attack on the same turn, assuming we hold off an initial attack from 2 move units thus avoiding flanking damage.

I think we now have to try to make nice with Templars, conditional on a NAP in order to try to see whether they're in cahoots with Imperio, or whether Imperio are simply imposing a trade embargo on their main rival (us).

[ruff_hi]

The best counter for elephants are other elephants. The only way we can get elephants is if we self-research horse riding and maths and then trade for construction from PAL (they will have to self research it) and trade for elephants.

If Imperio don't have elephants, I think we can hold our own with a nice stack of horse archers so getting that deal canceled is critical to us.

The other option <evil grin> is that we ask PAL to assist us with a back door attack against templar. We tech towards war elephants as fast as we can and then we both (us and PAL) move against templar (who will be without war elephants). If we agree to this, then we need to stop researching monarch (get happy from somewhere else - phant trade from PAL or religion) and start teching down our war path.

[mostly-harmless]

The more I think about it the more I believe we can outproduce both of them, especially with Heroic Epic. As far as C&D knows we are the only ones on the continent with Heroic Epic. Also we will pull even with the happy cap soon, further increasing our production capacity.

I think the way out is a proper show of deterrence. Once the Heroic Epic is up, we will churn out units non stop from Cape Town and stack them visibly near Templars and Imperios borders. This together with the happy cap increase and subsequent pop increase will see our soldier points skyrocketing.

[sunrise089]

@Swiss - I didn't know you could attack out of a city that way using units on a boat. Good to know.

@Ruff - The best counter to elephants are spears. They're cheaper and get defensive bonuses. Considering the possibility of a mixed stack, I think (down the road) we want to build spears, cats, and horse archers.

[ruff_hi]

@sun / swiss - units can be offloaded from a boat in a city and be ready to move that turn providing they spend a turn on the boat. Units stuck in a boat (ie moved onto the boat that turn and then the boat moved into the city) cannot attack that turn, but they can defend.

Spears are ok against War elephants providing they don't get the shock promotion.

[mostly-harmless]

I am actually missing T-Hawk stepping in saying:
Lets not run around like headless chicken just because Imperio built a road towards us.
It feels a bit weird, that I am trying to step on the breaks here,being known for my more hawkish view of things, but recent Imperio behavior does not really point towards an imminent all out attack on us.

So lets not stare transfixed on that turn 120. Imperio cannot pull 10 phants & 10 cats out of nowhere in that time.

mh

[sunrise089]

Ok, I'll keep being the unabashed hawk then. Imperio hardly needs 20 units to critically hurt us. All they need is (5?) units to take our Cape city and closed borders (unless we know this won't cut off PAL trade) to hurt us very badly. Couple an Imperio sneak attack with an all-out Templar rush on Pink with all of their units, and things would be even worse.

[mostly-harmless]

5 units?
Surely not. With Heroic Epic done in 6 turns we can get 10 units out of there.

An all out attack from Templar would not amount to much at the moment. Sullla is closely monitoring their units and they only have 3 and a half cities.

Come on guys, we are not a push over on our continent.

mh

[sunrise089]

All I'm saying M_H (and I'm consciously playing Devil's advocate right now) is that they could hit the Cape in 7 or 8 turns, before the first reinforcements arrive. I know in that time they wouldn't be able to field an army to defeat us, but if they slaved even a pair of elephants and then just brought the rest of the units they own they could probably take the city. Likewise Templars have plenty of units to at least threaten Pink if they moved in in 7 or 8 turns.

Of course the longer we wait, the less vulnerable (and eventually the more dominant) we become. But if I'm Imperio, and I plan to declare war anyways, and I see we have one city with resources cut off, AND I have a massive military tech advantage...I'd hit as quickly as possible.

[Zeviz]

Don't forget that Imperio is the team that went with BW first tech path. Sure, it's possible that they just wanted early access to chopping and whipping, but I suspect they hoped for an aggressive opening.

[mostly-harmless]

Ok, a lot will depend on whether they honour the T120 deadline for the NAP expiry. I will assume they do that.
Then consider their latest moves. They built a lighthouse in Chichen Itza, a rather non-military building.
Also a consider that they are not in Slavery any more!
The moment the change back to Slavery, we should raise our readiness level.
One thing I would suggest, is to not wait for Bette Hur to arrive as a scout in Imperio lands in 6 turns, but to send an archer there this turn.

mh

[Sullla]

An all out attack from Templar would not amount to much at the moment. Sullla is closely monitoring their units and they only have 3 and a half cities.


Just for the record, here's what we are currently projecting:

Guesstimated Total Military (Templars)
6 quechuas (2 known)
4 axes (1 known)
2 spearmen (both known)
2 chariots (0 known)
2 archers (0 known)

Guesstimated Total Military (Imperio)
3 warriors (2 known)
3 holkans (all known)
2 chariot (all known)
2 archer (both unknown)
1 longbow (unknown)

At the moment, Templars are stronger than Imperio. But Imperio can scale up their military about three times faster than Templars can...

[Swiss Pauli]

The crisis with Imperio is not solely a military one: with them giving us the cold shoulder on tech deals, we have only have one trading partner (PAL), whereas all the relevant teams have a least two (assuming Banana and PAL will trade techs as well as resources). Getting, at best, half the short-term trade value out of each tech we learn compared to our rivals will see our competiveness slide. This is another reason to get Templars onside (as long as they remain a viable trading partner).

[mostly-harmless]

As mentioned in the C&D thread the Imperio crisis takes another twist, as Imperio is now running the Espionage slider against us. At their current spending (11ept) they will be able to see our research in 4 turns. We are currently spending only 1ept towards Imperio in return, attempting to raise the costs for "Can see research". Once we have a first glimpse on Rabbits demographics (next turn), I suggest to divert all 4 of our espionage points back to Imperio to raise the cost even further and maybe push them back to 5 turns before they can see our research.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Hmm, their whole preparations come over so clumsy. Getting that road done so early, starting the espionage slider so early (and then running only 10%), not replying to our diplo messages in ages (do they want to keep that up for the next 15 turns = 30days?)

If it were not for our reliance on the open borders, we could just dial them up now and ask them what the hell they are thinking. We must ensure we keep open borders with them until the day they declare.

mh

[Kylearan]

Hi,
Hmm, their whole preparations come over so clumsy. Getting that road done so early, starting the espionage slider so early (and then running only 10%)
Basically I agree with what you said, but if they plan to use spies to remove our cultural defenses, they have to start early enough to accumulate points to be able to do that. Running the slider at 10% for a longer period of time looks less suspicious than setting it at 100% for a shorter period, although with all the other signs we'd have to be real stupid not to expect an attack...

If they really plan to use spies to incite revolts (and I guess so, as simply seeing what we're researching is not really worth it), would it be worthwhile to put a spy of ourselves into the most endangered city? I'm not familiar enough with spy detection mechanics to assess whether the hammers are worth it, or better spent for a "real" military unit.

-Kylearan

[mostly-harmless]

Welcome back, Kylearan. Hope you were still reading along in the last weeks?

Yes, I was thinking along the same lines.
What could they do with their espionage points.
The answer is, not much if they are running the slider at 10%.

Now, I can only go by the costs I see for our own spies, but I am assuming Imperios costs are not that far off.

"Can see research" - Passive mission. Currently at 186e-pts. Not much we can do against that other than hoping to raise that number by spending our own 4e-pts towards Imperio in the next turns. Harm done? Well, they can see what we research next and the ETA. Maybe not such a bad thing after all, if they can see we are full track on military techs. Might change their mind.

Support city revolt" - Active mission (needs a spy unit)
Current cost estimate ~700e-pts. That's a lot! They have 149e-pts up to now and are running 11e-pts against us currently. Assume that the costs go down to ~600e-pts. They would still need to accumulate 450e-pts against us in 15turns.

There is of course also the option to use a spy against our sole source of metal and horses. I have no idea about the cost for such a mission.

Do we have any specialist on espionage in the team that know how to increase our chances to catch a spy?

mh

[T-hawk]

Do we have any specialist on espionage in the team that know how to increase our chances to catch a spy?

The one big thing that can be done is to station a spy of your own on the tile in question. This raises the chances to catch considerably, IIRC from something like 1% per turn to around 10% in most cases. The other big factor is to build a Security Bureau. :)

But that's only good against one tile (there is no "zone defense" against spies), and really only good to protect a city. Sabotage missions are cheap enough that the enemy spy won't need or bother to wait for cost reduction, so there's one long shot at catching, at best.

[Swiss Pauli]

Given the clumsiness of Imperio's preparations thus far, I wouldn't rule out them planning on sending in a spy early to get the discount. Seeing as we need to do all we can to hold Cape Town then it may just we worth investing in a spy of our own.

[Swiss Pauli]

The "Can Research" Screen for PAL shows this list:
Literature
Drama
Feudalism
Theology
Civil Service
Calendar
Currency
Philosophy
Horseback Riding
Compass
Machinery

"Can't Trade" shows:
Monarchy
Mathematics
Metal Casting

PAL got Construction!

Meh. Anyone else think that's a downpayment from Imperio for CS?

[sunrise089]

Perhaps Imperio is running the slider to make it too expensive for us to see their current research.

[mostly-harmless]

Don't think so. We have not spend e-pts towards Imperio for ages. And they know that. There was never any risk that we could see their research. And running the slider seems like a over-reaction. Their normal 4e-pts would have been more than sufficient for that.

mh

[Dreylin]

Can we calculate how many e-points Imperio would require to cause a revolt in Cape Town ... maybe they want to skip having to use Cats?

[T-hawk]

Can we calculate how many e-points Imperio would require to cause a revolt in Cape Town ... maybe they want to skip having to use Cats?

City Revolt costs 500 EP base. The list of multiplier factors is pretty long, and there's no direct way in-game to see or work out the cost multiplier against your own cities. Here's a stab:

Distance +15%
Espionage spending -20% (if they have double ours)
Trade route -20% (only if they do it before declaring war which cancels the open borders)
Religion -25% (if Islam spreads there since Imperio owns the holy city)
Stationary spy -50%

Most likely war case is between 400-500 EP cost with a turn or two of stationary spy. Minimum possible is about 150 if they do it with open borders still active, with Islam there, and with a fully entrenched spy.

[mostly-harmless]

Hmm, looking at our costs, we require between 700 and 800 e-pts for a city revolt right now.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Double post.
mh

[Swiss Pauli]

For ease of reference, I thought I'd put this pic here as well:

http://apolyton.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=159924&stc=1&d=1233611924

[Swiss Pauli]

This is looking more and more like an economic/tech crisis to me. Unless Imperio starts churning out serious offensive units whilst we're researching Maths and HBR then it could be that they're simply scared of us, and don't want to give us any help by trading with us. With their own research power and having 3 tech partners to trade with us, they don't really need us.

This might also hold true of Templars: I think they're absolutely terrified of us, and now that they've got their own game going (via some sweet trade deals) they're giving us the cold shoulder.

[mostly-harmless]

I more and more tend to see it the same way. Preparations for an all out attack surely would look different.
What worries me is the lack of diplo exchange.

mh

[sunrise089]

I think the above may very well be right, but it does assume Imperio launches their attack competently. I can certainly still see them slaving out a mace army with minimal warning. I mean, what would there peaceful plan be? Have half of our land and inferior production, and expect us to sit idly by with our Nationalism-synergistic UU?

[Swiss Pauli]

Imperio haven't really struck me as great warmongers (they're not even running Slavery) so maybe they plan to attack but are having trouble sorting it out. My gut feeling says their new member is likely to be more aggressive (an MP guy?).

By not trading with us they're already hurting us plenty, and our fancy Muskets won't do us any good if we're facing Rifles! (I exaggerate, but I'm sure you get the point.)

[mostly-harmless]

As for slavery, they might just have waited for Civil Service!

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Just to update the relevant thread:
Imperio pillaged our only source of copper on T112. Their spy apparently survived and is threatening our horses.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Here is what I suggest we do to as far as conflict with Imperio is concerned.
Obviously securing our strategic resources is top of the list.
Therefore:

Worker actions:
O'Brien (currently roading Cape road):
T112: Cancel action
T113: Move SE - E
T114: Move to 1S of Cape Town
T115: Re-assess situation and either start pasture on horses or mine on copper

Helmholtz (currently awaiting orders at 2nd wine):
T112-T115: Move towards Cape Town
T116: Re-assess situation and either help pasture or mine

Depending on situation with horses, we are looking at the earliest resuming of production of spear/axes or horse archers at Cape Town on T120. Too late for my taste.

Therefore to bridge that period:

Diplomatic actions:
PAL:
Call in favor and get copper supply from them on T113! That should allow Cape Town to continue producing meaningful units. Workers can concentrate on horses first.

Imperio:
Offer Aesthetics vs. Currency in game.
Promising them Literacy, but
a) either holding it back for a to be specified period arguing "unsafe passage of messengers due to unknown spies active"
b) exchanging it for a hefty sum of gold (reparations for destroyed mine & pasture)
c) not gifting it at all.
Keep in mind, should conflict start with Imperio, they do have marble and high production centers to churn out Heroic Epic for themselves. Something I really don't want to see.

Templars:
Be more specific about conflict with Imperio n the horizon. Lean on their code of honour to get a statement from them what they will do.
Ask, if they would consider trading us either copper/iron or horses against wine for a limited period of time. Press them agree to tech trade Aesthetics&Lit for Metal Casting.

mh

[regoarrarr]

That looks solid.

[Kylearan]

Hi,

nice plan of action, and I agree with asking PAL for a resource. Regarding Literature, c) not gifting it at all seems too harsh to me - that would trash our reputation and would make further deals with other teams a lot harder. a) and b) are problematic too, albeit less so, since they know we knew about the spy before accepting the trade, so they know we cheated them. A declaration of war (if they do it) looks less bad to other teams than agreeing to a deal knowing beforehand that you will hold back on part of the deal as "ransom", so even these two options might cause us diplomatic trouble.

I'd say we still try to make the deal honorably. Seeing them build Heroic Epic sometimes in the future (do they have a 10XP unit for that?) is still better than not trading at all, given our limited trading options at the moment.

-Kylearan

[Swiss Pauli]

Here is what I suggest we do to as far as conflict with Imperio is concerned.
Obviously securing our strategic resources is top of the list.
Therefore:

Worker actions:
O'Brien (currently roading Cape road):
T112: Cancel action
T113: Move SE - E
T114: Move to 1S of Cape Town
T115: Re-assess situation and either start pasture on horses or mine on copper

Helmholtz (currently awaiting orders at 2nd wine):
T112-T115: Move towards Cape Town
T116: Re-assess situation and either help pasture or mine

The mine was sabotaged this turn (which is why I didn't see it when I first logged in). This means the Spy can start to move from Mutal on T113. It has 4 turns of movement to get to the Horses, so T117 is the earliest opportunity for sabotage.

Depending on situation with horses, we are looking at the earliest resuming of production of spear/axes or horse archers at Cape Town on T120. Too late for my taste.

Therefore to bridge that period:

Diplomatic actions:
PAL:
Call in favor and get copper supply from them on T113! That should allow Cape Town to continue producing meaningful units. Workers can concentrate on horses first.

I favour asking for Horses if ours get pillaged, as PAL are at war, have no Iron, and likely want their Copper. Archers, or Walls in Cape until the copper is mined.

Imperio:
Offer Aesthetics vs. Currency in game.
Promising them Literacy, but
a) either holding it back for a to be specified period arguing "unsafe passage of messengers due to unknown spies active"
b) exchanging it for a hefty sum of gold (reparations for destroyed mine & pasture)
c) not gifting it at all.
Keep in mind, should conflict start with Imperio, they do have marble and high production centers to churn out Heroic Epic for themselves. Something I really don't want to see.

How many battles would Imperio need to generate a Great General to unlock Heroic Epic? We haven't seen much barb-XP on their active units.


Templars:
Be more specific about conflict with Imperio n the horizon. Lean on their code of honour to get a statement from them what they will do.
Ask, if they would consider trading us either copper/iron or horses against wine for a limited period of time. Press them agree to tech trade Aesthetics&Lit for Metal Casting.

mh

I'd leave Templars out of our conflict with Imperio. If we take their perspective then they should be interested in dogpiling the civ who's taking the most damage in a war. If we seem weak then they might even actively ally with Imperio (in return for a bribe). The Knights Templar weren't always that principled IIRC...

As to tech, should we not propose Philo for MC, and ask for a quick answer? If they say 'yes', we can always go back to them and say we couldn't get a commitment from other civs to trade for Philo, so we won't be pursuing it in the short-term. Same idea with Banana for Machinery. If we can snag these two techs then we conspiciously upgrade axes in Cape Town.

EDIT: we need to time an upgrade with access to metals (just tested in another game).

[sooooo]

Looks good m_h. I think we should abandon plans for a monastery at Airstrip One for now and have it switch to production mode and military.

[mostly-harmless]

I think it kind of autoswitched since the copper for the half finished spear was lost. We need A1 on research for HBR.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

One other thought:
We have a Non-Aggression-Pact with Imperio. I see destroying tile improvement (especially strategic resources) as pretty aggressive.
I think we have plausible Casus Belli on Imperio.

What are the chances to make a preemptive strike against Imperio before T120?
Chichen Itza is only defended by a single Holkan. There is only one 2move unit at Mutal (a Chariot) and their fertile lands west of Mutal (2 x hamlet, iron & gold) lay open for pillaging for a quick Chariot rush. Just an idea.

@Swiss: I did not know that the spy goes back to Mutal. That's good news.

mh

[regoarrarr]

Yeah I was kind of thinking that too - that if we wanted to, we could make a pretty solid argument that they broke the NAP. I'm not sure that we WANT to but if we did, I think we could certainly make the case.

And if we can make a few aggressive (read: successful) moves, Templars would be more likely to join us. As someone pointed out in some thread, from their perspective, they might be more likely to dogpile the civ that is getting the short end

[Dreylin]

I've just gone back down the Imperio contact thread, and confirmed that we don't really have grounds for complaint. As written; the NAP agreement expired on T100 with a 20T buffer period during which neither side could "declare war". While I don't like what they've done, espionage was not specified in the terms of the buffer-period and for them it is a very smart move - especially if they follow-up with cutting our Horses.

We don't really have a leg to stand on, and any complaints will come off as whining imo.

[sunrise089]

I disagree. Spy actions are the same as privateer actions - once you know who ordered the attack it amounts to a declaration of war. One of Imperio's units crossed into our territory, and without consent destroyed part of our land...the fact that they were duplicitous about it doesn't make it any less offensive than if we had just openly declared and pillaged with our galley.

I don't know if I favor a declaration on our part...especially without Templar support of neutrality, but it would certainly serve Imperio right. Truthfully though, other than a certain moral victory stemming from taking the fight to the enemy, we have no reason to declare war before we've built at least a small stack of two-mover anyways. I CAN envision us declaring in a half dozen turns if we have 4 chariots/HAs positioned in Templar land and Imperio pillages our horses.

I also support delaying the Lit gift until we have the metal reconnected. Something like was suggested above: "We would like to honor our promise to supply Literature, but dangerous rogues in the shadows make traveling conditions hazardous...we will need the safety of metal-wielding troops to ensure our scholars' safety" seems perfectly fitting to me.

[ruff_hi]

I also support delaying the Lit gift until we have the metal reconnected. Something like was suggested above: "We would like to honor our promise to supply Literature, but dangerous rogues in the shadows make traveling conditions hazardous...we will need the safety of metal-wielding troops to ensure our scholars' safety" seems perfectly fitting to me.

That sounds 100% fine except that we are dealing with a team that has 'English as their second language' and they would miss the point.

Suggest something like ...

"Sorry - Literature trade delayed ... someone pillaged our copper ... we are reviewing the situation"

... maybe "some low-life pillaged our copper"?

Edit: of course we know it was them ... but we don't need to tell them that we know it was them ... do we?

[sunrise089]

Ok, but then I fear "reviewing the situation" gives the impression we may cancel the trade. I like "Sorry - Literature trade delayed ... someone pillaged our copper ... we will make the trade as soon as our copper is hooked back up."

[mostly-harmless]

We can send the more elaborate message and a short Spanish one. Let them figure out the English message.

mh

[Zeviz]

Considering that we would be agreeing to Literature trade after the copper was pillaged, we have no excuse to hold it back. (And even if copper was pillaged later, we couldn't hold back literature unless our agreement explicitly specified that agreement would be broken if they commit hostile action.) So holding back Literature would be one of the worst mistakes we could make, because it would wreck our reputation with other teams, making future deals much more difficult.

If we break our promise on the Literature deal, it's game over for us.

Similarly, we have no excuse to declare war before turn 120, because, as written, the NAP has already expired and we are just in the "no official declaration of war" period. In fact, I suspect Imperio know English much better than they claim and are using "me no speak English good" as an excuse when they want to slow down negotiations.

[sunrise089]

@Zevis: I think the above post is a bit too strong.
Considering that we would be agreeing to Literature trade after the copper was pillaged, we have no excuse to hold it back. (And even if copper was pillaged later, we couldn't hold back literature unless our agreement explicitly specified that agreement would be broken if they commit hostile action.)
I don't support any assertion that Imperio is morally in the clear for their pillage (and a clear lead-up to war pillage at that). It would be an unkind move for us to hold the trade up, but no team in their right mind would suspect that RB are no longer potential trading allies - they would (I hope) properly realize we're valued allies so long as we are not betrayed.

So holding back Literature would be one of the worst mistakes we could make, because it would wreck our reputation with other teams, making future deals much more difficult.

PAL is the uberwarmonger, but Banana trades with them. Templars are religion knights, but they trade with everyone. Tony was a jerk to all of the other teams, and no one holds it against his team. Imperio pillaged our metal and is probably going to attack us, but we still want to trade with them. PAL lied to us about horses...ditto. People trade when they think the trade makes sense.

Similarly, we have no excuse to declare war before turn 120, because, as written, the NAP has already expired and we are just in the "no official declaration of war" period. In fact, I suspect Imperio know English much better than they claim and are using "me no speak English good" as an excuse when they want to slow down negotiations.
We might not feel it is prudent to declare sooner, but we certainly have an excuse. PAL is gaming the T120 rule by blocking off communications, building up their troops, organizing trading blocs against us, and invading our land with active spies. That's an excellent excuse to declare.

You very well may be right about the Spanish stuff...clever.

I'm happy to be shown otherwise, but I think we're over-emphasizing the importance of trust among the teams. Sure teams want to make sure trade deals are honored, but NOT more than they want to avoid being attacked. To the extent teams are willing to trade with bullies like PAL it is because they feel they are better off for it, NOT because PAL are honorable traders. The willingness for teams to trade while competing, along with the lack of willingness to trade military monopoly techs tells me teams are being much more Machiavellian than idealistic about their trading choices.

[mostly-harmless]

I wholeheartedly agree with sunrises reply.
mh

[regoarrarr]

me too

[sooooo]

I'm not sure that Imperio will actually trade us currency for those two techs. I think they were emailing us to see if we'd tell them how many turns until we get literature, just fishing for information really. Still - we'll know this turn. They haven't logged in yet.

[mostly-harmless]

Some (minor) good news on the horizon. Cape Town will pop its 3rd ring next turn, giving us additional 20% cultural defense.
Every little helps.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

I know we're all upset about the situation with Imperio, but:

- They must be kicking themselves for ever agreeing a NAP. By rights we should be dead by now. They would have been if the starting positions were reversed.

- Spies are a PITA, but it's not cheating.

- We pressed PAL to delay CoL to stop Imperio's CS Sling. They may know, or may have deduced, that we were behind this move.

- They may be trying to goad us into a rash war declaration of our own: we've seen a lot of production switching, but they don't have an army capable of taking cities yet.

- The longer we're at peace, the stronger we become.

- Both Imperio and Templars fear us...just look at some of names on our roster!

As a post-script, I think PAL used the time that Banana was building Pyramids to settle aggressive and deny Banana expansion, so they got stuck as a 4CC lame duck (long term). Hence the near expiry of the team.

[mostly-harmless]

About non-Slavery Imperio, I was thinking they might surprise us with a Golden Age and a non-Anarchy swap to Slavery in the beginning of the war.
However, they are still miles away (T140) from their second Great Prophet (Mutal - Stonehenge & Oracle). It will take 200 GPP for 2nd GP, right?

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

I moved mh's post into this thread as this (a) seemed a better place for it, and (b) I wanted to test the functionality in order to copy Sullla's SotE posts to set up the Urban Planning thread ;)

[Swiss Pauli]

About non-Slavery Imperio, I was thinking they might surprise us with a Golden Age and a non-Anarchy swap to Slavery in the beginning of the war.
However, they are still miles away (T140) from their second Great Prophet (Mutal - Stonehenge & Oracle). It will take 200 GPP for 2nd GP, right?

It's 200 GPP for their next GP, but they could get it sooner than T140 by running specialists if they wanted.

One thing we shouldn't rule out is that Imperio have chosen not to run Slavery for either role playing reasons (which could be discarded in an emergency), or that they find real life slavery so abhorrent that they carry over this objection into a fantasy realm like CIV.

[mostly-harmless]

How dare you moving my posts! ;)

Running specialists is not an option for Imperio, as they have only one building that allows hiring specialists.
That building would be the Islamic shrine in Lakamha.
The shrine was erected on T88 and gives 1GPP itself. It allows for 3 hired priests max.
a) Hiring all three priests from the beginning (highly unlikely) would have seen a Great Prophet popping on T108. Did not happen.
b) Hiring two priests from the beginning (still highly unlikely) would give them a Great Prophet on T118.
c) Hiring one priests from the beginning (again, why would they do that, if they have two GP wonders in Mutal) would give them a Great Prophet on T139.

Hiring two priests in Lakamha right after the shrine was erected to pop a Great Prophet in time for the NAP expiry to get a GA to give anarchy-free slavery swap, requires more fore-planning than I am willing to credit them with. Just think of all the tech trades that had to click into place for this scenario.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

Given the recent developments, I thought I'd sketch out how I think this could pan out in a worst case scenario, and assumes we can't trade in MC:

1. Imperio DoWs, bribing Templars to close borders. We lose all foreign trade.

2. Templars complete Theocracy, getting Currency from Imperio, CS from PAL, and Compass from Banana.

3. Imperio meets Banana, and gets Machinery for Currency and *another tech*.

4. Templars dogpile with their recently upgraded Maces.

In terms of survival, I don't see a major problem for us, but we stand to lose competiveness if the war(s) drag on, particularly if Templars target A1 (using spy intel), realise they can't take the city (after we whip up defenders), and pillage our cottages instead. A lack of foreign trade would be particularly painful.

As to point three, we should be able to get MC (and therefore Machinery) ourselves before Banana meets Imperio. We should offer to help Banana meet Imperio with the proviso that they insist on a fair price for Machinery, and don't make the deal until after they give us Machinery. We should discuss this further in the Banana thread, as they asked us about this.

I can't log in atm to see what the other tech would be, nor the length of time it would take for Banana to meet Imperio.

[mostly-harmless]

Re. 1: I am not even sure we have intercontinental trade if only Imperio closes their borders.

We could try to lean on PAL to pressure Templars to keep open borders, as Imperio and Templars are not big enough to serve all PALs intercontinental trade routes. They would loose ~8gpt.

Should we be able to counter attack, Chichen Itza must be our #1 target to keep trade going.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Someone help me out here, for our trade routes to stay alive and for our wine-gems deal with PAL it would suffice if PAL has open borders with Imperio and/or Templars, right?
Assuming that is correct, I understand that it won't help us much at the moment (should Tem & Imp close borders) because PAL has not scouted a route to RB. But, and here is the plan, we could (temporarily) gift them the scout and the galley and tell them exactly where to go to open up the trade routes again.

All this assuming the first statement is true.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

AFAIK, that's not correct as I think uninterrupted OBs are required: look at that barb city and PAL blocking our link to Rabbits. Our trade route with Banana should be via Imperio and PAL (and not via Templar who don't have OBs with Banana).

[mostly-harmless]

Hmm, I can see the barb city blocking our sea trade routes, but do we really have a scouted route through PAL? We might be missing the odd roaded tile there.

EDIT: Yes, confirmed, we do not have a land route scouted to Rabbits.
mh

[mostly-harmless]

Looking at the map I have a few suggestion for unit movements before a potential DoW.
Lady Godiva should maneuver into a position where she gets teleported to Imperio's northern border, so she can bind forces there and potentially pillage a camp and a gold mine.
We could even consider, moving a couple of spears and axes to Imperios north right now for that purpose.

My initial thought was to have the galley go back north to threaten Imperio's 5 sea food resources, but it looks lie we will loose PAL trade routes if Imperio closes borders, regardless what Templars do. So the galley should at least continue S-SE to get a line of sight into The Warning and the stretch of coast to its south. That will give us a trade connection to PAL via Templars land if I am right.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

Important note: I moved our new horse archer one tile south of Cape Town, so that Imperio can't see it. I'm going to move all new units out of Cape Town down there, to try and bait them into a foolish attack. At this point, I'm confident we can defend their attack, so I want them to try their luck, get totalled on the counter-attack, and then leave us an opportunity to start grabbing territory with a perfectly legit casus belli.


I think we should discuss this in the T120 Crisis thread. The alternative is to have enough visible force to deter them from attacking altogether, conclude a NAP, then we go after Templar. I'm unsure which I prefer, but I think it warrants discussion.

[Dreylin]

I think we should discuss this in the T120 Crisis thread. The alternative is to have enough visible force to deter them from attacking altogether, conclude a NAP, then we go after Templar. I'm unsure which I prefer, but I think it warrants discussion.

Personally, I would rather have Imperio's land than Templars....

[Swiss Pauli]

posts above moved from turnplayer thread

[regoarrarr]

I agree with what Sullla said earlier - I am hoping that Imperio DOES declare war, we totally paste them, and then use that as a trigger to (possibly eventually) take all their land.

[sunrise089]

I agree with the Imperio-hawks: Imperio has done more to anger us, they are the larger threat, and they have better land to grab.

[regoarrarr]

And if they dont' declare war, I think we already have enough of a casus belli with the copper pillaging. I mean REAL wars have been fought over less :lol:

[T-hawk]

But of course the problem comes in backing up our swagger. We can employ the best microanalysts in history, who can't do squat against macemen if we lose our strategic resource supply.

Our window of actually conquering territory is not until Gunpowder and our solid resourceless unique unit. Let's keep that in mind...

[Swiss Pauli]

I'm agree with T-Hawk insofar as our time to conquer territory is not now. We might be able to smash Templars around the time we get Guilds, but for now any war will hurt our economy more than we'll gain. We have no strong city defenders, so we'd have to go on a razing spree.

If we're relying on our Imperio being incompetent in war then that's one heck of risk to take. Templars have shown themselves to be grasping little so-and-sos lately, so we shouldn't rule out them closing borders after accepting a bribe. Given we're evenly matched with Imperio in terms of unit strength on open ground, casualties will be high on both sides. Imperio, in fact, has the advantage of LBs when it comes to defending their cities. We need only look at PAL's struggles with Rabbits after we gave the latter Archery to see that it won't be easy to get the better of Imperio.

If Imperio declares on us then they're setting our agenda, and that can't be to our maximum advantage. I'd favour trying for a NAP, so that we have the chance of starting our military expansion according to our timetable.

[sunrise089]

You're right of course Swiss. I was just thrown off by the "go after Templar stuff" above. My order of preferences is 1) war with Imperio later, 2) war with Templars later, 3) war with Imperio now, 4) war with Templars now.

[regoarrarr]

Okay then. So with (at least the possibility of) war in 2 turns, is there anything that we want to think of? Here are a few random thoughts

What do we do if Imperio declares war on the brink of T120? (Or is our NAP good through T120 and they can't declare war till T121?). I know that generally we have an idea of what we want to do, but specifically - are there any actions that we want to take / not take?

Do we have volunteers waiting to be available as the turn rolls over?

Do we want to make any kinds of moves right away? Or is there any advantage to waiting till they play and giving ourselves extra time?

Sullla - are you comfortable with playing MP war turns? Or is there another team member that should play them?

I don't know the answers to any of these questions. I have next to zero MP experience (and am not even really a very good SP player). But I figure that rather than reacting rashly when it happens, we should come up with the answers to these (and possibly other related questions) now, so we're all on the same page with what we do, if and when Imperio (and/or Templars!) declare war.

[sunrise089]

As long as there are no double moves we're fine. There are all sorts of time-sensitive MP combat tricks, but they aren't an issue if the enemy cannot move next to our city and then attack it quickly. (12 hours isn't quickly).

[sooooo]

If Imperio were remotely sensible they would cancel open borders with us. We'd lose Banana's iron, PAL's ivory and gems and all of our overseas trade-routes. Of course we would lose all of these things if they declare war too.

We need to get the RBS discovery to sail through templars' waters and get a trade route via the southern coast.

EDIT: Hmm, or maybe our road link to Templars' eastern coast is enough to preserve the intercontinental trade routes?

[Swiss Pauli]

As I understand it, as long as there's a route with between us and Templars without fog we'll be OK: we don't have to have to have cleared all the fog ourselves. I don't think there's enough space for a barb city to spring up down there. And FWIW SF will get a border pop next turn.

[darrelljs]

Well, T120 has come and gone. My nightmare was some kind of co-ordinate DoW from our continent mates, but instead nada. Did Imperio feel they lacked the sauce needed to take our goods? Are they waiting for those last few crucial Medieval units to complete (since they can't whip them :huh:). Are they still trying to convince the Templars to double team us? Or, was their military buildup purely a deterence?

Darrell

[sunrise089]

I suspect they're hoping to out-build us (sad if they can't, since we have only one city on military most of the time). I think they're at least smart enough to whip the last round of units, so some empire-wide whipping would serve as a war warning for me.

I'd say that if we manage to turn out a mix of strong units (HA, cat, mace, jumbo) at the rate of 1 every 1-2 turns we'll probably deter the attack at this point though.

[sooooo]

Our power jumped slightly ahead of Imperio's this turn. I wonder if both of our power keeps rising at this current rate they may be tempted to divert their attentions to templars (who have poor production).

Sunrise: possibly you could suggest which units we need to build. Say templars have 5 catapults. How many HAs would we need to flank it? I would guess that most of the HAs would die because they are facing elephants. Also to defend against catapult/elephant/HA stacks, should we build more macemen or more elephants?

[sunrise089]

Let's assume equal numbers of units.

If we have, say, 4 catapults or more the battle goes like this: our four cats hit and die, our elephants hit and kill their elephants, our horse archers hit and kill their horse archers AND kill/wound their cats, and finally our bonus obsolete units mop up.

In that case we don't need many maces...they have a slightly easier counter (level 2 promo versus level 3) and crossbows come a little earlier than pikes.

On the other hand, with zero or 1 cat...I hit with the one cat, take the withdraw promo on the HAs, and hope we had enough to kill the enemy cats. If we did, I'd want all maces in the city receiving defensive bonuses if the enemy was left with more troops than us.

In terms of pure numbers, we want even numbers of elephant, cats, and HAs until we have at least 5 cats.

[Zeviz]

In this case, should we focus on Elephants instead of HAs? (According to C&D thread, Imperio has 3 elephants, but only 1 HA and 2 chariots. And they seem to be training more Elephants than HAs.)

[sunrise089]

I advise a 3-way split because the HAs are still super-useful as 2-move defenders and attackers even aside from their flanking bonus.

[Swiss Pauli]

Well, T120 has come and gone. My nightmare was some kind of co-ordinate DoW from our continent mates, but instead nada. Did Imperio feel they lacked the sauce needed to take our goods? Are they waiting for those last few crucial Medieval units to complete (since they can't whip them :huh:). Are they still trying to convince the Templars to double team us? Or, was their military buildup purely a deterence?

Well, maybe I should rename the thread to the T124 Imperio/Templar crisis, as this is the turn when the former could have their units in place to declare war, and it's also when our NAP with Templars expires.

Looking at it from Imperio's perspective, they really missed their window of opportunity by respecting the NAP that's just expired, and now they find themselves caught between two stools: attack us now, and they get caught in a stalemate, but if they wait much longer, we'll be even more powerful. Their logical alternative would be to go after Templars, but turning down a 50 turn NAP with us doesn't seem to indicate that they have this in mind.

Templars are the wild-card here: they certainly aren't a threat on their own, but they could hurt us economically and militarily by closing borders. It'll also be intriguing to see what they get in return for Theology; I can see PAL trading them CS, and Imperio Compass, but neither us nor Banana have much use for the tech (though it would unlock Edu).

[darrelljs]

Hmm...so both the Templars and Imperio turned down NAP extensions? That looks like handwriting on the wall to me.

Darrell

[sooooo]

I moved the chariot to see if the imperio worker was continuing the road and he is not! He is nowhere to be seen.

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/3179/templarsroad.jpg (http://img27.imageshack.us/my.php?image=templarsroad.jpg)

Weird. Their chariot moved into our territory and out again to check the garrison at Cape Town.

[mostly-harmless]

If the Chariot can move one more tile, I suggest to go 1SW to check out the tiles between Imp & Tem.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

With Imperio completing Machinery, I would expect to see some 5XP Maces to be seen soon in the Imperio army, which would explain the recent queue shuffling.

[Swiss Pauli]

But having to face down Imperio is a lose-lose situation, as PAL will only get that much further ahead. (And their population is really starting to pull away from the rest of the field now, with PAL no longer needing to whip military.)

I would strongly recommend that we send another email to Imperio, telling them that we will both lose if they declare war on us, and asking AGAIN for a non-agression pact so we can both stop this insane military buildup. Imperio has done nothing but build units nonstop for the past dozen turns in their major cities. It's like they're willfully sabotaging their chances of winning the game just to screw us over...


Frankly, I'm out of ideas as to how we can dress up our offer of a NAP to Imperio as something that would be beneficial to them. We tried the stick last time, only for them to go get an even bigger stick to hit us with :rolleyes: We don't have any carrots to offer (that I can think of, anyway), but let's see if we can come up with a proposal they might see as a win-win...

[T-hawk]

Well, think about it from Imperio's POV. We're bigger and have a strong UU only a few techs away. They will lose the long game. Their only chance to win is to attack as soon as manageable. If they're going to go down, better to do it in glory.

Also, this military buildup really isn't costing us much, as Sullla has pointed out before. We are (or should be) devoting only Cape Town to unit production, while the rest of our cities are doing plenty of building for the future. Status quo is OK for us. Imperio has to make the first move.

[timmy827]

I may actually have some time now to put in my thoughts for a change. But first I need to ask a noob question as I have zero MP experience.

Presumably if/when Imperio attacks they will try to double move to the tile 1NE of Cape Town (just before timer expires). Does this mean that as soon as the clock turns over, both sides can throw their units at the other stack as fast as they can click?

I'm concerned about relying on horse archers to flank their catapults. Their weakness against elephants means that they do less flanking damage as well; would probably need around 6-7 successes to kill the cats. And since collateral damage isn't affected by their fractional health, knocking all the cats to 25% life doesn't help all that much. My preference would be for more catapults (at least more than 1) to beat up their field units to give our maces/phants an edge against theirs.

[Kodii]

Presumably if/when Imperio attacks they will try to double move to the tile 1NE of Cape Town (just before timer expires). Does this mean that as soon as the clock turns over, both sides can throw their units at the other stack as fast as they can click?

There are strict rules set in place about double-moving in war for this demogame. If you check out the main BtS demogame forum, you'll see how double-moving got messy in the PAL-Rabbit war, and caused many a delay. I am unsure of the exact wording of the rule.

EDIT: Here it is

The Double Move Rule : 48 hour turns

1. No double moves during a time of war, except as noted below.

During times of war all concerned Civ's should allow for 1/2 the turn timer (24 hours) to pass between moves if the other Civs involved in the war have not moved since a concerned Civ has moved.

In other words: You cannot make moves during periods of war until either one of two things have occured:

i. All other concerned Civs in a war (being at war in game) have made moves/completed one turn since you have made your moves/completed a turn.

ii. 1/2 the turn timer (24 hours) has past since you made your moves/completed your turn.

The reason "made your moves/completed your turn" is worded that way is that a team can log in make some moves, log out, log back in and make more moves. Once a team makes ANY moves the requirement that says a team must make a move/complete a turn is fullfilled.

[Sullla]

Aside from what Kodii posted about the double-move rule, also keep in mind that we have an archer and chariot watching Imperio's every move in their territory. (Why Imperio hasn't closed borders is beyond us. ;)) Imperio's stack is almost entirely made up of one-move units - they only have one horse archer and two chariots - so we will have plenty of advance warning before they begin the attack. It's literally impossible for them to sneak up on us, at least not without closing borders first.

In terms of defense, we're definitely planning on adding more catapults in the near future. sunrise recommended building elephants first, because we can't build them if we lose our ivory supply, and we can always build resourceless cats. Our defensive strategy would look something like this:

1) Hit Imperio stack with catapults (ideally at least 5)
2) Eliminate elephants with high-attack units (maces/elephants)
3) Destroy Imperio cats by flanking with horse archers

Maces make things slightly more complicated, but only slightly so. We can still continue to build elephants, horse archers, and cats to form the bulk of our defense. Because of the double-move rule, Imperio can't strike before we have a chance to hit them with our siege stack, meaning that so long as numbers are roughly equal, we will win. Combat in BTS highly favors the defender, thanks to flanking. :)

[mostly-harmless]

As far as I can see we are looking now at the earliest DoW date = T125 and a first possibility of Imperio attacking Cape Town at T126.

If they delay even further they might be in for a surprise as the somewhat important tile between Cape Town and Chichen Itza will change hands (to us) soon. It is currently at 42%. Loosing that tile will mean one additional turn of warning for us.

mh

[Sullla]

Longer than that, mh. If they move right now, they can be outside Cape Town on T126, and ready to attack on T127. And that's only if they start moving their stack immediately, before the current turn ends (T123). We essentially have a 3-turn grace period between when they start moving and when they get to our city.

We're in very good shape to meet and destroy their stack if it chooses to come after Cape Town. Unfortunately, 42% is still ages away in terms of cultural border clashes - maybe another 20 turns for that tile to change over, if not more. Whatever though, Imperio is not going to get through our defenses unless something crazy happens. :cool:

[regoarrarr]

How are our defenses looking for a non-Cape Town attack? Either just Imperio or any kind of joint attack

[Sullla]

Imperio can't really attack anywhere except at Cape Town; if they try to send their units through Templar territory (which I do not think would happen, for trust reasons) we will spot it ahead of time, and move units accordingly.

Templars would not have much luck if they tried to strike at Pink. We have an axe, spear, and archer in the city, plus a partially-built horse archer in production. Any move against Pink or Something Fishy will be spotted long ahead of time, and with tons of cities in the area to whip emergency units, we should be fine. It would set our development back, no question, but I'm pretty sure we could avoid losing any cities.

The one real weak spot in our defenses is a sudden move out of Jericho straight for Airstrip One. We are working on fixing this, by building the Pink/Cape road and researching Engineering to speed up our reinforcement time. For the same reason, I'm advocating that our next settler go to Twin Peaks, which will plug that gap with a fortress garrison. Even if we would fail to hold Twin Peaks, the delay would likely enable us to scramble enough soldiers to protect the rest of our territory.

We would be in trouble if facing an Imperio/Templars combination, but we're working on that as well diplomatically. :)

[sunrise089]

@Timmy - Here is my thinking in valuing the flanking ability of cats.

Lets say RB and Imperio each have 20 units. Perhaps 10 strong one-movers, 5 cats, and 5 horse archers. The goal is to kill their units as quickly as possible - why allow them the ability to retreat or promote/heal, and why delay a counterattack? Here is where flanking matters:

Event 1: RB uses our 5 cats on the enemy stack. We loose all of them. RB - 15 units, Imperio - 20 units.

Event 2: RB attacks with all of our elephants and maces. We win every or nearly every battle against their wounded troops on flat land. RB - 15 units, Imperio - 10 units.

Event 3 - RB attacks with our only unmoved units, our 5 horse archers. They win every battle against the weakest enemies AND kill the cats due to flanking damage. RB - Nearly 15 units, Imperio - close to 0 units.

This is much more difficult in MP because the enemy will generally 2v1 a front and have many more units, and also because the defender has at most 8 seconds to do all of this before the enemy either hits with their cats or moves their 2-movers to threaten other cities. In SP though I see it as a slam dunk.

[sooooo]

Here's a picture of the current Imperio front for those who don't log in that much.

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/7910/turn124.jpg (http://img26.imageshack.us/my.php?image=turn124.jpg)

[mostly-harmless]

Unfortunately, 42% is still ages away in terms of cultural border clashes - maybe another 20 turns for that tile to change over, if not more.

Not sure this is true. The tile went up from 42% last turn to 44% this turn. That looks promising. At this rate the tile is ours in 4 turns!
I remember I tested it in WB once, but can't find the post now.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

Had a look into the game, and Imperio has moved their attack stack out of Mutal into the fog! They've also moved a cat & mace out of Lamakha towards the desert hill stack south of Mutal, and their scouting chariot is now 1S of Cape Town. I expect Sullla will spot the ex-Mutal stack by moving Lady G & B-JT, but I've idea what Imperio is up to (no change there then ;) ). In case they're planning a move on Templars, I'll draft a NAP email.

[Sullla]

Imperio on the move? Looks like we'd better start paying close attention. I should be able to log into the game and start typing up some stuff for the current turn in a little bit. :)

[mostly-harmless]

T126:
Imperio was quick to log in and move their units:
1.) there is a chariot now sitting on the Bad Ass spot. Not sure where it came from though. Could be through Templar lands. It is clearly on a scouting mission. If this one actually gets teleported to our northern borders or into the central area when war breaks out, it could create headaches. We should also guard our two northern cities better now.
2.) The main stack seems to have moved further east. I will leave it to Sullla to follow them again with our scouts.
3.) Their 2nd army (Phant,2xLbow,2xCat,Cahriot) is moving west towards Cape Town. Again, if their idea is to have that stack teleported behind our frontlines, it could create problems.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Double Post.

[regoarrarr]

Do WE want to consider closing borders?

[mostly-harmless]

No, that would leave us without scouting info on the whereabouts of their stack.
Also I am not 100% convinced our trade routes will all work through Templars.

mh

[T-hawk]

I am sure our trade routes work through Templars.

Pink Dot and Jerusalem are directly connected by river. Peak tiles do count for river connections (I learned this in Focal Point), so we are connected through the peak 1N of Jerusalem. Jerusalem is then connected to the next river (Constantinople's), through the tiles NE (cow) - N (river forest) - NE (horse). That river connects to the sea a few tiles west of Acre, thence to coastal connection to PAL and everyone beyond.

[Sullla]

So long as it's just a single scouting chariot, there's no need to close borders. We can easily shadow that unit and prevent it from doing mischief. Now if their huge main army starts moving past Cape Town, yeah, we might need to close the borders. Still a couple of turns away from reaching that decision point, however...

Obviously we are not going to let Imperio march past Cape Town without putting up some kind of a fight.

[Swiss Pauli]

T126:
Imperio was quick to log in and move their units:
1.) there is a chariot now sitting on the Bad Ass spot. Not sure where it came from though. Could be through Templar lands. It is clearly on a scouting mission. If this one actually gets teleported to our northern borders or into the central area when war breaks out, it could create headaches. We should also guard our two northern cities better now.
2.) The main stack seems to have moved further east. I will leave it to Sullla to follow them again with our scouts.
3.) Their 2nd army (Phant,2xLbow,2xCat,Cahriot) is moving west towards Cape Town. Again, if their idea is to have that stack teleported behind our frontlines, it could create problems.

mh

1. The chariot was 1S of Cape Town at the end of last turn. As to teleport danger, maybe we should leave Betty where she is for now.

2. Yeah. Imperio boats PAL :eek: Maybe they're moving east to get a proper run at us :p

3. It moved 1W along a road, gaining nothing :dizzy: I agree that we shouldn't tolerate this stack in our lands, though.

4. They sent their Mace/cat pair N-NE. Weirdos.

[mostly-harmless]

In the light of Imperios main stack moving further east and the remote possibility that they move towards PAL ... why on earth would they not secure their flank and sign a NAP with us?

mh

[regoarrarr]

Yeah that is what I can not figure out. Even if they are moving against Templars (as someone suggested), surely they would want a NAP with us?

[Swiss Pauli]

In the light of Imperios main stack moving further east and the remote possibility that they move towards PAL ... why on earth would they not secure their flank and sign a NAP with us?

mh

Because we haven't offered them one for a few turns ;)

Maybe they saw our boat sail by and trained one of their own to explore the NE tip of PAL's continent? Maybe they plan to settle over there and are taking a large 'insurance policy' with them. Maybe their turnplayer is bored, or wants to confuse us.

Maybe, maybe, maybe...

[ruff_hi]

maybe they haven't made up their mind ...

Options:
RB
Templars
PAL
Other

Quick - roll a four sided die and lets declare!

[Zeviz]

maybe they haven't made up their mind ...

Options:
RB
Templars
PAL
Other

Quick - roll a four sided die and lets declare!
So if Templars are deferring their diplomacy to AI Toku, Imperio is secretly run by AI Monty? :p

(Although it sounds more like AI Alex: Build up a decent stack and then attack a neighbor with whom you had OB.)

[mostly-harmless]

In case they pull off something funny with galleys going west, can I suggest we train another alley ourselves and send it around the Imperio coast to intercept anything surprising coming our way.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

With Imperio marching their main army east, there is an opportunity opening up for us to grab Chichen Itza.
The all important tile 2NE of Cape Town will flip to us on turn X (T128). Engineering and +1 road movement will be available the same turn (T128).
At turn X we declare war & move RB Army I (4 cats & additional units) to the tile 1S of Chicen Itza.
CI is guarded by 2 Lbows & 1 Holkan and only 20% culutral defense. 4 suicide cats and 3 maces/phants/HA should do the job and net us CI on turn X+1 (T129). CI will not be encroached by Mutal culutre. Both important tiles (farmed/roaded wheat & mined/unroaded gold) will be available to us. Culutral borders will still allow for unrestricted movement between CT and CI.
CI will come with Christianity, Lighthouse, Granary & Barracks.
Loosing CI will cost them 29gpt
Imperios main army will either be on galleys by then or do whatever it is they were planning to do in the east. Their 1movers will need 3-4 turns to reach the front line.

Thoughts?

I am not sure I like Imperio grabbing 4 more silver mines on top of their 4 gold mines.

mh

[Sullla]

And what happens after we capture Chichen Itza? This is a human team we're facing, not an AI who will simply make peace.

Remember the plan, mh. We want peace now so we can continue to push for our drafted Oromos. Only another ~35 more turns, and then we'll have enough force to eliminate Imperio or Templars completely, not just snag a border city off them. :)

[mostly-harmless]

Well, plans are made to be changed if an opportunity arises, no. :)
I don't see how capturing Chichen Itza prevents us from spamming Oromos in 35 turns.

What do we loose by attacking them before Bloodbath? It's not that we have any trade routes, resources trades or tech deals in place with them.

mh

[sooooo]

It's an interesting idea - let's see what Imperio are up to first.

[regoarrarr]

If we are wanting to patrol our west coast and stop any invading galleys, wouldn't a trireme (or 2) be better?

[mostly-harmless]

Yep, I was not aware that the trireme is available as well. Never built one.

mh

[Sullla]

What do we loose by attacking them before Bloodbath? It's not that we have any trade routes, resources trades or tech deals in place with them.


We lose if Imperio brings Templars into the war to defend against the horrible RB aggression. ;)

That said, if Imperio really does send half of their army over to the eastern continent, and we get some kind of NAP in place with Templars - sure, it's worth thinking about. Let's not put the cart before the horses as yet, however. Peace at this stage of the game is extremely good for our long-term plans. And we really don't know quite what Imperio is up to yet.

[sunrise089]

If we want to pursue the M_H plan we do at least need to make sure we get workers to the area, right? Or are the relevant tiles already roaded?

The main risk (aside from a Templar declaration - if we go this route we should offer very compelling NAP terms to Templars) is that Imperio goes crazy and slaves all of their cities. In that case we might have to do the same to keep up, and that lets PAL run away even more.

We COULD certainly try to leverage such an opportunity though - take the city and sue for peace by compensating them with a tech and NAP. Call it retribution for their spy actions. My worry would be they would still be more military-centered and make the eventual Oromo attack more difficult.

[mostly-harmless]

All tiles are roaded (thats what tipped us off in the first place, way back).
Imperio does not run Slavery!

mh

[Zeviz]

The biggest cost of early attack is that Imperio will be better prepared for the real one. I'd rather surprize them with an overwhelming force that captures all of their cities, than surprize them by stealing a city now and facing stronger opposition when the time comes.

[mostly-harmless]

Not necessarily.
They lose one of their core cities now, which will significantly hamper their tech&production advancement.
Chichen Itza will be the first target in the Bloodbath anyway, but now we can surprise them with a quick move, when that tile flips (I doubt Imp is monitoring it) and them no in Slavery, rather than have Imperio see the danger of the flipped tile and stockpile loads of defenders in CI.

Obviously we want to see what they actually do with their units and whether Templars will agree to a NAP.
I merely wanted to point out the opening of an opportunity here.

mh

[darrelljs]

Is it even possible to surprise a human? They'll know when we switch to Nationhood, and they might not have our cloak and dagger department but it doesn't take a lot of info to realize someone is drafting like mad.

If they declare on PAL, I'd be in favor of whipping out an army and going on a major offensiveagainst them, they surely can't handle a two front war at their size. I would not be in favor of just trying to snag one city.

Darrell

[Swiss Pauli]

Imperio & Templars saw fit to question whether we had Literature after we'd built the Great Library, so unless our army is in sight they might just overlook our drafting frenzy for a while at least...

[sunrise089]

I am more in favor of getting on city on the cheap than an all-out attack on them now.

@Darrell - They can see things coming a mile away, but if we have more cities AND nationhood we can out-produce them. MP players always see the attacking coming, but aside from tactical surprise, attacks still work if the attackers have overwhelming numbers.

[mostly-harmless]

This is our plan when the Imperio stack moves into our territory:
1) Hit Imperio stack with catapults (ideally at least 5)
2) Eliminate elephants with high-attack units (maces/elephants)
3) Destroy Imperio cats by flanking with horse archers

This is the latest update on the Imperio stack:
3 x Phant
2 x Mace
1 x HA
2 x Chariot (assuming the scout will join up)
7 x Cat
~5 x Longbow

Sunrise (or someone else), can you please re-asses what we need to win that battle? I am a bit concerned our current defenders at Cape Town are a bit small in numbers and we might have to hit them on T130/131 already. We have 40hpt at Cape Town + 38h overflow, so should be able to build units worth ~200h til T131.

mh

[sunrise089]

Right now Imperio's units are unpromoted, but I assume that will change before they move in. As long as we're on flat land all we really need is a bit of collateral and then all of our Maces, Elephants, and Horse Archers should win their battles. Maybe the axe as well.

The biggest danger really is that we probably won't be able to kill the entire stack in one turn and so whatever cats survive will be able to really hurt us with collateral. That should the survivable though because Imperio should have few units left that can actually kill units. With the current forces we have (2 cats, 3 strength-8 units, 3 strength-6 units) things could get dicey if the combat system has their maces defend first on flat land (does anyone know whether maces or jumbos would be the top defender with identical promotions?). With 200 hammers more in play though, I assume we can get two more elephants and one more cat. As long as we have equal numbers of strength-8 units and collateral I feel we'll be ok.

[sunrise089]

I ran a test in worldbuilder with our stack facing the Imperio stack in the open. Assumptions:

*Team RB - 4 strength-8 units, 4 horse archers, 4 cats, 1 ax, 4 spears, 3 archers.
*Imperio - 2 maces, 3 elephants, 2 horse archers, 4 longbows, 7 cats.
*One promo on each unit, combat one on everything but the cats who had collateral.

Results after one round:

*RB casualties - 3 cats, 1 horse archer, 1 archer
*Imperio casualties - 1 mace, 2 elephants, 1 horse archer, 4 longbows, 5 cats
*Imperio survivors - 1 war elephant, 1 mace, 1 horse archer, 2 cats
*Number of Imperio cats DAMAGED due to flanking - 7, number DESTROYED - 0.

Tomorrow I will run the test a few more times and try to refine it. But in general, we have a survivable situation. Assuming of course we don't run the simulation for real :)

[mostly-harmless]

Can you refine your sim with the forces like this:
*Team RB - 4 phant, 2 mace, 3 horse archers, 4 cats, 1 ax, 3 spears, 3 archers, 2 chariot

*Imperio - 2 maces, 3 elephants, 1 horse archers, 5 longbows, 8 cats, 1 Holkan, 2 Chariot

I think this is more up to date.

mh

[sunrise089]

Can you refine your sim with the forces like this:
*Team RB - 4 phant, 2 mace, 3 horse archers, 4 cats, 1 ax, 3 spears, 3 archers, 2 chariot

*Imperio - 2 maces, 3 elephants, 1 horse archers, 5 longbows, 8 cats, 1 Holkan, 2 Chariot

I think this is more up to date.

mh

Happy to. I will do so this afternoon.

Do you know if you assumption that all of the units have one promo is accurate? And has Imperio promoted anything to anything other than combat one? Have we?

[mostly-harmless]

Assume that all Imp units are unpromoted but have 5XPs (barracks & Vassalage) so can grab 2 promos.
I cannot say for how many units that is true, so assume the worst.
We can only say that one Imperio chariot is less than 2XP.
All our units have 3XP and are unpromoted except the two chariots which are CombatI+II&Shock and CombatI.

mh

[sunrise089]

Assume that all Imp units are unpromoted but have 5XPs (barracks & Vassalage) so can grab 2 promos.
I cannot say for how many units that is true, so assume the worst.
We can only say that one Imperio chariot is less than 2XP.
All our units have 3XP and are unpromoted except the two chariots which are CombatI+II&Shock and CombatI.

mh

I'll run the numbers with them unpromoted and then promoted. Imperio would be fools though to move next to our city without promoting the units.

[ruff_hi]

Do we have a plan for what we do after we decimate their initial stack?

options ...

start gearing up for round #2
Do we go on the offensive
do we contact them, tell them to stop being silly and ask for compensation for their unprovoked attack
other?

[sunrise089]

I would email them and tell them they just burned 200+ more hammers than we did and
that we can outproduce them.

Then I would offer a NAP.

With just a few cities on military and a wounded stack, I don't see us taking down Imperio's longbow-defended cities. But if they're incompetent and refuse to slave defenders than we should take any opportunities to pillage or raze a city that are presented.

EDIT - Imperio doesn't have the EP to do anything crazy do they? Like initiate a city revolt?

[mostly-harmless]

But if they're incompetent and refuse to slave defenders than we should take any opportunities to pillage or raze a city that are presented.

EDIT - Imperio doesn't have the EP to do anything crazy do they? Like initiate a city revolt?

Still no slavery for IMperio,
and no they have only ~230 EP, so that should not buy them a city revolt by a wide margin. T-Hawk?

mh

[sunrise089]

Still no slavery for IMperio,
and no they have only ~230 EP, so that should not buy them a city revolt by a wide margin. T-Hawk?

mh

Heh, at least this time I remembered. But surely if their stack gets wrecked and their Templar allies aren't able to take a city Imperio must revolt into slavery as a defensive measure. Right?

[ruff_hi]

... we should take any opportunities to pillage
this was my thinking too ... they have some nice looking towns just across the desert!

[T-hawk]

Still no slavery for IMperio,
and no they have only ~230 EP, so that should not buy them a city revolt by a wide margin. T-Hawk?

mh

From upthread (http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?p=5523183&highlight=revolt#post5523183)

City Revolt costs 500 EP base. The list of multiplier factors is pretty long, and there's no direct way in-game to see or work out the cost multiplier against your own cities. Here's a stab:

Distance +15%
Espionage spending -20% (if they have double ours)
Trade route -20% (only if they do it before declaring war which cancels the open borders)
Religion -25% (if Islam spreads there since Imperio owns the holy city)
Stationary spy -50%

Assuming Islam stays out of Cape Town, a revolt is possible at ~184 EP (500 * 1.15 * .8 * .8 * .5). Once war is declared, the trade route discount no longer applies so it will cost minimum ~230 EP.

Revolting Cape Town is a possibility with their current EP total, although it requires a spy stationary for a full 5 turns.

[mostly-harmless]

They don't have double our epts iirc and they don't get the trade route discount.

mh

[Dreylin]

But if the revolt before declaring war, they would only be able to attack CT with 2-move units on that turn before the revolt wears off, right?

[mostly-harmless]

Errr, mabye. Anyway there is only one Imp HA iirc.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

If we think a revolt is a live risk then we need to shred Imperio's stack once it reaches Cape Town.

Finally, in amongst everything else that's going on, let's try not to forget that we get Feudalism on T131.

[sunrise089]

I'm not the least bit worried about dropping cultural defense. If they hit us unwounded with 8 cats cultural defense on a flat tile isn't going to matter.

My concern was that a spy revolt might damage our units. I know a normal city revolt does.

[Swiss Pauli]

No, a spy revolt doesn't damage units IIRC.

[sunrise089]

Test 1 - M_H's best-guess unit and promo numbers from the last page:

*RB losses - 2 elephant, 4 cats
*Imperio losses - 1 mace, 1 elephant, 1 longbow

Test 2 - Imperio's units unpromoted:

*RB losses - 1 horse archer, 1 chariot, 2 cats
*Imperio losses - 2 elephants, 1 horse archer, 5 longbows, 1 holkan, 2 cats.

Test 3 - With two more RB cats

*RB losses - 1 mace, 1 horse archer, 1 chariot, 1 spear, 3 cats
*Imperio losses - 3 elephants, 2 maces, 3 longbows, 2 cats

Test 4 - With one more RB mace

*RB losses - 3 elephants, 1 mace, 1 spear, 4 cats
*Imperio losses - 1 elephant, 1 mace, 5 longbows, 1 holkan, 1 chariot

Test 5 - With two more RB maces due to one upgrade

*RB losses - 1 mace, 3 cats
*Imperio losses - 1 elephant, 1 mace, 4 longbows, 1 holkan.

Test 6 - With one more RB mace due to an upgrade and two more cats

*RB losses - 2 elephants, 2 maces, 2 horse archers, 6 cats
*Imperio losses - 1 mace, 3 longbows

Test 1 wasn't good, and hopefully we can avoid it by producing more units. Test 2, Test 3, and Test 4 left the Imperio stack critically wounded, where we could eliminate it the following turn without further casualties. Test 5 left the Imperio stack unable to threaten us, but also too strong to immediately destroy (we could still kill several units). Test 6 saw the RNG go terribly against us. Test 6 SHOULD have been the most dominant, but was actually second worst.

I re-ran Test 6 and got the following results:

*RB losses - 3 maces, 1 chariot, 1 spear, 3 archers, 5 cats
*Imperio losses - 2 elephants, 2 maces, 4 longbows, 1 holkan, 2 cats

[sunrise089]

A few further tests comparing 2 more cats versus 1 more mace -

Two cats results in a range of 2-5 Imperio strong units (strength 6 or better) surviving.

One more mace results in a range of 3-5 Imperio strong units surviving.

After running 10 more simulations it looks like 2 more cats is slightly better than one mace, so I'm changing my build vote to that.

[mostly-harmless]

Fine, as commander of the theatre, feel free to change Cape Town's productions as needed.
We should keep in mind that Imperio has a cat and another mace 1 turn behind their main army.

mh