Cloak & Dagger

[mostly-harmless]

Excel Reference Chart (http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADGStats.xls)

This is the thread for the less honorable tribesmen, who paralyze rabbits, peel bananas, betray PALs, threaten little islands with rising sea levels and do nasty things to Iberians to obtain information.

(I guess this threat becomes obsolete, once we can assign espionage & intelligence more directly to our competitors and can use the threads set up by Ruff.

However, for now I want to share a few thoughts here.

From the points awarded (all 31) I guess it is save to assume all teams have settled their capital.
Onwards to the demographics screen then. (This is for turn4)
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0114.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0114.JPG)

GNP: Everybody close together. We are in the lead because of being the only creative leader and culture counts into the GNP a well. So if you subtract the 2cpt we get extra we are still in the lead here.

MFG: Well only one hammer for us, because we work the cows for now.
The 4 hpt from the leader suggest that either a capital was settled on a plains hill and works another forest tile for example or a "normal" capital together with working a forested plains hill. If it the latter, someone stalls growth by churning out something fast.
Since the second option does not make much sense for an early strategy (or does it?) I would tend towards option 1, a settled plains hill ...

HOWEVER, .. and moving towards

Crop Yields:
One team only has 2fpt from the city tile. So they are really stunning growth for more hammers.
The only possibility seems to be a worker, only they are using three hammers instead of three food like us. In that case I think it is save to assume they will loose out on 1gpt compared to us, since I do not believe there is an unimproved 0/3/1 tile(?)
So, good news.

Soldiers:
Not so revealing for now, as units are factored in as well as techs.

Land area:
Being creative, we are the only capital that has popped the second ring, hence 21000km^2 (no water tile)
The second civ also has no water tiles in their first ring (9000km^2) and is therefore not a seafaring one for now.

We know about the last civ, with only 3000km^2. Now this means they have only two land tiles in their first ring!!! If they don't start with Fishing, I would say, they are a bit screwed.

The remaining three civs own together 20 tiles (including 3 city tiles).
That means at least two of them have access to water tiles in their first ring as a (9000+9000+2000 combination is not possible with 3000 already being the worst value.)
I guess something like (7000+7000+6000) is a likely split which means that there are potentially four civs starting on the coast (or big fresh water lakes, although less likely with all those continents, I guess). This is quite useful to know, when it comes to Coastal Wonders. We have three industrious rivals, so at least one, but more likely at least two industrious civs start on the coast.

Population:
Not useful for now at all.

Approval Rate:
Not useful for now at all.

Life Expectancy:
With the massive health influx from our second ring we are well in the lead here. 10 health / (10health-1waste) = 90.
Our value for the time before the border pop would have been 6 health / (6health - 1waste) = 85.

In the early days it is easy to assess the other civs.
Since everybody suffers at least 1 waste from population (poors sods having at least 4 jungles or three flood plains in the first ring could suffer one more waste).
The only way this early to gather 87 years is by 7/8 meaning 7 health. We have +2 from the difficult level. Assuming the next best civ is the only expansive one we have it gets +2 from there as well. Leaves 3 health from either all forests (6-7 tiles) or 2 from river and 1 from forest (2-3 tiles). Further assuming for a worst case, that the expansive civ would not need to have settled on a river, they have quite some chopping potential already in their first ring.
Now the last civ with 71 years: This can only be calculated that early by 5/7. So someone already picks up one additional waste by either 4 jungles or 3 floodplains in the first ring. (or a combination of both). The uneven number of health (5) means again the presence of at least 2-3 forest tiles in the first ring. (assuming nobody would settle on a food resource)

So it seems we are doing pretty good in comparison in the early turns.

I will try to keep monitoring this screen.

All comments and thoughts are of course welcome.
I never did a in depth analysis of the demo screen before, so there can of course be errors on my conclusions.

mh

[ruff_hi]

Very nice detective work. I sometimes work a 3H tile when I am getting a fishing boat out. Thus zero growth for now, but a quick boost in my food very shortly.

[Zeviz]

Very nice analysis. The only thing I have to add is that it appears at least one other team is doing same thing as us (Worker first, working 3/0/1 tile.) It could be revealing to see when somebody jumps ahead in soldiers (building first warrior), or in population (capital growing).

[Kylearan]

Fantastic work, mostly harmless! :b:

Where is T-hawk, by the way? I hoped he would participate specifically for this kind of analysis. :D

-Kylearan

[T-hawk]

Analyzing single units of GNP from the demographics screen, thousands of years before civs contact each other, is a little bit deeper than even I usually go. :)

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 5:
Not much has changed:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0129.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0129.JPG)

The increase in land size suggests that at least two civs have settled in place and got their borders popped.
The second civ is listed with 17 tiles.

Interestingly, the civ whith only two workable land tiles did not get its borders popped which means they moved at least once into their current position.
(EDIT: Unless, of course, the poor fellows started on a three tile island. I assume we would have seen a complaint in the "Hanging Gardens" by now in that case.)
We will know just how bad they are doing next turn, when they get their second ring.

mh

[sunrise089]

Originally posted by T-hawk
Analyzing single units of GNP from the demographics screen, thousands of years before civs contact each other, is a little bit deeper than even I usually go. :)

So you're saying you've started to slip then? :lol:

[regoarrarr]

Originally posted by T-hawk
Analyzing single units of GNP from the demographics screen, thousands of years before civs contact each other, is a little bit deeper than even I usually go. :)

Well what else is there to do? Wait for TPTB to reload (again)?

[Zeviz]

Continuing the trend of over-analyzing minor details from boredom, I noticed that PAL and Banana scores grew from 31 to 37. Does it mean their cities grew, or they popped techs from huts? (What else could cause score growth at this point?)

[Zeviz]

Originally posted by regoarrarr


Well what else is there to do? Wait for TPTB to reload (again)?
lol

They took your advice. Next time tell them NOT to reload the game. :lol:

[Swiss Pauli]

Originally posted by Zeviz
Continuing the trend of over-analyzing minor details from boredom, I noticed that PAL and Banana scores grew from 31 to 37. Does it mean their cities grew, or they popped techs from huts? (What else could cause score growth at this point?)
If it's pop growth this should be on the demo screen, but I'm not bored enough to check myself :p

[mostly-harmless]

Spy update:
For turn 6 the demo screen looks like this:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0130.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0130.JPG)

Three changes to the last turn.
1st: Production
Someone really goes hammer happy here, with getting 5hpt. There is only one possibility for that to happen. As far as I know, there is no unimproved tile that gives 4hpt(?). So someone is working a 3hpt tile (forested plains hill, or even more worrying with all the industrious teams around a stone or marble on a plains hill) and has settled the capital on a plains hill as well for the extra 1hpt from the city tile.
Seeing that they changed from 4hpt to 5hpt just this turn and not the previous, means that they only just popped their border now, having the forested plains hill in their second ring. So the deliberately moved their settler onto the plains hill.
No extra food apart from the 2fpt from city tile, so no growth.
More importantly, no extra commerce either, unless it is a unlikely stone/marble on a plains hill next to a river, which gives a 0/3/1 tile!
Will be interesting to watch the Soldier Score, as this civ, if they go for warrior spamming (instead of the more viable option: worker) could churn out a warrior every 3 turns.

2nd: Land Area
Everybody has popped their second ring by now.
We have two civ (including us) who moved their settler first and then have 20 land tiles to work (no water tiles whatsoever).

There is an additional civ with 16 workable land tiles that settled in place. I tend to predict they are also not on an ocean. (gut feeling or they are at the head of a narrow inlet).

Then there are two civs with approximately 12-13 workable land tiles each. At least one of them settled in place. My feeling is, both civs are on the ocean / big fresh water lake.

And then there are the "poor sods" with only 5 (!) workable landtiles, who actually moved their settler on the first turn.
I really hope for the sake of the game, that they are swimming in seafood. I was hoping that they might be the ones who went hammer happy to churn out a workboat soonest (which would also mean no risk of an earlier warrior spammer), but there is no civ present with fishing as its starting tech. Poor sods!
(There is a small chance that they are either PAL or Banana and have just researched Fishing now. More on that further down the post.)

3rd: Soldiers
The soldier points in the early days are easily calculated.
This is for Turns 1-5:

Banana:
Mining - 2000
Warrior - 1000
-----------------
Total - 3000

PAL:
Wheel - 4000
Warrior - 1000
-----------------
Total - 5000

Rabbits:
Hunting - 2000
-----------------
Total - 2000

Imperio
Mining - 2000
Warrior - 1000
------------------
Total - 3000

Templars
Quecha - 1000
------------------
Total - 1000

RealmsBeyond
Hunting - 2000
Mining - 2000
------------------
Total - 4000

That fits the picture of turns 1-5:
Best Civ 5000 (PAL)
Worst Cic 1000 (Templars)
Civ average 2800 = (3000 Banana + 5000 PAL + 2000 Rabbits + 3000 Imperio + 1000 Templars)/5

In turn 6 no changes to the best and the worst, so no changes to PAL and Templars.
But the average has increased by 200.
That means the Sum of all opponents has increased by 200 x 5 =1000 soldier points.
Since PAL and Templars have not changed, one of the other three civ got it.
Further, it is not a (military important) tech popped from a hut, since techs give 2000 minimum.
The only way to increase your soldier points by 1000 (this early) is by gaining a warrior.
Either by a hut or more worrying by the feared warrior spammer.
Anyway, the early additional unit allows either Banana, Rabbits or Imperio to scout better than the other teams.

Increase in Points:
The increase in 6 points for the in game score can only be done by gaining a tech.
Either by research (Option 1) or by popping a hut (Option 2).

We know that no military relevant tech was gained, otherwise it would have shown up on the Soldiers Score.

Option 1:
Within 5-6 turns the following techs could be researched:
Fishing
Mysticism
(Mining - military relevant tech)
(Hunting - military relevant tech)

Fishing would made sense, if either of Banana or PAL would be the "poor sods" civ.
With three other civs (Rabbits, Imperio & Templars) already starting with Mysticism, it seems unlikely someone wants to catch up on the religion race. (but you never know).

Option 2:
If the tech was popped from a hut it could be anything except military relevant techs as all techs give 6 points from the in-game score.

(Overview of early military relevant techs, that they did not get:
Sailing, Hunting, Mining, Animal Husbandry,
Wheel, Alphabet, Metal Casting,
Mathematics, Archery
Bronze Working, Horseback Riding, Iron Working)

So, again some interesting developments.
This should again give something to read about in these early turns.
Imagine how many tribes / early civs must have died out by sheer boredom.

mh

Btw.
I use the following site to try to make sense of the demo screen:
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=163098

[darrelljs]

Great scott, it is amazing what you can deduce from the meager amount of information available, if you know what you are about :eek:. What if the 5H person got an event that gave 'em some food, they've grown, and are now working a couple of tiles? Could the extra population be where the 6 points came from? BTW, I think your scenarios is far more likely, just throwing out an alternative. This is more fun than the game itself will probably be ;).

Darrell

[mostly-harmless]

Increase in population would have been directly visible on the demo screen.
All cities are size 1 at the moment.

mh

[sunrise089]

I continue to be very impressed m_h. There is one more way to reach five hammers per turn however - settling on a stone or marble hill, which gives 3(!) hammers in the city tile, and then working anything else really. This play is so strong in MP that many players will move blind and risk having no food.

Also, lol at the power numbers suggesting the team with by far the most real power (Inca) are last in power. Weird system in the early game.

[mostly-harmless]

Originally posted by sunrise089
... There is one more way to reach five hammers per turn however - settling on a stone or marble hill, which gives 3(!) hammers in the city tile, and then working anything else really. ...

Oh! I did not know that. So that could mean 5hpt and still 1fpt excess.
With all those industrious civs out there, not having to spend worker turns to construct a quarry could give someone the edge when it comes to getting the early wonders up.

mh

[Sullla]

That IS impressive work, mostly_harmless! :b: I concur that the most troubling thing would be if someone is spamming warriors, in anticipation of an early rush. I guess we'll be able to keep an eye on that with the power rating.

I continue to be very impressed m_h. There is one more way to reach five hammers per turn however - settling on a stone or marble hill, which gives 3(!) hammers in the city tile, and then working anything else really. This play is so strong in MP that many players will move blind and risk having no food.

Also a possibility. Although this is a customized map, and any map designer who left stone/marble in the starting radius of any civ should be beaten to death. (That's extremely unbalancing, especially if an Industrious civ landed it.)

[Zeviz]

Very impressive work. :)

How much production does a warrior take? (If it took 6 turns to train it, was it necessarily trained by the guys going for max production?) It it was, somebody is planning a rush. If it wasn't, max production could be an imperialistic CIV training a worker.

[mostly-harmless]

Originally posted by Zeviz
How much production does a warrior take? (If it took 6 turns to train it, was it necessarily trained by the guys going for max production?)

A warrior costs 15h.
And you are right, it did not have to be necessarily the max production guys who trained it.
Like a proper intelligence agency I try to scare you with worst case scenarios. :D
Consider this: Apart from us, and the Rabbits everybody else already starts with a warrior. So the chances are good that somebody built a second one. Why? If you were into fast and peaceful scouting, surely a scout would be more helpful. Scouts however, do not count into soldier points.

From turn 7:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0131.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0131.JPG)

Again, one more warrior unit in the world. (Average soldier points rose from 3000 -> 3200). And again not for PAL and not for Templars either.
Unless they popped a warrior from a hut, it is not possible for a civ to produce two warriors in consecutive turns. Which means two different civs, gained a warrior each over the last two turns.
Assuming one is accounted for by the Rabbits (for protection, they started with a scout), either Imperio or Banana runs around with two warriors.
That leaves us as the only unprotected civ in the world.

Originally posted by Zeviz If it wasn't, max production could be an imperialistic CIV training a worker.
Doesn't imperialistic give only 50% for settler production? At least it says so in the civpedia.
The expansive trait gives 25% boost on workers. That would imply Imperio.
Say they did not settle on an extra hammer tile and had a forest tile in the first ring for altogether 3hpt. The 25% bonus does not do them any good in the first turns. Then they pop their borders, can work a 3hpt tile, therefore jump to 4hpt and get +1hpt from the expansive boost. I would assign that a high probability.
Thanks for pointing that out, Zeviz.

Also Rabbits gained a tech, as can be seen from the in-game score, but again no military relevant tech.
We have to look out for the first religions to fall. I guess one has to check the in-game log for the message, as they surely fade away after the first RB player has logged in?

I hope the game historian keeps track of the early moves for comparison. Would be interesting to see how far off the mark these conclusions are.

mh

[Zeviz]

So if Imperio is training an Expansive-powered worker, that would leave Rabbits and Banana as the two teams with Warriors. It would be pretty impressive if we deduced everybody's starting strategy from the Demographics screen. :)

[ruff_hi]

you should also look at the top 5 cities screen - one city is size 1, others are all size 1. 2 were founded in 4000BC, others founded in 3960BC. I also placed a possible city location sign up on the ice were all of those food resources are.

[mostly-harmless]

Made a screenshot of the demo screen and will post some info tomorrow.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Thanks Ruff for pointing out the Top 5 city screen.
Luckily it confirms what we already guessed about the founding dates.

For turn 8 the situation is as follows:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0137.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0137.JPG)

Also the current in game points are:
PAL 41 (previous turn 37)
Rabbits 37 (37)
Banana 37 (37)
Imperio 31 (31)
Templar 31 (31)
RealmsBeyond 31 (31)

PAL are the only ones with a score increase by 4.
This is consistent with gaining one additional pop point.
We can confirm this by looking at the Top5 city screen, where one city (founded in the initial turn) has size 2.
Also PAL as the leader in soldier points with 5000 up to the last turn, now gained 1000 additional points which are awarded if a city goes from size 1 to 2.
And finally the drop of the Approval rate from 83 to 71 is only possible with 5 happy faces & 2unhappy faces (size2).

Furthermore, we know that PAL was among the first to research their first tech. Also they have grown rather quickly which implies they are the ones with 5fpt from the beginning. Apart from food gaining events there is no other way to grow to size 2 in 8 turns as the 22food are needed for the pop growth.
If you recall the analysis of the Life Expectancy I did, evidence implied that one civ already picked up 2 unhealthy points at size 1 suggesting either jungles or floodplains or a combination of both.
Now the value for the worst civ life expectancy has changed from 71 to 62 (again the only way to get 62 with size 2 is by picking up 3unhealthines). PAL being the only civ that can be the cause are the ones with the increased unhealthiness.
My money is therefore on floodplains being worked since the beginning by PAL (additional unhealthiness, early tech, 3fpt tile for fast growth)
Now I am a bit puzzled, as to what PAL did with their second tile, as there is no increase in fpt suggesting they are working a 0/?/? tile. There is an improvement in hammers from 1hpt to 2hpt for the worst civ. Suggesting a 0/1/? tile. (1hpt from before the grothw would be consistent with a non-hill city tile & flood plains)
Funnily there is no change in the GNP numbers. But this can be due to rounding issues. (anyone know how the rounding for the rival average is done for GNP, MFG , Food?)
For example a 19-16-16-16-16 distribution would give an average of 16.6=17. This might have been the case prior to PAL growth.
And now we can have a situation up to 19-19-16-16-16 which also gives an average of 17.2=17.
So PAL works a 0/1/3 tile or a 0/1/2 tile. Suggestions? Gold on a desert tile maybe, which would be consistent with the presence of flood plains.
This analysis of course assumes they keep on working the floodplains.


Ok, enough of that.
The change in soldier points is clear. PAL as the best rival civ got up to 6000 by the growth. And the Templars increased their soldier points from 1000 to 2000 by getting another Quecha going.

Any comments are welcome.

mh

[regoarrarr]

I don't really have any constructive comments but I do want to say that I really enjoy these analyses

[mostly-harmless]

Thanks.
It certainly is more fascinating than watching a scout move three tiles in a week.
I hope it keeps peoples interest going for this game until it gets a bit more complex.

mh

[Kylearan]

Hi,

Originally posted by mostly-harmless
It certainly is more fascinating than watching a scout move three tiles in a week.
:b: :)

-Kylearan

[mostly-harmless]

I do have the screenshots for turn 9 but won't have time for an analysis.
I am also away til Friday, so if someone else could please provide the screenshots (demographics, top5 cities, ingame score) for the turns I am missing, to keep this thread going.
I normally try to do the screenshots as late as possible in the turn to give teams time to assign tiles and stuff.

Thanks.

mh

[Sullla]

So did this fall by the wayside? :( I'm sure it was a lot of work, but it was far more interesting metagaming the Demogame than actually playing the darn thing!

I don't mind logging on and taking Demographics screenshots if needed. I'm not qualified to do the analysis, however; mostly_harmless was much better at that.

[mostly-harmless]

I have the data from turn 9.
Then there is a gap of around 3-4 turns, since I went on a business trip.
If I find the time I will update the thread.
But it becomes increasingly more difficult to derive what has happened as the game progresses.
Nevertheless, I will see what I can get.
Tonight, Germany plays in the European Championship, so don't hold your breath.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

OK,
I will try to make some sense of the sparse data I have.
Anyone providing screenies for turns 10-13???

Continuing with Turn9, which is easy as nothing happened.
Same situation as Turn8.
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_T9_Civ4ScreenShot0140.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_T9_Civ4ScreenShot0140.JPG)

*******************************************************************

The next info I have is from the civstat-log for Turn11 stating that Templars increased their in game points to 37, a raise by 6, implying a tech gained. We know from the event-log that Buddhism was founded that turn, so that is in character with the Templars being religious crazy.
For some reason they did not choose to found Christianity, as religion choosing is activated.
A size 1 capital for the Templars researching either Polytheism (143beakers) or Meditation (114beakers) in 11 turns. Since it would have shown up in the GNP graph if they were getting 13bpt and that would mean working a ?/?/4 tile, which is unlikely (even impossible?) it is safe to assume the Templars went for Meditation .

*******************************************************************

Civstat-log for Turn12 finally sees us getting AH and 6 ingame points increase to 37.
TeamBanana grows to size 2 (ingame score increase 37-41) and PAL gets another tech (ingame score increase 41-47).
PAL which we know has settled in place gains a second tech within 6 turns either by research (helped along with having an additional tile to work since turn8) or by a hut.

*******************************************************************

Civstat-log for Turn13 shows no increase in ingame points, so nothing can be derived from that.

*******************************************************************

For Turn14 I have the demographics screen again.
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_T14_Civ4ScreenShot0147.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_T14_Civ4ScreenShot0147.JPG)
The Rabbits got their second tech in. (ingame score 37-43),
Imperio still sits at 31 points!
Ok, we have already assumed that Imperio is working on a Expansive powered worker, hence the non-growth. We now can assume that they at least get 9bpt if not 10bpt. Further assuming they have not settled in place but lost a turn on moving the settler, they still are going for an expensive first tech like we do. At least a tech that costs 118beakers.
If they settled in place and got a good commerce tile to work (?/?/2) they could spend 11bpt since 14 turns, bringing them up 154beakers.

Going back to the demo screen. Both PAL and Banana have a second tile they can work. We see an increase in GNP for the best (19->23) and the worst rival (16->18), also we see an increase in Food Production for the best rival (5->7) and worst rival (2->5) and we see a decrease in production for the best rival (5->4) and the worst rival (2->1). This is comparing turn 9 (only PAL at size 2) with Turn14 (PAL & Banana at size 2).
Now it does not necessarily mean that those three observations can only be assigned to PAL and Banana, in fact the food production score for the worst rival is definitely not either of them. this is just the one civ that worked a no food tile changing to a 3 food tile after having built whatever they have built.
But still it can be seen, that at least one of either PAL or Banana further emphasizes food. 7fpt at size 2 is still 3fpt in excess. Probably they have two good health resources available or have netted fish already.

Soldier points next.
Templars still sit at 2000 points with their two Quechas and Meditation as a military-irrelevant tech.
There has been a lot of increase in the turns 9-14.
Banana got at 1000 points from pop increase, I assume PAL got additional 2000 points from a tech like Hunting or Mining and of course teams will go on building warriors.
The soldier points become harder to decipher as there are so many options available.

*******************************************************************

Turn15, again only the civstat-log, revealing that Templars increase ingame points from 37 to 41 revealing a growth to size 2.

*******************************************************************

Turn16 finally sees Imperio jumping to 37 ingame points. They spend 15-16 turns (depending on whether they moved the settler) on their first tech. Even with working a crappy 0 commerce tile, they would still have amassed 15turns x 9bpt = 135beakers. That's a worst case scenario (for them). In an ideal Imperio world they settled in place, found a nice ?/?/2 tile to work and amassed 16turns x 11bpt = 176beakers.
Now, Imperio started with Myst & Mining. The only techs that fall into the range of 135 - 176beakers are either
Polytheism 143beakers - but this is not it, since no religion was founded this turn.(At least it did not show up in the event log, although one Imperio player has logged in already)
or Bronze Working with 171beakers. I cannot see any other option. So my view on the Imperio strategy is getting out a expansive worker, beelining Bronze Working and hoping for copper in the BFC.
This is confirmed by a quick look at the demoscreen, revealing 11000 soldier points, quite a jump. BW gives exactly 8000 points, this together with the 3000 points Imperio started with (1 warrior & Mining) and voila!
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_T16_Civ4ScreenShot0151.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_T16_Civ4ScreenShot0151.JPG)

Furthermore the Rabbits grow their capital to size 2.
And will you please look at the food production number. 10fpt!!! at size 2. What is that? Two working boats out there already? Remember that there is that team with loads of water tiles surrounding them. We will soon see, who that is as 6 excess food will lead to the next pop increase in around 5-6 turns.


Ok, that's it.
Quick summary:
PAL, off to a good start, settled in place, most likely with lots of land tiles. Got themselves two early techs. Were first to grow with a very fast pace.

Banana, moved their settler, got one tech researched and have grown to size 2 pretty fast. I am almost convinced that they are the ones with the seafood start (only 5 land tiles to work!)

Rabbits, have researched two techs already and have recently grown to size 2.

Templars, founder of Buddhism, recently grown to size 2.

Imperio, on a rush footing I believe, just researched BW and have gone for a expansive fueled worker. If they have copper in the BFC, we don't want to run into their units any time soon.

Enjoy,
mh.

@sooooo: can you please make a screenshot of the ingame score table, the religion screen, the top 5 cities and the demographics table, each time you finish a turn? As a back up. Many thanks.

[Sullla]

Absolutely outstanding! http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Smilies/goodjob.gif http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Smilies/goodjob.gif http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Smilies/goodjob.gif We have a relatively clear picture of what all the other teams are doing, solely from the Demographics screen! I nominate mostly_harmless as permanent head of the Ministry of Truth. ;)

I'll see what I can do about archiving some screenshots as well, just in case. Let me know if you need any other help.

[mostly-harmless]

Turn17:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_T17_Civ4ScreenShot0116.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_T17_Civ4ScreenShot0116.JPG)

After the revelation that Imperio went BW last turn, we see for turn 17 another significant increase in soldier points.
Now, the civstat-log does not state an ingame point increase for any of the teams, nevertheless, after logging in, you will notice the Rabbits now leading the score with 53 ingame points. An increase of 6 points, meaning a tech gained.
The only way for this to happen is that they gained the tech not by research but by other means, speak Goodie Hut.
Lets try to find out what they popped.
The increase of all rival's soldier points from turn 16 (33000) to turn 17 (42000) is 9000. We can see that the worst rival increased soldier points from 3000 to 4000 by building a warrior. So there are 8000 points left. No other team gained a tech, no team increased population. So there are two options (assuming no team has managed to built a 60h barracks in 17 turns):

Option 1:
2 warriors were built, each by a different team accounting for 2000 points together leaving 6000 points for the Rabbit tech.
6000points techs are: Mathematics & Archery.
This option is possible, if Rabbits had 8000points before, which I doubt. My feeling is they had 6000 points before from:
starting tech Hunting (2000) + warrior built (1000) + size 2 capital (1000) + Mining researched (2000)

So that leaves us with Option 2:
The 8000 point increase is solely accounted for by the Rabbit tech.
Possibilities are:
Bronze Working or Machinery.

I assign the option that the Rabbits just popped BW from a hut a very high probability.
Luckily they do not have a worker yet.

There is another small change in the average rival life expectancy from 70 to 71.
It implies that the number of healthy faces has increased slightly or the number of unhealthy faces has decreased, either way most likely by 1. Imperio's worker could not have connected any resources yet, as they only know mining. Nobody knows how to cut down jungle, nor do they have the necessary tech for it. That just leaves a forest grown in a rivals BFC.
Of course you could connect sea food resources to increase health points, but we do not see a change in the food production figures.

mh

ps.: We can always check my assumption regarding BW by going into the "Hanging Gardens" public posting thread and ask "Alright. Who left that axe next to the door?" And then check who gets jumpy. :-)

[regoarrarr]

I saw in my game last night (this was Warlords) that after I mined a gold on a river (my capital was also on a river) that it connected, even before I roaded it.

Could that be possible for the increase in happiness (if Imperio's worker mined a gold silver or gems)?

Or did I imagine that it's possible

[mostly-harmless]

Resources on a river do not need to be roaded. The river automatically connects them to the trade network.
I noticed you are talking happy resource and spotted a typing mistake.
I was talking health resources.

mh

[Zeviz]

Mh, the amount of information you've gained from demographics screen alone is simply amazing. Thanks to you, we have a clear picture of which of our rivals present an immediate threat, which will allow us to decide how much to invest into military, which will let us grow as quickly as possible, leading to our victory. :)

[mostly-harmless]

That's the spirit!
"Domination through Information!!
mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn18 (early):

I say "early" since not many teams have logged in yet.
Anyway here is the demoscreen.
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_T18_Civ4ScreenShot0130.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_T18_Civ4ScreenShot0130.JPG)

Apart from the food production of the best rival (drop from 10 to 9) nothing has changed. Can't explain that really. Could be it is not the same civ and teams have reshuffled their worked tiles.

No ingame score was increased at the beginning of the turn.
However, PAL logged in and got an increase to 53, implying a tech gained, further implying it must be obtained by other means than research -> a hut. However, since no increase of soldier points was listed PAL did not get a military relevant tech.

Meeting our first neighbors reveals so more infos.
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_T18_Civ4ScreenShot0129.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_T18_Civ4ScreenShot0129.JPG)
From the victory condition screen, we know they named their capital Jerusalem, which is of no strategic importance, but still makes we wonder why they went ahead and founded Buddhism instead of Christianity.
Furthermore we can see that they are ahead of us in culture, which is consistent with them owning a holy city, giving 5cpt + the 2cpt from the palace. Templars will pop their 3rd ring in 5 turns and become leader inland size for a short while (unitl we pop our 3rd ring in 8 turns.) The currently listed 71 culture points actually imply two more things.
We know they founded Buddhism on turn 11, giving them 7cpt from turn12 on. That means their current culture is calculated by 11turns x 2cpt (=22c) + 7 turns x 7cpt (=49c) = 71c.
So they did settle on the first turn, otherwise they would have lost 2c and they have not switched to Buddhism yet, as a turn in anarchy would have cost them 7c. I hope that makes sense.

From another figure on that screen you can see why we will overtake them in landsize again.
Domination limit shows we own 1.44% with our 21 land tiles. Templars only own 1.00% with their BFC meaning they have approx. 15 land tiles including the city tile. With that river there, they most likely settled next to a river mouth on the coast.
This has the potential for international trade route with them =religion spread via the coastline.

Finally one more info, this time via the espionage points. It took me a little while to find the figures, as we have not officially met them, so the espionage ratio is not revealed when hovering over the score list. But the ratio is displayed on the Foreign Realtionship screen and says 4/4.
Assuming they did not increase their espionage spending to 40% or mess around with the points allocation (nice idea actually), the 4 espionage points they spent towards us this turn is all they have, implying they have not met anyone else. And that with predicted 2 scouting Quechas (the 3rd assumed on city garrison).

I will update the Templars thread.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

I need some help from more experienced player now. How is the research bonus accounted for that we get from knowing other teams?
Will the total amount of beakers a tech costs be reduced or do we get a modifier on our bpt output if researching a tech someone else knows already?
We might be able to tell what techs were researched by our neighbours that way pre-alphabet.

For example if we were to switch research towards Meditation, which is already known to the Templars, how can we see the bonus that is awarded?

mh

[Sullla]

Here's the official explanation: (http://www.civfanatics.com/civ4/strategy/tech_research.php)

One important note.
FLOOR means rounding DOWN to the nearest integer AND it has higher precedence than all other operators EXCEPT FOR parentheses. You will see it used a lot in the article.

The basics (of generating beakers)
1) Each city generates a raw amount of commerce via the squares that are being worked and the trade routes in the cities.

2) This commerce is in turn translated into beakers (research), coins (gold), or notes (culture) via the technology and culture sliders. The actual amount of beakers and notes are gained by using the specified slider rate in the following equation:

FLOOR (total commerce * the specified slider rate).

The remainder is then given in gold.

So, yes, you WILL get AT LEAST one gold from each city that has a commerce that is not a multiple of 10, if your science or culture is not 100%.

3) Each city then takes each amount and adds in any additional sources of research, gold, or culture (via shrines, production processes, and specialists, mainly).

4) Each city then multiplies it by whatever modifiers it has depending on what buildings it has built (e.g., beakers are multiplied by 1.25 if it has a library, gold is multiplied by 1.5 if it has a bank, etc.). NOTE: multipliers are ADDITIVE (i.e., if you have a library and university, your beakers will be multiplied by 1.5 (1 + 0.25 + 0.25) NOT 1.5625 (1 * 1.25 * 1.25)).

5) The beaker totals are then added up across the cities and the sum is your base beaker total.

Technology Costs
To calculate the technology cost of a technology:

1) Take the base cost of the technology. (This can be found for each technology in Assets\XML\Technologies\CIV4TechInfo.xml).

2) Take the Difficulty Modifier and add 0.5 * the Number of teammates you have to it. (The difficulty modifier can be found in Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4HandicapInfo.xml.)

3) Multiply 1) by 2) and take the FLOOR of the product.

4) Multiply 3) by the Map Modifier and take the FLOOR of the product. (The map modifier can be found in Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4WorldInfo.xml.)

5) Multiply 4) by the Speed Modifier and take the FLOOR of the product. This generates the actual cost of the technology. (The speed modifier can be found in Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4GameSpeedInfo.xml.)

Thus the formula to calculate a Technology's cost is:

Technology Cost = FLOOR (FLOOR (FLOOR (Base Cost * (Difficulty Modifier + 0.5 * # of teammates)) * Map Modifier) * Speed Modifier)


Applying the Research to the Technology
The amount of beakers applied to the technology cost is dependant upon the number of civilizations which know the tech and the number of requirements you have fulfilled for the technology.

Calculating the Known Civilizations w/ Tech modifier
1) Multiply 0.30 by the number of KNOWN, LIVING civilizations, who have the tech.

2) Divide by the number of civilizations which STARTED on the map and ROUND DOWN to the hundredth place (0.01) of the quotient.

3) Add 2) to 1

Tech Known by Civilizations modifier = 1 + RDDW (0.30 * # known Civs who have the tech / # of Civs who started the game


Calculating the Prerequisites modifier
1) Start with 1. If the technology does NOT have a minimum requirement (i.e., the starting techs = Fishing, The Wheel, Agriculture, Hunting, Mysticism, Mining), then use 1 AS the modifier.

2) Add 0.2 to 1) if a Technology has a MINIMUM Requirement that the player has met. Note: Even if a tech has MANY MANDATORY PREREQUISITES, it will still only give you a boost of 1.2 because you MUST have all those prerequisites to research the tech. (IOW, the minimum requirement IS all of those prerequisites.)

3) Add 0.2 to 2) for EACH ADDITIONAL OPTIONAL Prerequisite that the player has met.

Requirements modifier = 1 + (0.2 * MINIMUM Req. met) + (0.2 * # of Optional Prereq. met)

Calculating the Actual Amount of Beakers Generated Toward a Tech
To calculate the amount of beakers which you generate toward the technology:

1) Take the total sum of beakers generated by all your cities (the result from the basics part).

2) Add 1 to it if you have a city.

3) Multiply 2) by the Known Civilizations w/ Tech modifier and take the FLOOR of the product.

4) Multiply 3) by Prerequisites modifier and take the FLOOR of the product.

The formula to calculate the amount of beakers applied to your technology is:

Beakers applied to Technology = FLOOR (FLOOR ((Total Base Beakers + 1) * KCwT modifier) * Prerequisites modifier)



An Example:
I always seem to understand better with an example, so here's a basic one.

Say you want to research Code of Laws which has a base cost of 350 beakers, the mandatory requirement of Writing and the optional (meaning you must research one of them) requirements of (Priesthood or Currency).

You know Writing and Priesthood

You produce 37 net beakers per turn and you have met 3 other civilizations who know it out of 7 who started the map.

You started on a standard map (1.4 modifier) at the monarch difficulty level (1.15 modifier) at epic game speed (1.5 modifier) and have 1 teammate.

Your cost would be:

FLOOR (FLOOR (FLOOR (350 * (1.15 + 0.5 * 1)) * 1.4) * 1.5)

FLOOR (350 * 1.65) = 577
FLOOR (577 * 1.4) = 807
FLOOR (807 * 1.5) = 1210

Total cost = 1210

The amount of beakers applied to code of laws would be:

FLOOR (FLOOR ((37 + 1) * (1 + RDDW (0.30 * 3 / 7))) * (1 + 0.2 + (0.2 * 0))

1 + RDDW (0.30 * 3 / 7) = 1.12
FLOOR (38 * 1.12) = 42
FLOOR (42 * 1.2) = 50

Beakers applied to Code of Laws/turn = 50

Note that having Writing AND Priesthood only gives you a bonus modifier of 1.2 because you must have at LEAST Writing PLUS one of the optional prerequisites to be able to research Code of Laws. If you also had Currency, then the modifier would be 1.4.

Overflow
The overflow is calculated by the modifiers from the PREVIOUS Technology. Therefore, if you finished researching Writing this turn, and you had all THREE optional requirements, the overflow beakers which applied to your next technology would be equal to however many you had left USING THE MODIFIERS FOR Writing after finishing Writing. So, your Requirements modifier would be 1.6 (1.2 * 3). So, you could conceivable get a significant boost toward your next tech OVER WHAT YOU SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN if you have a lot of overflow.

* * * * *

So there you go. If someone is willing to run the numbers, by all means be my guest.

[ruff_hi]

I think that the bonus beakers are added to our beakers per turn during the 'end of turn' processing. Aren't there two bonuses ... 1) knowledge of pre-reqs and 2) other teams knowing the tech? Edit: yes as per Sullla above.

removed my simple example, using Sullla's example above ... You can see the 38 (37 from city, 1 for free) beakers that we are putting out. You can only see the actual beakers added to the tech (50) after you have hit end of turn and the 'end of turn' processes are complete.

I got burnt by this (magic beaker bonuses) in our SGOTM7 game and wasted 1.5 turns of research waiting for a GScientist to pop.

Edit after reading Sullla's post: Is the Technology's cost also displayed in-game by hovering over the tech?

[Sullla]

Ruff, the technology's cost is displayed in-game by hovering over it on the tech screen, BUT that number doesn't factor in the "bonus beakers" we were just discussing. I'm looking in the Demogame right now, and it easily confirms this:

The Wheel and Agriculture techs both have the same base cost (60, in the XML). We know that the Templars have Agriculture, since they started with it, and don't have The Wheel (unless they popped it from a hut). The cost to research displays as exactly the same on the tech screen, 85 beakers for each. I believe that we would get more beakers from research Agriculture, however, based on the way the tech engine works.

Let me try to do a sample calculation, using those same two techs (The Wheel and Agriculture):

Base cost = 60
Multiply by difficulty modifier (1.10 for Prince) = 66
Multiply by map modifier (1.3 for Standard) = 85
Multiply by game speed (1 for Normal) = 85

Which is exactly what the game says, yay! :D This basically confirms that knowing other civs does not lower the tech COST. What it does (as predicted) is increase the bonus beakers added for researching known techs. Let's try that calculation now:

Total base beakers (10) + 1* = 11
Known Civs modifier = (.3 * 1) / 6 + 1 = 1.05
FLOOR (11 * 1.05) = FLOOR (11.55) = 11
Multiply by prerequisites modifier (none) = 11 * 1 = 11

*Why the +1? You are always guaranteed to get at least one beaker each turn, even with no science invested.

So right now, there is no discernible benefit from knowing the Templars in researching Agriculture over The Wheel. The result is still 11 beakers/turn in both cases. We must either meet another civ or (more likely) increase our own total beaker output to see a benefit.

OK, hope that makes sense. I feel as though I've got a much better handle on the math from running a couple of examples. At the very least, we know that there's no benefit to researching techs the Templars already know until we hit 20 beaker/turn. :)

[ruff_hi]

Originally posted by Sullla
Multiply by game speed (1 for Normal) = 85 Which is exactly what the game says, yay!Good to know. My bet is that the bonus (either one) is not displayed in the hover but only added to the beakers added to the tech during the 'end of turn' processing.

So right now, there is no discernible benefit from knowing the Templars in researching Agriculture over The Wheel.Guess this is the upshot! No bonus for knowing these guys (yet).

At the very least, we know that there's no benefit to researching techs the Templars already know until we hit 20 beaker/turn. :) Well, actually ... 19 per turn plus the free beaker :D

[mostly-harmless]

Alright, thanks guys for clearing that up. :b:
So it does not amount to much gain as far as the Cloak & Dagger department is concerned. And it will become obsolete once we know Alphabet.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

I have reached a point, where I cannot make much sense out of the data available without digging deep.

I missed the screenshots for turn 19 and only got the civstat log indicating PAL ingame points rise by 4, implying they have now grown to size 3!

Then turn 20 sees a lot of in-game score rises, namely:
PAL (again) from 57 to 65.
Templars from 41 to 52.
Banana from 41 to 51.

The jumps are 8, 11 & 10.
Very odd numbers, there is a pop increase (score jump = 4) in there somewhere, there might be a tech gained (score jump = 6) in there somewhere. However, neither explains the observed jumps.

So I tested a bit and noticed that with the new patch the score increase for growing your city now varies between 4 and 5 points. Ugh! Why? Firaxis read this thread or what?
Furthermore in my test game I got rewarded 16! points on turn 20 for "land" without anything changing. Another 14 points were rewarded for land on turn 24, again with no apparent change.

I cannot explain the mechanics behind those land score jumps.
So unless someone knows exactly how it works, I have reached the point, where I cannot determine anything reliable from the in-game score anymore. They also might have changed how the demographics are calculated (soldier points?). Who knows.

With this source of info gone, I will still keep looking around, but don't expect an update each turn.

I hope that some of the predictions will turn out to be correct and will do their their bit helping us to survive the early turns.

I also gather from the feedback that people enjoyed the analysis and helped them through the "boring" scout moving.

Now we have met the first neighbor and things will get more excited on that front.

mh

[Kylearan]

Hi,

Originally posted by mostly-harmless Furthermore in my test game I got rewarded 16! points on turn 20 for "land" without anything changing. Another 14 points were rewarded for land on turn 24, again with no apparent change.
I seem to remember that if you acquire new tiles (by border expansion, for example), they register for score only after 20 turns, i.e. you have to keep those tiles for 20 turns for them to affect score. My memory could be wrong on this, though...

-Kylearan

[sunrise089]

Originally posted by Kylearan
Hi,


I seem to remember that if you acquire new tiles (by border expansion, for example), they register for score only after 20 turns, i.e. you have to keep those tiles for 20 turns for them to affect score. My memory could be wrong on this, though...

-Kylearan

This is correct. It's one of the few mechanics especially crafted for MP play. It's there to make sure no team dominates the land score by settling multiple undefended culture bombs on the last turn when they can no longer be attacked.

[mostly-harmless]

So, does anyone know how it is calculated exactly?

mh

[sooooo]

The Templars' score has increased to 64 halfway through the turn. Getting something from a hut I assume?

[mostly-harmless]

That seems correct.

I still try to make sense of the land points awarded.
We got 12 points for owning 9 tiles for 20 turns. Will have to run more tests here.

Furthermore I noticed that the exact amount of land tiles on the map is shown when hovering over the score. It is 1454tiles for this game. Domination is achieved when owning 931 tiles.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Alright,
I will continue the analysis under a few assumptions.
It seems that the points awarded for owning land tiles for 20 turns are linked by a factor to the overall land tiles available.
For our particular map we got 1454 landtiles in the world. That somehow leads to a factor of 1.333. So for our 9 tiles from the inner circle, that we owned for the last 20 turns (we moved the settler one turn, hence the delay) we got awarded 12 points in the land category on turn 21.

Furthermore I will assume that an increase in pop will give 4 points, unless it is clear from other sources, that it is not the case.

So lets look again at Turn 20 and try to make some sense of the point increases there:

PAL from 57 to 65.
Templars from 41 to 52.
Banana from 41 to 51.

PAL first. We know they settled in place so are entitled to a gain in land score on turn 20. Their increase of 8 points implies 6 land tiles in their initial 3x3 square. A coastal start or a freshwater lake.

Templars are the other civ that settled on the spot. An increase in 11 points suggests 8 landtiles in the 3x3 square. Another coastal start or just an inland lake. We already knew that but are happy the recent evidence confirms it.

Now Banana. They tried to misguide our analysts by making a big jump in points on the same turn as the other two civs. However we know only two civs settled in place, so Banana is not yet eligible for land points. Their increase in points (10) is accounted for by growing one size (now size 3) and gaining a tech!

Here is the demo screen from Turn 20.
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0140.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0140.JPG)
Of interest is the food production of 13fpt. That is for a size 3 city 7fpt in excess. Amazing potential for whipping. Either for Banana or PAL.
Furthermore we see an overall increase in soldier points of all rivals from 42000 (turn18) to 54000 (turn20). We saw only one tech gained in that period, by Banana. Keep in mind that an increase from size 2 to 3 does not give you soldier points. So we are looking at a few warriors being built (possibly an archer as well by now?) and a high ranking military relevant tech gained by Banana.
Now what would you research with a city spot that gives you only 6 land tiles to work but plenty of seafood? First of all Fishing, which is cheap and is most likely what they got in turn 6. Then churning out workboats and going for an expensive second tech, finally ready on turn 20 (Banana being China start the game with Mining). I will stick my somewhat questionable reputation as Minister of Truth on the prediction that Banana just landed Bronze Working.

So they align themselves with Imperio, which beelined BW right from the start and Rabbits, which got lucky and popped it.

Thats it for turn 20.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Analysis for Turn 21.

First of all the ingame points.
The following changes are observed:
RealmsBeyond 37 to 49
Templars 52 to 58 (and later in the turn to 64)
Rabbits 53 to 61
Banana 51 to 55
Imperio 37 to 53

Lets start with us.
We got a all land start so own 9 land tiles for 20 turns (moved the settler on the first turn). With the factor of 1.333 we get 12 points.

Templars received their land score last turn, so the increase in points is all tech. First of all they researched their 2nd tech. Expensive but nothing military relevant though.
The they go lucky and popped something from a hut. This time a military relevant tech, which I can see from having the screenshots of the demo screen before and after they went from 58 to 64. From the increase in soldier points they popped either one of: Sailing, Hunting, Mining, Animal Husbandry

The Rabbits received land score by 8 which equals 6 land tiles in their 3x3 square. Another coastal start.

Banana are finally confirmed as the initial "poor sods" with moving their settler into a spot that gives only 2 land tiles in the initial 3x3 square! (3 land tiles incl. city tile = 4 ingame points)

Imperio made quite a jump. 16 ingame points. We know from earlier analysis that there is one more civ out there that has no water tiles in their BFC. IMperio is that civ. So they get, like us, 12 points for the 9 initial land tiles. That leaves 4 more points which they gained from growing one size.
As Imperio did the same as we, with going worker first, their earlier pop growth means they got a better food tile to work. However, they have no worker tech available to improve food tiles at the moment. Their worker is probably busy mining copper!

Here is the demoscreen from after Templars popped their tech from a hut:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0153.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0153.JPG)

Slight increase in soldier points accounted for by Templar popping a 2000sp tech from a hut and Imperio growing to size2.

Here is the Top5 cities list:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0152.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0152.JPG)

That is:
1. PAL
2. Banana
3. Templars
4.&5. Imperio & Rabbits
6. RB

Enjoy.

mh

[Zeviz]

Thanks for continuing this analysis.

I am glad we aren't on the same continent with Imperio. :)

[mostly-harmless]

We cannot be sure of that. We have 2 old world landmasses. But the game was created with 7 civs. So the initial split of 3-4 could now be either 3-3 or 2-4. In the first case we are on a continent with Templars and either PAL or Rabbits. In the second case we are on a continent with Templars, either PAL or Rabbits and one more civ.

The second case also means that the other continent is shared only by 2 civs.

mh

[Sullla]

That's true, but this WAS a customized map. If the map creator left a 4/2 split in number of civs on each island... well, let's just say that the scenario design would leave a lot to be desired. A lot.

One other question:

As Imperio did the same as we, with going worker first, their earlier pop growth means they got a better food tile to work. However, they have no worker tech available to improve food tiles at the moment. Their worker is probably busy mining copper!

How is this even possible? We worked a 3 food tile (grassland cows) every turn not building a worker. There are no unimproved tiles that produce 4 food - right?

Oh wait - Imperio is Expansive. That means they built the worker 25% faster, thus had a few extra turns to grow to size 2. Whew! Worried for a moment there. :D

I do think that a lot of the other starting positions were better than ours. Not popping any techs from huts hasn't exactly helped either... Of course, if we turn out to have copper in the starting ring, any such complaints would instantly disappear.

[mostly-harmless]

You are of course right, it was their expansive trait, that let them finish their worker earlier and get the growth earlier.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Can anyone make sense of this thread?
http://apolyton.net/forums//showthread.php?s=&threadid=178450

mh

[sooooo]

Originally posted by mostly-harmless
Can anyone make sense of this thread?
http://apolyton.net/forums//showthread.php?s=&threadid=178450

mh

They are just having fun, no real info there.

[sooooo]

Turn 22 demographics and top 5 cities:

http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/2825/turn22demographicsbs0.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/4632/top5citiesls3.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 22:
Thanks soooo for the info.
Not much news here. A few tiles reshuffled.
One warrior built or popped.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn23
Imperio gained a tech. (from the soldier points increase of 2000 I can say it is either Hunting or Animal Husbandry.
Since we know Imperio has a non-coastal start we can rule out Sailing.)

Templars have grown to size 3.
We have grown.
That explains the ingame scores.

Furthermore we have witnessed that Jerusalem (Templars capital) has popped its third ring due to the additional 5cpt from being a holy city. That gave them altogether 30 landtiles, leading that score.
The maximum landtiles for three rings is 37 (like for us).
So we can roughly estimate the shape of the coast Jerusalem is sitting on.
This is a first estimate of the Templars land surrounding Jerusalem.

x - city
o - landtiles within cultural borders
~ - watertiles within cultural borders
. - landtiles

..ooo
.ooooo
ooooooo
oooxooo
oooo~~~
.oo~~~
..oo~

For the records the demographics screen.
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0161.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0161.JPG)

mh

[mostly-harmless]

And Turn24 with major news.
From the initial ingame scores we can see that:
PAL has grown to size 4 already and has gained a tech.
Rabbits have gained a tech
RB gets 16 points awarded for owning the second ring for 20 turns (12 tiles x 1.33333).

However, we see a drop in PALs ingame score from 76 to 67 after they logged in.
Now what happened there. -9 points is exactly the loss of 2 pop points (remember they now count either 4 or 5 with the patch). This is confirmed from the Top5 cities screen where PALs capital is now back to size 2.
So they whipped their capital for 2 pop points.
That implies PAL knows Bronze Working and has already spent a turn of anarchy to swap to Slavery.
What puzzles me a bit is the fact that they have not worked on a settler, because they have just grown to size 4.

Did they emergency whip a military unit? Or maybe they put some hammers into a settler already, decided to grow first and then switched back to the settler and whipped him?

We also see a massive increase in soldier points by 10000!
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0168.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0168.JPG)
So at least one of the two techs gained by PAL and Rabbits this turn must have been military relevant, and worth quite a lot. Horseback Riding and Iron Working are both 10000 points techs. I assume HBR is out for being to expensive for turn 24, right? I also think the 200beakers for IW are not possible that early. Both team s do not have a worker yet to improve tiles.
So it is more likely both teams got a relevant tech summing up to 10000. For example Archery(6000) & The Wheel(4000).

Input from our pro player regarding the whipping strategy is welcome.

mh

[sunrise089]

Iron Working and HBR are both "pop-able" from huts, right?

[sooooo]

Yes it is not too early to pop either of those techs.

[mostly-harmless]

Correct, but both techs were gained by research, since the ingame score was awarded at turn start. Popped techs will give an ingame score rise when the players are logged in and move the scouts. You can follow that in the civstat log file.
mh

[Sullla]

Here's a question I have for the Cloak and Dagger group. On the Demographics screen, you can see that we are #3 in land area. Our capital is also listed as #3 in terms of culture on the top 5 cities screen (makes sense). We know that the Templars are #1, since they founded a religion. My question is this: who could possibly be ahead of us, and reached #2 status? We're the only Creative civ in the game. Only one religion has been founded, and no wonders have been built as yet... right? How could any other capital city have more culture than our Creative one at this point in the game?

I've been puzzling over this, and I'm very curious as to what's going on out there.

[sunrise089]

I didn't think the Top 5 cities screen was only determined by cultural output...is there another view I'm not familiar with?

[mostly-harmless]

I was also under the impression, that the Top 5 cities are not determined by culture alone, but rather by size in the early years.
This is evident when you look at the Top 5 cities screen from turn 21, where we are actually last with our size 1 city.

I cannot see a way that another city is ahead of us in culture at this time apart from the Templars.

mh

[Sullla]

OK, well even if I'm wrong about the top five cities list, we ARE #3 in land area. How can someone else be ranked #2, between us and the Templars? We're completely landlocked, so we should be tied for #2. No one else, other than the Templars, can have reached 100 culture yet, right?

Still confused. :confused:

EDIT: You guys are correct about the formula for the top 5 cities. Here's what I found:

It's in Python. CvInfoScreen.py:

iTotalCityValue = ((pCity.getCulture() / 5) + (pCity.getFoodRate() + pCity.getProductionRate() \
+ pCity.calculateGoldRate())) * pCity.getPopulation()

In case it would ever prove useful to us... :)

[mostly-harmless]

@ Sullla: I am no sure the demographics ranking recognizes a tie.
After all look at the approval rate where we have 71%, the best rival has 71% and we are listed 3rd.

Anyway the current land tile ranking is as follows:
1. Templars = 30
2. Imperio = 21
2. RB = 21
4. Rabbits = 14
5. PAL = 13
6. Banana = 6

We will take the lead in land area in a couple of turns jumping to 37.

mh

EDIT: corrected PAls and Rabbits land, after additional info has become available.

[Sullla]

OK, that's a relief. Thanks for pointing that out, mostly_harmless. I wonder how the Demographics screen breaks ties anyway (?) Won't matter once we get outside the early stages of the game, since ties will become real rarities.

[mostly-harmless]

Turn25

Two teams increase their ingame score.
PAL & Templars gain points for owning their second ring (7 & 9 tiles) for 20 turns. These are the only ones for this turn, as they settled in place, whereas everybody else moved and will get their points awarded later (except for cultural RB of course).

Apart from that nothing changed initially.
However our analyst spotted an ingame score decrease by 4 for Banana after they logged in.
A sure sign they whipped their capital.
Again also implying that they know BW (which we noticed already in turn 20) and have swapped to Slavery.

So their capital is back to size 2.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 26

Ingame score increases for
Rabbits (for owning their second ring = 8tiles for 20 turns)
Imperio (for owning their second ring = 12tiles for 20 turns)
Banana (for owning their second ring = 3tiles for 20 turns)
RB (for gaining a tech = BW)

For the records, here is the demographics screen:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0185.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0185.JPG)

mh

[regoarrarr]

Can we get a recap of each team and what we know about them (size of capital / techs known / builds / etc).

Of course we can't know everything but we could make some guesses and it might be useful to have it all in one post.

I thought I remember someone doing something like this a few turns ago and I looked for it to give us a start at updating it (rather than having to create it from scratch) but could not find it

[mostly-harmless]

I will be away for a couple of days, but wil take care of it on the weekend.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn27


<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0189.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0189.JPG)

The Ministry of Truth was puzzled by our increase in soldier points by 2000 instead of 1000 for employing Gogo the warrior. Checking the numbers the MoT was further puzzled how we got up 17000 points over all last turn.
It looks like that with the patch the value of a warrior was increased from 1000 to 2000 points. However, nothing is stated in the change log, so we don't know what else they changed. That is annoying and makes our lives harder analysing the demo screen unfortunately.
It also means the early power graph is now more weighted towards real units than before, which is good for our bluff IF the Templars know about that change.


mh

[Sullla]

The disparity in Solider points is indeed troubling, mostly_harmless. Let's calculate up our own points and see the full tally:

Population
size 2 = 1000

Technologies
Hunting 2000
Mining 2000
Animal Husbandry 2000
Bronze Working 8000

Total = 15,000

We have two warriors, so obviously each are worth 2000 points for the total of 19,000. Perhaps one of the undocumented patch changes was to double the value of all military units in soldier count (?) We'll have to experiment and find out.

We will be able to see the Templars' Demographics next turn, which will yield more useful information.

[mostly-harmless]

I made a quick check on the change in soldier points calculation.
I only checked out a few techs and there seems to be no changes.
The same for buildings (checked barracks, stable) and pop points.
However, there are significant changes to how much soldier points units give.
Here is a small list of early units and their updated soldier points for BtS 3.17 (filled out completely by Sullla):

2000 - Warrior, Quecha, Galley
3000 - Archer, Trireme, Caravel
4000 - Spearman, Holkar, Chariot, War Chariot, Galleon, Airship,
5000 - Catapult
6000 - Axeman, Swordsman, Horse Archer, Pikeman, Landsknecht, Longbow, Privateer, Guided Missile
7000 - Crossbow, Cho-Ko-Nu
8000 - Trebuchet, War Elephant, Frigate
9000 - Maceman, Musketman, Oromo Warrior
10000 - Knight, Ship of the Line
12000 - Cannon, Cuirassier, Grenadier, Ironclad, Fighter
14000 - Rifleman, Machine Gun, Missile Cruiser, Anti-Tank
15000 - Cavalry
16000 - Transport, Carrier, Bomber
18000 - SAM Infantry, Artillery
20000 - Infantry, Stealth Bomber
22000 - Mobile SAM
24000 - Jet Fighter
26000 - Gunship, Mobile Artillery
28000 - Marine, Submarine
30000 - Tank, Paratrooper, Destroyer, Attack Submarine, Stealth Destroyer, Tactical Nuke
32000 - Mechanized Infantry
40000 - Modern Armor, Battleship, ICBM

For comparison, here is the list of units as it used to be when we started the game:

1000 soldiers – Warrior, Quechua
2000 soldiers – Spearman, Archer, Chariot
3000 soldiers – Axeman

I don't have time to go through the whole list of units.
Any volunteers?

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 28 has began.

Banana increased their ingame points by 6 to 61.
So they learned a tech.
And not a military relevant one, since the soldier points have not be changed since the last turn.
Here the demographics screen:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0200.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0200.JPG)

I noticed that someone manipulated the Espionage point assignment to give all 4ept to Templars and none to Imperio.

I assume this to see the Templars Demographics asap?
Or is there a more sinister scheme at work?
I would be in favor to always assign enough points to Templars to see their demographics.

I looked at the Templars graphs that have become visible this very turn and put some annotation onto them.

GNP:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0194_mod.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0194_mod.JPG)
We are ahead in the beginning due to our additional 2cpt. The the Templars finish research into Meditation on turn 11 and gain the additional 5cpt from the holy city from turn 12 onwards.
Interestingly it seems the GNP drops temporarily by 2 in every turn a tech is researched (Templars t11 & t21; RB t12 & t26).

Production:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0195_mod.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0195_mod.JPG)
It can be seen that they switched their worked tile after racing to Mediation. The increase in city size is visible on turns 15 & 23.
Currently running at 3hpt, which is not much if they really go for Stonehenge, even with being industrious.

Food:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0196_mod.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0196_mod.JPG)
The food graph shows the switch in the worked tile on turn 12 after they successfully won the Meditation race, now emphasizing food. Also shown the increase in city size on turns 15 & 23.
Templars are currently running only with 2 excess food.

Power:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0197_mod.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0197_mod.JPG)
Here the history of soldier points for the Templars.
T1: Initial Quecha = 1000
T8: Quecha built -> +1000 = 2000
T15: Jerusalem (capital) grows to size 2 -> +1000 = 3000
T17: Quecha built -> +1000 = 4000
T22: military relevant tech popped from a hut -> +2000 = 6000
T24: Quecha built -> +2000 (post patch) = 8000

Templars are not doing very well in food and production with their 3 worked tiles. However they seem to generate more beakers per turn than we are currently (two more per turn), which is indicating that they again emphasizing research over everything else.
Could they go for the next religion???

mh

[Sullla]

Originally posted by mostly-harmless I noticed that someone manipulated the Espionage point assignment to give all 4ept to Templars and none to Imperio.

I assume this to see the Templars Demographics asap?
Or is there a more sinister scheme at work?
I would be in favor to always assign enough points to Templars to see their demographics.

I apologize, that was my doing. We only had a few hours left in the turn, and we would not have been able to see the Templars Demographics this turn with the 2/2 split of points. There wasn't enough time to discuss it with the team. Not something I would do normally, very sorry about that.

The discussion of how to spend our Espionage points should be its own thread, actually. I'll go ahead and create one.

[sooooo]

Excellent work analysing the graphs mostly harmless!

[Zeviz]

These annotated graphs are very helpful.

[sunrise089]

Very nice work on the graphs.

[mostly-harmless]

A quick update on the race for the pink dot.
Just in case Templars are not building Stonehenge right now, but are working on a settler.
A settler costs 100hammers.
Templars could have switched to settler production on turn 25 after finishing their Quecha. Since then they are putting 3 shields & 2food into settler production, plus 1hammer from overflow.
That will give them a settler on turn 44. They will need at least 3 turns to move him into a position that could endanger pink dot.
There is potential for the Templars to speed that up by researching BW, swapping to anarchy and whipping the settler.
That will give us one turn forewarning as we do not have to suffer a turn of anarchy. But we will need 6 turns from settler production to founding pink dot.
So if the Templars are staying away from BW we are fine, as our settler will finish on turn 37.
We are also fine should we observe the Templars jumping to size 4 on turn 36.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 29
In game score increase by 4 for Imperio & RB, because of both capital growing to size 6.

For the records, the demo screen:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0213.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0213.JPG)

Nothing more of interest.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 30

PAL sees their ingame score reduced by 4 to 72 after they logged in, indicating they whipped their capital again. This time for one pop down to size 1.

And the demo screen:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0221.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0221.JPG)

The reduction in soldier points and population is consistent with PAL whipping their capital from size 2 to 1.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 31

Nothing!

<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0234.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0234.JPG)

<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0226.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0226.JPG)
From the foreign relations we can see that we are still the only ones on our continent to have contacted PAL.
However, from the espionage points assigned by PAL towards us (2ept) we can deduct that PAL has contact to one other civ on their continent. If they are actively managing their espionage points they could have met two other civs of course.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 32

Rabbits gained 6 ingame points suggesting a tech researched.

From the demo screen,
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0238.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0238.JPG)

we can see that the soldier points went up by 4000 accumulated across all our rivals.

So the Rabbits could have learned a military relevant tech worth maximum 4000 soldier points (keep in mind that other civs could have built a warrior on the same turn, so the tech might be worth less.)

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 33

Interesting turn.
RB jumps to the top of ingame score (85) by gaining a tech (The Wheel). This gives us 6 points.

PAL also see their score increased at the start of the turn by 6, implying they also researched a tech this turn (as the soldier points increased it could be a military relevant one).

After logging in we see PALs score rise further by 4 points (to 82).
4 points increase after log in = pop point gained after log in = city founded.
PAL settled their second city.

This is confirmed by the demoscreen:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0250.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0250.JPG)

Notice how the worst rival has 2000 population. This is only possible with two size 1 cities as a size 2 city is already equal to 6000 population.

Also look at the increase of average land size. From turn 32 to turn 33 we see additional 9000 km^2 increase. That means PAL settled their second city off the coast with no water tiles in their first ring.

The soldier points increased by 3000 points.
This would be consistent with one archer finished by some civ and a military irrelevant tech researched by PAL or a military relevant tech researched worth 3000
EDIT:
There is no longer a unit that gives only 1000 points and there is no tech that gives either 1000 or 3000 points.
Therefore we talking about an archer here.
Will have to edit this post later this week.

mh

[Sullla]

More great work, mostly_harmless! :D :b: :b:

I'm glad that PAL isn't on our continent, given their rapid, whip-happy start. Since we are the only one on our continent who's contacted them, maybe we can try to work with them (?) Actually, I might type that up in a separate post.

[Zeviz]

Thanks for the update.

It does look like PAL is expanding quite rapidly and might dominate their continent.

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 34

Both our neighbors research a tech.
Imperio's ingame score goes up by 6 to 85.
Templar's ingame score goes up by 6 to 86.

From the demoscreen we can see an increase in overall soldier points by 2000, suggesting Imperio researched either Hunting or Animal Husbandry. Since I wrote the same conclusions about Imperio already a while back, we can now we sure they have both Hunting & AH. (Unless they went for Fishing with their land start, which would be weird.)

<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0258.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0258.JPG)

Why I am so sure it was Imperio that got the military relevant tech???
Because Templars researched Polytheism and founded Christianity! (religion choosing is on)

So we have three civs in the game that start with Mysticism and Templars got both early techs. Nice for them.

That means Jerusalem gets quite a chunk of early culture.
But it also means it is unlikely that Templars pose a threat to us at the moment.

Furthermore I noticed that Imperio did not log in once for turn 33, so they definitely suffer from lack of organization.

mh

[darrelljs]

Nice of them to found two religions, build Stonehenge, and use the resulting Great Prophets to build a pair of shrines for us :).

Darrell

[Sullla]

More nice work, mostly_harmless. Are we able to conclude from the Demographics that the Templars are building Stonehenge? (I'm pretty confident that they're doing so, but it would be nice to confirm it somehow.)

So are the Templars actually trying to win the game, or just goofing around? I think we're quite lucky to have them as our close neighbors. If their religions spread to us, we could be well positioned later on for a Cultural victory.

[mostly-harmless]

Originally posted by Sullla
More nice work, mostly_harmless. Are we able to conclude from the Demographics that the Templars are building Stonehenge? (I'm pretty confident that they're doing so, but it would be nice to confirm it somehow.)
It is hard to say.
Will the industrious bonus show up in the demographics screen? I have to check.
We will soon see whether they are going for a worker or settler.
If they are not, then I guess it is hard to predict whether they are building stonehenge or barracks or something else just from the demographics.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 35
Unfortunately the civstat uploader is down.
From logging in I could see that Team Banana got a huge ingame points increase.
From 61 to 76!
Now lets look at the demo screen:

<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0264.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0264.JPG)

The following changes can be seen.
+6000 land
+1000 soldier
+16000 population

All three are consistent with Bananas capital growing from 2 to 3 (confirmed by the Top 5 cities screen) and with Banana settling their second city on the coast (6 landtiles out of 9 tiles in the first ring).

I also think they got 6 points for learning a tech.
The two pop points increase (growth & new city) got them 4+5 points. (I tested earlier that pop increase can vary between 4 & 5 points, at least after the new patch).
Once the uploader is back online, I can doublecheck.

Furthermore, I noticed that the Rabbits capital has not grown from size 2 to 3 in 18 turns. Assuming they get say 5 hammers + excess food they are now at 90hammers for a settler. Or have finished a worker earlier and will grow to size 3 any time soon. My money is on settler.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 36 has begun.

And big surprise:
Imperio completed Stonehenge!!!
That surely comes unexpected.
So maybe their strategy was not early rush at all, but early chopped Stonehenge?

Anyway, the Templars were not building Stonehenge in parallel, because in that case we would have seen Jerusalem grow to size 4 this turn.
That means they are either building a worker (finished this turn) or a settler (finished in turn 44)!

The effects on our immediate game play is that Imperios borders pop to the 3rd ring on turn 39. That could potentially prevent our scout from circling their territory if the 3rd ring touches the sea in the east, so better hurry.

Furthermore Imperio will get a Great Prophet eventually.

We can also claim to be the most cultured continent by far with:
RB 4cpt
Imperio 11cpt
Templars 12cpt

The demoscreen for the records:
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0275.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0275.JPG)

mh

[Zeviz]

It's good to hear that we are in less danger than expected from Imperio. Sounds like another argument for early cottages. :)

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 37
Luckily civstat got reconnected.

So lets start:
PAL got an increase by 4 to 86 at the beginning of the turn.
This means a city has grown a pop point.
PAL had both their cities at size 1 the previous turn.
"The Warning" was whipped down to size 1 on turn 30 and has a netted fish resource. Their second city just got founded on turn 33.
So it is save to assume their capital has regrown.
Now, PAL seems rather keen on using the whip, as I spotted a ingame score decrease once they logged in back to 82. And also the demographics reveal that they whipped their second pop point again!

Rabbits are also listed with getting an ingame score increase from 84 to 88 once they logged in. This means that they settled their second city. The stalled growth of Rabbits capital since ages was hinting on that already.
(From the next turns demographics we will see, that it is also a coastal city with 6 land tiles out of 9 inner ring tiles.)

So all three rivals on the other continent have their second city up and running. PAL on turn 33, Banana on turn 35 and finally the Rabbits on turn 37.

We will settle around turn 42 I guess.
We know that Templars are going for either worker or settler currently. Worker would have been completed on turn 36, the settler will complete on turn 44.
Imperio has just finished Stonehenge, so they are currently furthest away from settling a second city, but have the ability to chop and also know BW to switch to slavery for whips.

Apart from that there are no major changes.
Soldier points went up by 2000 indicating another warrior was built somewhere.

Here are the demographics from the middle of turn 37 (before Rabbits settled their second city):

<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0281.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0281.JPG)

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn 38

Rabbits got another score increase by 5 indicating that their capital has grown to size 3.
So excluding PAL, all capitals are at size 3 now.

<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0287.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0287.JPG)

Soldier points are up by 1000 accounted for by Rabbits capital growing to size 3.
Population increase, the same (plus the 1000 for Rabbits second city)
The increase in land area also comes from Rabbits second city, which is a another coastal city with 6 land tiles out of the inner 9.

In other news, Imperio and Templars have still not met PAL.

mh

[Sullla]

Here's an updated version of the Demographics charts to reflect our new knowledge of Imperio, and include the changes to the Templars over the past 15 turns. Many thanks to mostly_harmless for compiling so much of this data! :b:

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADG-1.png

GNP: Imperio starts at 18, indicating that they began working a tile that was not on a river. (By looking at the other graphs, we can deduce that we started with an initial worker, and worked a 0/3/0 forested plains hill tile.) Templars shoot up 5 points on turn 11, when they found their first religion, then again on turn 34 when they found their second. Imperio receives a huge GNP boost of 10 from building Stonehenge on turn 36 - but of course, eight of those ten points are just culture from the wonder. They picked up two actual points of commerce from swapping to some river tiles (production falls from 7 to 4, food rises from 6 to 9; likely a plains hill swapped to a floodplains tile).

Although the Templars and Imperio look superior at the moment due to their high culture ratings, all three teams are actually producing nearly the same amount of beakers, within one or two points of one another. Nothing noteworthy yet; we'll be able to see when Imperio starts working their gold resource.

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADG-2.png

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADG-3.png

Production/Food: Imperio begins the game working the aforementioned forested plains hill tile, for 4 shields/turn (building a worker). With their Expansive bonus, it takes them 12 turns to build the worker, then they switch to a floodplains tile (3/0/1) to grow their capital. Imperio works this tile for 8 turns (T14 to T22) which, not coincidentally, is exactly how long it takes to grow the capital to size 2. At the new size, Imperio's capital produces 5 food and 4 shields; the most likely outcome (after subtracting out the 2 food/1 shield from the center tile) is one floodplains tile and one forested plains hill tile. They could also be working a 2/1 forested grassland and a 1/2 forested plains tile, of course... but the team would get less commerce that way, and we know that they have lots of floodplains. Imperio runs this configuration for four turns (to T26), then food rises to 8/turn for three turns while production drops to 1 - clearly working two floodplains tiles. Turn 30 sees food drop back to 6 (now break-even at size 3), while production rises to six, then seven shields. After Stonehenge completes (T36), they go back to a more food-heavy configuration, and production drops again.

In short, a team that swaps tiles frequently to meet their changing goals. The comparison to Templars' static bar graphs are striking. This is a group that we need to be wary of.

The Templars begin the game working a 1/1/1 tile for the first ten turns (?!) I'm not making that up! :lol: Apparently they went with a river plains tile to get the extra commerce to found their religion sooner... which is even dumber considering that no one else was making any attempt to found religions at all. It really makes you wonder what kind of weed they were smoking over there... http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Smilies/smoke.gif On T12 they go to a 3/0/0 tile, obviously their unimproved grassland cow. They finally hit size 2 on T15, and their city's output now reads 7 food/2 shields; we can deduce easily that they are working the 3/0/0 cows and a 2/1/0 forested grassland tile. Templars remain in this configuration until T23, when they reach size 3. The capital picks up 2 food/1 shield at size 3, so another forested grassland tile.

Now Templars LOOK good on paper here, but they still have no workers and no improved tiles at this juncture. They now finally begin the belated worker, and there is thus no change in the Demographics for many, many turns on end. If they began on T24 (after finishing a quecha - see military details below), the worker would take ten turns and finish on T34 (six food + shields/turn, workers costing 60 shields). The worker goes and builds a pasture on their cows, so we should observe an increase of 1 food and 2 shields/turn - and we do, on T39! Excellent! :D We can also state this definitive rule: if Jerusalem doesn't grow to size 4 in the next turn or two, the Templars are working on a settler. If they did start a new settler immediately after the worker (which seems likely), it will complete in about six more turns, sometime around T46. (I'm not exactly sure I have all the numbers right.) There is no possible way that the Templars can beat us to Pink Dot.

Summary - the Templars screwed up the opening, just as we suspected. We'll have a second city founded and a second worker produced in the capital before they even get their first settler finished, much less have it move and found a city. The Demographics have confirmed the poor play that we suspected all along.

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADG-4.png

Power: Now this is where it really gets fun. With all the information at our disposal, we can figure out what each civ has produced so far, and take a good guess at what they've researched! (I am heavily relying on mostly_harmless' excellent work here, as always.) I'll start with the Templars; here's what we already know:

T1: Initial Quecha = 1000
T8: Quecha built -> +1000 = 2000
T15: Jerusalem (capital) grows to size 2 -> +1000 = 3000
T17: Quecha built -> +1000 = 4000
T22: military relevant tech popped from a hut -> +2000 = 6000
T24: Quecha built -> +2000 (post patch) = 8000

Over the past 15 turns, there has been no movement in the Templars' power rating whatsoever. We know that they spent much of that time building a worker (finished T34) and founding their second religion (also T34). The only new change is an increase of 2000 points on T39. Since the Templars' score also increased by six points that turn, we know that they researched another military-relevant tech. They two that they have are AH and either Mining or Hunting (Sailing the only other option - not very likely). So add on to the above table:

T1: Initial Quecha = 1000
T8: Quecha built -> +1000 = 2000
T15: Jerusalem (capital) grows to size 2 -> +1000 = 3000
T17: Quecha built -> +1000 = 4000
T22: AH tech popped from a hut -> +2000 = 6000
T24: Quecha built -> +2000 (post patch) = 8000
T39: military relevant tech researched (Mining or Hunting) -> +2000 = 10k

The Templars have four total quechuas; they do not have Archery, and they do not have Bronze Working. I cannot possibly see this team as any kind of a threat in the near future. 40 turns into the game and no BW is almost criminal stupidity...

Now for Imperio. They start at 3000 points with their initial warrior (1000 points pre-patch) and initial Mining tech (2000 points). Imperio's first increase comes on T15, when they leap up 8000 points after finishing Bronze Working research. Next increase is 1000 points for capital growing to size 2 on T21. Imperio's power rating goes up another 2000 points on T23 from researching a tech; it is either Hunting or Animal Husbandry. It really doesn't matter which one Imperio grabbed first, because they researched the other 2000 point tech later on (T34). This second boost of 2000 points has to be from a tech, since their capital was in the process of finishing Stonehenge. CivStats confirms a six point increase on this turn, so definitely a tech learned. The table therefore reads:

T1: Initial warrior and Mining tech = 3000
T15: Research Bronze Working -> +8000 = 11k
T21: Capital grows to size 2 -> +1000 = 12k
T23: Research AH -> +2000 = 14k
T34: Research Hunting -> +2000 = 16k

Note that Imperio still only has one warrior built, the Woodsman II unit we saw scouting earlier. Of course, they could always whip defenders if needed in the capital, so they're actually less vulnerable than the Templars. When our scout moved past their capital on T38, their cows were only just getting a pasture; we can conclude from this that the early worker spent its turns chopping out Stonehenge instead of mining/pasturizing. Not a terrible strategy I guess, but probably not what I would have done. If Imperio is working on a settler now (likely), it will be finished in about 7 more turns, around T47. They might want another military unit to defend it though; one unit's not going to cut it for two cities! ;)

So there you go; that should give us all a pretty good idea of what the other two teams are up to. We should probably edit this info into the relevant team threads for easy reference. This was a fun way to pass a lazy evening while listening to baseball on the radio. Enjoy!

[Zeviz]

:applause:

Your picture of our neighbors' history is probably more complete than what their leaders know of their own civilizations. :)

[T-hawk]

Imperio receives a huge GNP boost of 10 from building Stonehenge on turn 36 - but of course, eight of those ten points are just culture from the wonder. They picked up two actual points of commerce from swapping to some river tiles (production falls from 7 to 4, food rises from 6 to 9; likely a plains hill swapped to a floodplains tile).

Off by one - by providing the free monument, Stonehenge is worth +9 culture total. That means they only picked up one real commerce. Your conclusion is probably right; they swapped to one river floodplains tile.


T1: Initial Quecha = 1000
T8: Quecha built -> +1000 = 2000
T15: Jerusalem (capital) grows to size 2 -> +1000 = 3000
T17: Quecha built -> +1000 = 4000
T22: AH tech popped from a hut -> +2000 = 6000
T24: Quecha built -> +2000 (post patch) = 8000
T39: military relevant tech researched (Mining or Hunting) -> +2000 = 10k

Apologies if this was covered already, but is that right on how the patch behaves? It changes the power value only for newly produced units (meaning the game only calculates additions and subtractions to the power graph, it doesn't total up a civ's power from zero)?


This was a fun way to pass a lazy evening while listening to baseball on the radio. Enjoy!

Hey, I do that too! Most evenings when I'm playing Civ or other games, I have the Mets on the radio. Baseball isn't exciting enough for one's full attention on TV, but works great as background entertainment. :)

[Zeviz]

Here is demographics screen from the time we finished turn 41.

Does the fact that we have lowest approval rate mean that nobody else has left their capital ungarrisoned?

PS ImageShack is acting up for me. Are there any better free image hosts?

[mostly-harmless]

I go off to a long weekend and all of the sudden the C&D thread gets lively! :D

Excellent analysis Sullla.
Sullla: We can also state this definitive rule: if Jerusalem doesn't grow to size 4 in the next turn or two, the Templars are working on a settler. If they did start a new settler immediately after the worker (which seems likely), it will complete in about six more turns, sometime around T46. (I'm not exactly sure I have all the numbers right.) There is no possible way that the Templars can beat us to Pink Dot.
Here my numbers and charts read the situation even better for us.
Templars started their worker with only 3food in food pile from the growth to size 3.
All the food for the next turns goes into the worker.
Then on turn 36 the worker finishes with no overflow and Templars either went for a settler, which should finish on turn 50 in the current tile configuration (improved cows) or went for something else and we will see growth to size 4 (26 food required) on turn 45.
I guess Sullla assumed a granary present when stating that rule (?).

Sullla: The only new change is an increase of 2000 points on T39. Since the Templars' score also increased by six points that turn, we know that they researched another military-relevant tech.

Minor point: The tech was researched on turn 40 if I read my civstat records correctly.


T-Hawk: Apologies if this was covered already, but is that right on how the patch behaves? It changes the power value only for newly produced units (meaning the game only calculates additions and subtractions to the power graph, it doesn't total up a civ's power from zero)?
Yes, that seems to be the way it works.

Zeviz: Does the fact that we have lowest approval rate mean that nobody else has left their capital ungarrisoned?
Our 55% are calculated by INT( 5:) / (5:) + 4:mad: ) *100)
There are two ways the worst rival's 60% could be calculated:
1. INT( 6:) / (6:) + 4:mad: ) *100)
Which implies a single city, that somehow gets 6 happy faces (can't be Templars as they have not yet chosen a state religion I believe, so it must be someone acquiring a luxury resource. Only Imperio could do that, and they don't have their capital roaded up to a gold hill yet, I am sure.) So this is unlikely but even so, the 4 :mad: indicate at least one missing protection unhappiness as both Imperio and Templars have not yet whipped.

or
2. INT( 9:) / (9:) + 6:mad: ) *100)
Which implies two cities (capital 5:) + 2nd city 4:)) and then already picking up 6 unhappy faces. None of the 2nd cities (there are three currently) has grown to size 2 yet. Two of the capitals (of the two cities civs) have size 3 (Banana & Rabbits). So we could get 4 :mad: from crowded and 2 :mad: from missing protection & whipping. I think recently founded cities do not get the missing protection malus that early. So we can say one of the other continents civs (probably Banana with their peninsula spot) has left their capital undefended.
Hope that makes sense.

So much for now.
I will update the missing turns soon.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Summary of the developments from Turn 39 - Turn 43

PAL:
T39 - learned a tech (nothing military relevant though). That's 6 techs learned + initial 2 techs.

T43 - Either their capital or their second city has grown to size 2. My money is on their capital and we will probably see their second city grown in the next couple of turns.

Rabbits:
T40 - learned a tech (nothing military relevant though, the soldier point increase is due to the Templars tech). That's 6 techs learned + initial 2 techs.

Templars:
T40 - learned a tech (either Mining or Hunting). That's 5 techs learned + initial 2 techs.

T43 - 18 points awarded for owning Jerusalems (capital) 13 tiles in the 3rd ring for 20 turns.

Imperio:
T39 - Stonehenge & Monument boosted 3rd ring pop at Mutal (capital)

T41 - learned a tech (worth max. 4000 soldier points =The Wheel, which would make sense as they have a worker ready and plenty of resources to connect, cows for health for example as they suffer from flood plains). That's 4 techs learned + initial 2 techs.

Banana:
EDIT: T43 - Apparently Banana hipped their capital down to size 2.

Other things:
Both Imperio and Templars have still not made contact with PAL
We will make quite a jump score wise by getting 22points awarded for our 3rd ring at Airstrip One on turn 46.

Unless people demand it, I won't show the demoscreens regularly. Only if they are important.

mh

[Sullla]

Update on the demographics bar graphs from the past few turns. (I'm leaving the other teams on the other continent to mostly_harmless for now!)

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADG-6.jpg

Here's the Power graph. The food and production ones were not interesting, merely showing our nosedive in shields and huge increase in food as we shifted focus at the capital. During the last five turns, here's the changes:

Realms Beyond
+1000 (total city population increase from 3 to 4, with Pink Dot added) on T44

Imperio
+4000 on T41. As mostly_harmless explained earlier, this can only come from discovering The Wheel tech
+2000 on T44. Since they could not have researched another tech so quickly, we can conclude that Imperio built a second warrior.

Templars
+2000 on T40. We are pretty sure that this came from learning a tech, either Mining or Hunting likely.

Total Power Scores:

Realms Beyond: 32k
2k population
6k military (3 warriors at 2k each)
24k techs (BW - 8k, Archery 6k, Wheel - 4k, Hunt/Mine/AH - 2k each)
0k buildings

Imperio: 22k
1k population
3k military (1 warrior at 1k, 1 warrior at 2k)
18k techs (BW - 8k, Wheel - 4k, Hunt/Mine/AH - 2k each)
0k buildings

Templars: 10k
1k population
5k military (1 warrior at 2k, 3 warriors at 1k each)
4k techs (AH and either Hunt OR Mine - 2k each)
0k buildings

The Templars have the strongest military on the continent despite the lowest Soldier score by far! :lol: But four quechua aren't really all that dangerous, especially not when they're spread out all over the continent.

I will try to keep this updated as much as possible, although it's going to be tough the longer we go. The Power graph is really helpful - with some work, you can figure out exactly what the other teams are doing! :D

[mostly-harmless]

Originally posted by Sullla

Imperio
+2000 on T44. Since they could not have researched another tech so quickly, we can conclude that Imperio built a second warrior.

That is not correct. They got a score increase by 6 that turn, which implies a tech.
Must be a cheap one, they could do with overflow and 3 turns research. Maybe they even invested beakers into it earlier.
So, still only the initial warrior for Imperio it seems.

mh

[Sullla]

Are you sure they didn't get points for some other reason? Or perhaps Imperio built a second warrior earlier, and we mistakenly identified it as a tech? Only Mining, AH, Hunting, and Sailing confer 2000 soldier points. Since we already pegged them as having the first three, that would mean that Imperio just researched Sailing, which doesn't appear to make any sense.

Given the game situation, it seems a lot more likely that Imperio has Mining/AH/Hunting + 2 warriors than Mining/AH/Hunting/Sailing + 1 warrior. Can we confirm this one way or another using CivStats?

[mostly-harmless]

There is of course the possibility that they did not get the 2000 soldier points from the tech, but from producing another warrior. However, the are several points suggesting otherwise:
- they received 6 points increase for the ingame score, implying the researched a tech 3 turns after they researched the last one.
I don't see any other way they could have received those 6 points (no population, no land, no wonders).
- we derived that they are currently building a settler, as Mutal has not grown in a long time. So why switch to a warrior.
- Sailing does make some sense, if you look at Imperios land in the north east. If they plan on settling there, camping all the beavers and deers, there are plenty of seafood resources around.

Of course there is always a degree of uncertainty involved.

mh

[Sullla]

More number-crunching... let's look at the GNP stat and try to make sense of these stats. The current numbers are:

Realms Beyond: 22
Templars: 28
Imperio: 27

What does this mean? The GNP calculation adds up the beakers, gold, culture, and espionage produced by all cities, after modifiers have taken place. This gets really complicated later on, but we can work it out fairly simply at the moment. I'll start by breaking down our own figure for an example.

Realms Beyond
Beakers: 11 (capital) + 1 (Pink) = 12
Gold: 0
Culture: 4 (capital) + 2 (Pink) = 6
Espionage: 4 (capital) = 4
12 + 6 + 4 = 22

Based on what we know about the other teams, we can work out their beaker counts at the moment!

Imperio
Gold: 0 (likely)
Culture: 2 (palace) + 8 (Stonehenge) + 1 (monument) = 11
Espionage: 4
Beakers must therefore be 27 - (11 + 4) = 12/turn

8 commerce comes from the palace, plus 1 commerce from the center tile, so Imperio is pulling in three additional commerce. Now, Imperio's pulling 9 food and 7 shields per turn. Without the center tile, that's 7 and 6, respectively, from three worked tiles. They are assuredly working the plains cattle, a 3/3/0 tile. For the other four food and three shields, the most likely configuration is a floodplains tile (3/0/1) and a grassland hill (1/3/0). I believe that Imperio is working a cottage on that floodplains, which is where the extra two commerce comes in. That would mean they are building a settler right now, working these three tiles:

Plains cattle (3/3/0)
Floodplains cottage (3/0/3)
Mined grassland hill (1/3/0)
Total: 7/6/3, adding up perfectly :cool:

Templars
Gold: 0 (likely)
Culture: 2 (palace) + 5 (Buddhism) + 5 (Christianity) = 12
Espionage: 4
Beakers must therefore be 28 - (12 + 4) = 12/turn

Templars are producing 9 food and 5 shields at the moment (so 7 and 4 after removing the center tile again). Obviously one of their three worked tiles is the 4/2/0 grassland cattle. That means we have to come up with 3 food and 2 shields from the other two tiles. The only thing I can think of is a grassland forest (2/1/0) and one of those unimproved plains river tiles (1/1/1), although I find it hard to believe that even the Templars would screw up that badly. I also can't get the commerce to add up correctly, so I've made some kind of mistake here. :( If someone wants to play with the numbers and try to get them to work out, be my guest.

The good news? We are producing the same number of beakers as the other two teams on our continent, and will leap past them as soon as we connect a road to Pink for our first trade route. :b:

[T-hawk]

I also can't get the commerce to add up correctly, so I've made some kind of mistake here.(

The GNP number for commerce includes the beaker bonuses applied for devaluation and optional prerequisites known. So if Templars are researching anything other than a first-level tech, there's at least a 20% bonus applied. That apparent 12 beakers is most likely either 10 or 9 from the land and palace; 9 if they're researching a devalued tech.

That goes for Imperio too, meaning that if they're researching anything other than a first-level tech, they don't have a cottage on their flood plain.

[Sullla]

Thanks, T-Hawk. Although why in the world the designers thought to program GNP in such a bizarre and obtuse way is beyond me...

[Zeviz]

We've found Imperio's second warrior and their Settler 2 tiles from their capital (check the screenshot in turnplayer thread), so that should help figure out what they've been working on.

In unrelated news, I noticed a couple turns ago that 5th city on the "top cities" list was size 2, but it's back up to size 3 now. So at least 2 civs are whipping their capital.

[mostly-harmless]

So looks like Imperio got themselves a warrior the same turn they researched a tech. That was always a possibility.
That means they researched one of the following techs later than we thought: AH & Hunting.

No big deal really. Glad our guys in field helped us out here. ;)

EDIT: re. whipping.
PAL & Banana are whipping their capital. PAL goes whip happy, really. They have whipped again this turn. Altogether PAL has whipped 5 pop points so far.

mh

[Sullla]

Very minor update for T46: Templars food dropped by one, and their production increased by two (GNP also went up by one). This is a clear indication that they swapped from a grassland forest (2/1/0) to a mined grassland hill on the river (1/3/1). My current best guess is that they are working the following three tiles:

Grassland cattle (4/2/0)
Grassland hill mine (1/3/1)
Plains tile??? (1/1/1)
Center tile (2/1/1)

Total: 8 food/7 shields - which is what the Demographics read. I can't understand why they would be working the river plains tile, but the Demographics seem to indicate that they are. :hmmm: Templars are definitely getting 8 food and not 9. Whatever. Their settler should finish in the next few turns (I expect we'll see a rearrangement of tiles when that happens).

[mostly-harmless]

Ok, here is what we saw in the last turns from Turn 44 to Turn 47.

PAL:
T46 - Learned a tech (nothing military relevant) and surprise, surprise they whipped their city again.
T47 - One of their cities, probably capital "The Warning" has grown back to size 2. More importantly the settled their 3rd city on a nice coastal spot with only 5 tiles in the initial 3x3 ring. So plenty of water. Which makes sense as they know Fishing and have plenty of seafood resources around. I would not be surprised to find their city on that southerly cluster of 3 fish, which we barely see.

Rabbits:
T45 - Their second city grows to size 2.

Templars:
Sullla provides deep insight into their city management.
I can add that they on
T47 - researched a tech. Now soldier points have gone up by 5000 that turn. However tech worth 5000 points are not researchable at the moment (Composites & Stealth) so it is a 4000 points tech, which makes it The Wheel.
Also 1000 soldier points are accounted for by PALs third city bringing their pop count back to 4.

From my secret tables, I predict that their settler finishes on turn 49.

Imperio:
T44 - Researched a tech. From a few posts earlier we know it was a military relevant tech worth 2000 but was not Sailing but rather AH or Hunting.

Banana:
T44 - Researched a tech. From the soldier points it is most likely a 2000 point tech, so either AH or Hunting or Sailing. With only 10 workable land tiles out of 28 workable tiles altogether I would not be surprised if they researched themselves Sailing. Just a feeling.
Their second city has grown to size 2.
T46 - Their capital has grown back to size 3.
T47 - And their capital was whipped one pop point down to size 2 again.

Realms Beyond:
T46 - we got a massive ingame score increase by 21 due to owning our third ring (16 tiles) for 20 turns.


A few thoughts on civ power and how to judge it.
One could judge the power of civ by the number of tiles it is able to work, at least in the early days.
On top of that the availability of workers should be noted as improved tiles are even better.
Also the number of whipped pop points can be listed as it is a conversion of food to hammers.

So here is the list:
(note that I include the city tiles in here as well.)
I will also assume we grow next turn to size 4 and Imperio settles their second city.

PAL: 7 tiles & 5 whips
RB: 7 tiles (worker bonus) & 0 whips
Banana: 6 tiles & 3 whips
Imperio: 6 tiles (worker bonus) & 0 whips
Rabbits: 7 tiles
Templars: 4 tiles (worker bonus)

Hope that makes some sense.

mh

[Sullla]

More nice work. I've been putting some tables together with Demographics info, and all the Food indicators are suggesting that PAL is off to a monster start. Their score only looks bad because they have been whipping nonstop... but it's extremely likely that most of those whips have been for work boats, only exploding their grwoth curve further ahead. I am very, very worried about them longterm. Banana also has a seafood start and is doing decently, although not in the same league. The only good news is that both of the civs on our continent are far behind the pace set by these teams. I'll have some more Demographics stuff to post when we hit the T50 landmark.

Now, the fairness of giving one team a triple-fish coastal start is another issue entirely... :o :doitnow!:

[mostly-harmless]

I am not sure PAL got a triple fish start? Do you get this from your food tables?
I would guess they got one seafood resource at their capital (maybe two?). Their second city is land locked, so not seafood.
Their third city, as I said is a coastal city again.
If you need my history of world cities and growths and whips and border pops let me know and I email it to you.

mh

[ruff_hi]

recent email from PAL
Feel free to propose something else; we have all the base technologies (hunting in 4) plus bronze working, masonry, pottery and AH. If you agree to such a deal we could start be-lining alphabet.
They just gave us their current techs!

[Sullla]

Not a full update, more like a summary of what we've found so far. As always, many thanks to mostly_harmless for compiling much of this info. :b: We can be nearly certain that the Templars and Imperio started out the game thusly:

Templars

T1 Building quechua
T7 Quechua -> quechua
T17 Quechua -> quechua
T24 Quechua -> worker
T36 Worker -> settler
T48 Settler should be due this turn

Begin with Mysticism and Agriculture
T1 Researching Meditation
T11 Meditation -> Masonry (?) [this is a guess, but the cost in beakers had to be around 110 and NOT one that gives Soldier points; Masonry is the only one that fits these criteria]
T21 Pop AH from hut, Masonry -> Polytheism
T34 Polytheism -> Mining
T40 Mining -> Wheel
T47 Wheel discovered

The only thing we might have gotten backwards is the double techs on T21. It would seem more logical to assume that Templars researched AH and popped Masonry from a hut. Still, with them you never know. ;)

Imperio

T1 Building worker
T15 Worker -> warrior
T22 Warrior -> Stonehenge
T36 Stonehenge complete (61 shields production + 3 forest chops) -> settler
T45 Settler (~80 shields + 1 forest chop) done

Begin with Mysticism and Mining
T1 Researching BW
T16 BW -> Agriculture (?) [not certain, but this is the only possible logical choice]
T23 Agriculture -> AH
T34 AH -> Wheel
T41 Wheel -> Hunting
T45 Hunting discovered

I have edited this info into the first post of each team's thread. Not sure how long we can keep doing this as the other teams settle more cities, but for now it's proving pretty entertaining.

[Sullla]

Not much going on for T49. No score increase for any teams, no Power changes (no units built), and Imperio and Templars are both working the same tiles as before. Only difference is that the Templar GNP went up by three points (from 28 to 31), which suggests that they are now researching a tech discounted by having at least one prerequisite. Likely candidates are Pottery (from Agriculture) and Bronze Working (from Mining). Hopefully they are silly enough to continue delaying BW, which every other team has had for 20+ turns now.

Imperio also did not log in and play their last turn, so their settler is still sitting in the same spot as before. :rolleyes: If we had some kind of resource, we could probably kill them before they even logged into the game and found out what was happening.

[mostly-harmless]

I need to correct Sulllas statement:
1. Banana got a score increase by 6, implying a tech researched.
2. Imperio did log in for turn 48 (according to civstat) and more importantly did log in this turn (T49) and founded their second city in a nice spot. (Also getting a score increase by 5 accordingly).

In other news Templars settler must have finished this turn (according to our intel).

mh

[Sullla]

I was logged into the game last night when the turn rolled over, and there was no score increase displayed for Banana. I guess it doesn't update automatically if you're already logged in (?)

Imperio definitely did NOT play their turn (on T48), because the clock ticked all the way down to zero. They did play this turn and found a new city though, as mostly_harmless mentioned. I think part of the confusion is that when I say nothing happened, I'm referring to the Demographics screen/graphs, which don't get updated until the turn AFTER the one currently being played. So it would be more correct to say that little happened on T48, which is the prior turn. :)

I was hoping that Imperio would push their settler a little further south, just to screw over the Templars completely, but they took a great spot just southeast of Mutal. They could have been there last turn if they'd bothers to move though. ;)

[mostly-harmless]

It seems to me that Imperio often logs in, move their units but do not finish their turn by pressing "Enter", which is a bit annoying.
As I said, civstat shows they logged in for turns 47 & 48 & 49.

Anyway, fact is they have a nice second city, which will get the 2nd ring pop in 10 turns from the free monument.

mh

[Sullla]

Rabbits have researched a tech this turn (T50). But the bigger news is that the Templars completed a fifth quechua last turn (T49). They have four of them wandering around our borders, and the fifth one presumably is in their capital. Does that mean that the Templars interrupted a settler build to squeeze out more quechuas? They should have finished their settler by now, but we've seen no sign of it to the east or west of Jerusalem. I have trouble believing that the Templars would be intending to plant a city directly north of their capital...

Essentially, the question is whether or not we think the Templars are planning on attacking us. Building a fifth quechua seems pretty dubious already. If they should train a sixth one, I think it removes all doubt. They cannot take any cities, naturally, but pillaging could be troublesome. We should try to discourage them diplomatically from such a suicidal course of action. An early rush is only going to take both of our teams completely out of the competition.

[mostly-harmless]

Quick update for T51. PAL finally made contact with Imperio.

mh

[Sullla]

More info for turn 51:

Our score went up by 10 points, 6 of those are from researching Fishing and the other 4 are from Pink Dot growing to size 2. Imperio received 4 points because Mutal (their capital) has grown to size four. PAL picked up 6 points, so they have learned another tech (Hunting, based on what they told us). Finally, Banana gained 4 points, so one of their two cities has grown another size (capital 2-> 3?)

In other news, our GNP went up from 21 to 26 merely from researching a tech with no prerequisites (Fishing) to one with two known prerequisites (Pottery). Our actual beaker count was completely unchanged, 12/turn. Our Food/Production stats continue to compare favorably to our competitors, at least until PAL recovers from their whippings. The Templars are way, way behind everyone else because they still only have 1 city at size 3 while everyone else has multiple cities.

In Soldier count, we went up by 1000 points from reaching six population points (4 + 2). Imperio went up 5000 points last turn (T50) - what does this tell us? Well, we know that they gained 1000 points from reaching four population points (3 + 1). The other 4000 cannot come from a tech, because they did not get a score increase last turn. That only leaves a soldier increase from buildings or units; there are no logical choices from the buildings, meaning it must come from the latter. I check the unit list, and a resourceless Mayan Holkar is worth 4000 points. Perfect! :D Imperio therefore now has two warriors and one holkar in terms of military.

(Second double-check: Imperio finished their settler on T46. They have been getting 7 shields/turn in the capital, so it should take four turns to build a holkar (25 shields) and appear on T50. This also lines up perfectly.)

I've gone ahead and edited this info into our thread on Imperio. mostly_harmless, I also have the complete list of unit value for BTS 3.17's Soldier count. It's in the original post where we brought this up, and also reposted here:

2000 - Warrior, Quecha, Galley
3000 - Archer, Trireme, Caravel
4000 - Spearman, Holkar, Chariot, War Chariot, Galleon, Airship,
5000 - Catapult
6000 - Axeman, Swordsman, Horse Archer, Pikeman, Landsknecht, Longbow, Privateer, Guided Missile
7000 - Crossbow, Cho-Ko-Nu
8000 - Trebuchet, War Elephant, Frigate
9000 - Maceman, Musketman, Oromo Warrior
10000 - Knight, Ship of the Line
12000 - Cannon, Cuirassier, Grenadier, Ironclad, Fighter
14000 - Rifleman, Machine Gun, Missile Cruiser, Anti-Tank
15000 - Cavalry
16000 - Transport, Carrier, Bomber
18000 - SAM Infantry, Artillery
20000 - Infantry, Stealth Bomber
22000 - Mobile SAM
24000 - Jet Fighter
26000 - Gunship, Mobile Artillery
28000 - Marine, Submarine
30000 - Tank, Paratrooper, Destroyer, Attack Submarine, Stealth Destroyer, Tactical Nuke
32000 - Mechanized Infantry
40000 - Modern Armor, Battleship, ICBM

For comparison, here is the list of units as it used to be when we started the game (3.13):

1000 soldiers – Warrior, Quechua
2000 soldiers – Spearman, Archer, Chariot
3000 soldiers – Axeman

[Sullla]

Update for T52: Imperio landed six points and therefore picked up a tech - one that did not give them Soldier points. Based on the fact that it took them 8 turns to research, and knowing what techs they already had, I am about 90% sure that they picked up Pottery. The only other option was Masonry, but they should have learned that in 7 turns, not 8, because they had both pre-requisites for Masonry and only one for Pottery. It's also more logical for them to go after Pottery than Masonry at this point.

PAL went up 12 points, then whipped away 4 of them. This could mean that all three of their cities went up in size by one, or it could mean that they picked up some land points, or even that they got a Classical era tech (although that seems unlikely). mostly_harmless, can you tell me what you think? You're better with the score tables than I am. :)

Nothing new in terms of tiles worked by our neighbors or Soldier count. If I had to guess, I'd say that Imperio is building a second worker at one of their two cities right now. I really don't know that the Templars are working on. I believe that they finished a settler a couple turn ago, but we still haven't seen any sign of it yet. They are ridiculously behind everyone else's growth curve by now...

[mostly-harmless]

Yes, PAL's increase by 12 points was puzzling me as well, because they are not due for land points yet.
However, digging into the population points reveals that indeed all three of their cities have grown that turn.
More specifically, "The Warning" now size 3, Thebes now size 2, Memphis now size 2.
And, as you already mentioned, they whipped away one pop point from one of their size 2 cities (can't say which one for sure, but my money is on Memphis, as it appears to have more food available).

EDIT: Looks like the game got reset for this turn. So PAL has yet to re-whip. (Their score was reset to 121)
EDIT2: From the Pitboss Connection thread, it appears that the game was reset because a team screwed up choosing a religion this turn. This can only mean Imperio, right? Since they are the only ones gaining a tech, unless they got their Great Prophet already?

mh

[Sullla]

Imperio cannot have founded a religion, not unless something really strange happened. Here's our chart of their research so far:

Begin with Mysticism and Mining
T1 Researching BW
T16 BW -> Agriculture (?) [not certain, but this is the only possible logical choice]
T23 Agriculture -> AH
T34 AH -> Wheel
T41 Wheel -> Hunting
T45 Hunting discovered
T52 Pottery (?)

They don't have a single tech from the monk branch of the tree as yet. Imperio also finished Stonehenge 16 turns ago, not nearly long enough to produce a Great Prophet. Templars researched Wheel only five turns ago, so it's not them either.

Honestly, I wonder if Snoopy may have made a mistake and posted in the wrong forum. According to my charts, no one should have founded a religion this turn... Maybe someone on the other continent? I guess we will find out soon enough though.

[mostly-harmless]

It appears Imperio did found Islam (remember religion choosing is on) in their second city Lakhama!
That city is now getting 6cpt, not bad for a second city. Templars will be delighted to hear that their juicy land in the NE is rapidly covered by Imperios culture. :-)
But it sure is puzzling how Imperio achieved this.

This is my statement from turn 11:
A size 1 capital for the Templars researching either Polytheism (143beakers) or Meditation (114beakers) in 11 turns. Since it would have shown up in the GNP graph if they were getting 13bpt and that would mean working a ?/?/4 tile, which is unlikely (even impossible?) it is safe to assume the Templars went for Meditation .
If I screwed that one up, then Templars did not get their first religion from Meditation but from Polytheism, researched or popped Masonry from a hut and went for Monotheism to get their second religion. Which means Meditation was still available for grabs. If that is the case, surely Imperio was rather surprised!
Sullla, please try to run the GNP numbers again for Templars to check if they could have gotten to Polytheism in 11 turns.


In other news, the impressive growth in PALs three cities, is due to an event ("post war baby boom" - is that really linked to ending a war?). Check the event log. A good example how events can be pretty unbalancing in the early turns.

mh

[Sullla]

Meditation was still available?! God, I *HATE* the "choose religion" option. All it does is make everything more confusing. And do we seriously have events turned on for this game?! Someone... well, enough said. You all know how I feel about the organizers of this game by now. :rolleyes: http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Smilies/smoke.gif

mh, to answer your question - yes, it is possible. We know the Templars were working a 1/1/1 plains river tile to start the game, presumably for the extra commerce. Every civ starts with 9 commerce (8 from the Palace, 1 from the center tile) so with the plains river tile, they were getting 10 beakers. When the research algorithm goes through, 1 beaker is always added to the displayed output, because you always get at least one beaker every turn. This is meaningless outside the early game, but for the purposes of this exercise, the Templars were getting 11 beakers/turn to start.

Now because the Templars started with Mysticism, they got a pre-requisite discount on researching Polytheism. We can therefore determine that their true beaker output was (11 * 1.2 = 13.2) -> 13 beakers/turn in the early going. And 13 beaker/turn over 11 turns = 143 beakers: the exact cost of Polytheism. They threw us all for a loop by selecting Buddhism instead of Hinduism, so we assumed that they had gone after Meditation. Heh.

On turn 21, the Templars then pop a tech from a hut, which we know can assuredly state was Masonry. They just finished AH research that same turn, so went ahead and researched Monotheism next, which was finished on T34. (For having both pre-requisites of Monotheism, Templars got a 40% bonus on research, so 11 * 1.4 = 15 beaker/turn, over 13 turns = 195, which is right around the cost of the tech.) Everyone else probably assumed (like we did) that they had taken the first two religions, when in reality the cheapest one was still sitting there. So Imperio TOTALLY lucked into a religion at almost no cost at all. If we had started with Mysticism, we would have been able to see it ourselves. At least PAL didn't get the religion - they had it there fore the taking with their Mysticism starting tech!

Oy. We in the Cloak and Dagger department got fooled on this one. :D But at least now we've updated the charts with the correct data now.

And the Templars are *REALLY* screwed now, if they weren't already. That's what you get for not expanding though!

[mostly-harmless]

Ack. I knew about the possibility of religion choosing but was fooled by the prerequisite bonus. It does not show up in the GNP graph & numbers, right?

Although, our decision making was not really affected by that wrong analysis, I nevertheless offer my resignation from the Cloak & Dagger department if the team wants it. :cry: ;)

mh

[Sullla]

I should mention that the info on the first page of the Templar/Imperio threads has been updated again. Everyone can get a quick check on what we know about the other teams by looking there, instead of having to dig through this thread.

For those who want the full story, here's the reference chart I've been using, in Excel format:

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADGStats.xls

I've edited this into the first post of the Cloak and Dagger thread, and will try to upload an updated version every week of so. It took a while to put together initially, but adding new entries once each turn is pretty easy. And fun too - I've always wondered how much info you could glean from the Demographics if you REALLY pushed it. :)

[mostly-harmless]

Thanks.
In fact I have a set of Excel tables, that look very much the same. My info on the cities development is a bit more detailed, so I will keep maintaining it.

Looking back at 2000 years Cloak & Dagger, I believe it served a good purpose in keeping people interested in the usually somewhat monotone early turns.

mh

[ruff_hi]

Originally posted by mostly-harmless Although, our decision making was not really affected by that wrong analysis, I nevertheless offer my resignation from the Cloak & Dagger department if the team wants it. :cry: ;)

mh
Oh stop being silly. Pick up that letter and get back to work. :D:D

[sooooo]

Hmm, looks like Imperio have their own Cloak and Dagger department and worked out that no one had researched meditation. Or can you tell this in the game that you will found a religion?

[Sullla]

You can always tell if a religion is still available, sooooo. There will be a little religious icon next to the tech if it is still available, nothing if not. (It's a generic icon for "pick religions", the religious symbol otherwise.)

Of course, it's possible that they also have an Español version of the C&D too... ;)

[ruff_hi]

Originally posted by Sullla
You can always tell if a religion is still available, sooooo. There will be a little religious icon next to the tech if it is still available, nothing if not. (It's a generic icon for "pick religions", the religious symbol otherwise.)The little symbol comes and goes depending upon 'first there' against the row of techs on the top of the screen, it is mentioned when you hover over the tech but it is always there when you look at techs via F6 (tech tree). Same with GPs (ie music) and free techs.

[mostly-harmless]

PAL's demographics are available. Sullla are you volunteering to dig through the graphs?
If so let me know if you need info about PAL' growth and whip cycles.

I will provide a C&D update Monday or so.

mh

[Sullla]

Yeah, it's on my to-do list for Sunday. (I was at an American football game all day on Saturday. :))

One quick thing to run past you, mh: Imperio's GNP went up by 10 last turn (thus showing up in the Demographics for the first time this turn), from 31 to 41. Obviously 5 of that came from founding religion... but where did the other 5 points come from? There are two choices:

- They are working one of their gold resources
- They are researching a tech with two known prerequisites

I'm leaning towards the second option, because their Food/Production numbers did not change. That would very likely mean that their current research is Masonry, which is also logical because they have marble to connect. Do you think that my reasoning here is on the right track?

[sunrise089]

Originally posted by Sullla
...(I was at an American football game all day on Saturday. :))
...

Congrats on the UMd win.

[Sullla]

Alright, I have finally compiled the PAL demographics. It's been much harder to figure them out, due to their constant whippings, but I think I have a solid grasp of what they've been up to. Let's go through the graphs in order, starting with the GNP figures:

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADG-5.png

There isn't all that much of interest here; I mostly posted it for record-keeping purposes. As best I can tell, PAL is researching just slightly faster than us, due to working a couple of coastal tiles. They are probably getting about 15 beakers/turn right now. (We might look bad on the graphs, however most of the Templar and Imperio GNP numbers come from their culture, not research. Templars actually have the lowest research rate by a fair margin.)

As far as PAL's research path, we can figure that out completely:

Start with Agriculture and The Wheel
T1: Begin Fishing
T6: Fishing -> Mining
T12: Mining -> Bronze Working
T18: Pop Mysticism from hut
T24: Bronze Working -> Animal Husbandry
T33: Animal Husbandry -> Masonry
T39: Masonry -> Pottery
T46: Pottery -> Hunting
T50: Hunting -> Writing (?)

We know that they went for Masonry after AH because it was researched a full turn faster than Pottery (despite the fact that the two have the same cost in beakers). But PAL had both prereqs for Masonry and only one for Pottery, so we can tell them apart. I suspect Writing is the current project for similar reasons; the PAL GNP increase from 21 to 25 on T51 suggests going from a tech with no prereqs (Hunting) to one with two (Writing). That, and we told them to research towards Alphabet too! :D

Next up the Food and Production graphs, which go together:

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADG-6.png

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADG-7.png

As we correctly guessed, PAL has been food-heavy and shield-poor throughout the game so far. The bar graphs themselves are rather confusing, but once I put them in my table and worked things out turn-by-turn, much became clear. Here's my early tile analysis:

T1: Start by working 3/0 tile (fish resource?)
T9: Size 2, working 3/0 and 0/3 tiles (fish + forested plains hill)
T11: Working 1/2 and 0/3 tiles (plains forest + forested plains hill)
T14-15: Not really sure what's going on here
T16: 10 food/1 shield here comes from 5/0 fish + 3/0 tile (fish #2?) + center tile
T20: Size 3, working 5/0, 3/0, and 3/0 tiles. Either multiple fish or multiple floodplains. Either one is bad news for us.
T25: Whip capital to size 2; working 5/0 and 3/0 tiles
T31: Whip capital to size 1, working 5/0 tile
T34: City #2 founded; capital working 5/0 tile, second city working 2/2 tile (more likely 2/1 founded on plains hill)
T37: Whip capital again to size 1; if working 5/0 tile, second city must be working a 3/3 tile - plains cattle?
T44: Capital hits size 2, adds a 3/0 tile (floodplains?)
T47: PAL whips capital, back down to two size 1 cities (capital working 5/0 tile, second city 3/3 tile)
T48: PAL capital size 2, settles city #3. At this point, it just starts to get ridiculous.
T53: Food increase of exactly 2, with no production change, likely indicates that the work boat has connected a fish resource at city #3 (3/0 tile to 5/0 tile)

I'm willing to stake my Cloak and Dagger credentials on guessing that PAL started with one fish resource, and that their second city was founded on a plains hill. :) I don't see any other way that the numbers can work out. I also believe that they have at least two other floodplains at their capital, or at the very least several 3/0 tiles. (But if they were grassland cows or corn tiles or something like that, they should have been improved to better numbers - so I'm thinking floodplains.)

Working backwards from this, I *THINK* I have the rough outlines of their build order:

T1: Start building warrior. Swap to work boat after discovering Fishing.
T16: Work boat -> warrior
T19: Warrior -> ??? [not settler/worker]
T25: Double-pop whip (60 shields), either going into a settler or worker
[Speculation time: I believe that PAL put just less than 30 shields into a worker, then grew to size 4, swapped back to worker, and double-whipped it to completion, sending 30 shields of overflow into a settler. This is what the numbers suggest.]
T26-30: Halt growth at size 2 while putting 7 food/shields into settler.
T31: Single-pop whip (30 shields), completing settler. Start work boat (?) while running max food
T33: City #2 settled
T37: Single-pop whip (30 shields) [I think this must be a work boat, with virtually all overflow going into settler. Nothing else makes sense - they can't have whipped a warrior or barracks, we would have seen an increase in Soldier points. And our scout spotted a PAL work boat shortly thereafter.]
T38-46: Capital puts three turns into settler (6 food/shields each turn), spends three turns growing to size 2, three turns into settler (7 food/shields each turn), then whips the final 30 shields of settler to completion
T47: Single-pop whip (30 shields), completes settler
T48: City #3 settled
T50: Warrior #2 built. Not sure if it was capital or second city.
T53: Single-pop whip (30 shields) - second worker? Granary? Not used on anything military

This confirmed our guess, that PAL was using the whip to complete their settlers and workers. Almost all whips were used to complete settlers, as far as I can tell. The upshot is that PAL doesn't have any infrastructure (except possibly one granary?) and probably only just finished their second worker. So perhaps they're not quite as much of a runaway as we feared?

The other major revelation is that PAL is a paper tiger in terms of military:

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADG-8.png

T1: Start with 5000 from warrior (1000) + Wheel (4000)
T8: +1000 from capital growing to size 2
T12: +2000 (8k) from researching Mining
T19: +2000 (10k) from building post-patch warrior
T24: +9000 (19k) from growing to size 4 (1000) and discovering Bronze Working (8000)
T25: -1000 (18k) from whipping down to size 2
T31: -1000 (17k) from whipping down to size 1
T33: +2000 (19k) from discovering AH
T34: +1000 (20k) from growing to size 2
T48: +1000 (21k) from growing to size 4 [2+1+1 city sizes]
T50: +2000 (23k) from building warrior #3
T51: +2000 (25k) from discovering Hunting
T52: +1000 (26k) from growing to size 6 [3+2+1 city sizes)

PAL has the absolute minimum defense possible right now, one warrior in each city. They must not be close to the other two civs on their island, or have worked out some kind of deal that makes them feel secure. In any case, they've been able to put all their efforts into expansion, which accounts for their fast start.

Whew! That's my say. :) I've also updated the Excel charts so that everyone can have the numbers on hand. I hope that someone will try to check this info again, and make sure that I haven't made any glaring errors in analysis.

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADGStats.xls

[mostly-harmless]

Outstanding work, Sullla! :b:

Here is my summary of the Turns 48 - 54
PAL:
T50: The Warning popped 3rd ring gaining only 5 land tiles! This could of course mean that there is already some overlap with their 2nd and/or 3rd city.
T51: Learned a tech. Hunting.
T52: Whip-happy PALs lucked out with the post-war event giving one pop point to each city. A nice boost for the civ with th emost cities. The Warning, Thebes & Memphis grow to sizes 3, 2 & 2. Either Memphis or Thebes got whipped down to size 1 the very same turn.
T53: Get awarded 13 points for owning the 9 tiles in Thebes' 1st ring (landlocked city). I assumed that 9 tiles equal 12 points, but maybe the factor changes with time? (we certainly only got 12 points for 9 tiles, same goes for Imperio)

Rabbits:
T50: Tech learned. Pretty sure its Archery since the increase in soldier points by 8000 overall is not only accounted for by the Rabbits tech, but we know PAL increased their soldier points as well by 2000 on that turn.
T51: Capital popped 3rd ring gaining additional 10 land tiles

Templars:
Nothing worth mentioning point wise.
We know they delayed their settler for getting out one more Quecha.

Imperio:
T49: Founded their 2nd city Lakhama. Landlocked (9 land tiles in 1st ring)
T51: Mutal grown to size 4.
T52: Tech learned. Meditation! Islam founded in Lakhama.
T54: Lakhama's 2nd ring popped due to Monument & holy city. (12 additional land tiles, including 1 overlap with Mutal.)

Banana:
T49: Tech learned. Could be worth up to 6000 points, so Archery is a likely candidate.
T51: Banana's capital grown to size 3. Their 2nd city whipped from size 2 down to size 1.
T52: Capital popped 3rd ring only gaining additional 4 land tiles. Even if there is already some overlap with their second city, there "land" must look silly. A long slender peninsula of some sort. Remember they only have 5 workable land tiles within their BFC.
T54: 2nd city grown back to size 2.


Sullla:One quick thing to run past you, mh: Imperio's GNP went up by 10 last turn (thus showing up in the Demographics for the first time this turn), from 31 to 41. Obviously 5 of that came from founding religion... but where did the other 5 points come from? There are two choices: - They are working one of their gold resources - They are researching a tech with two known prerequisites I'm leaning towards the second option, because their Food/Production numbers did not change. That would very likely mean that their current research is Masonry, which is also logical because they have marble to connect. Do you think that my reasoning here is on the right track?

If they go for Masonry, they also get a bonus from PAL and Templars having researched Masonry already. Does that still add up?

Sullla:I also believe that they have at least two other floodplains at their capital,...
You are probably right about those flood plains.
If you zoom in really close to PAL's borders you can actually see a river starting there. They are also in the right latitude to get floodplains. Also that river is mapmaker-engineered as it's spring lies actually in the ocean and the it flows inwards! :confused:

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Warning!
If I read the signs correctly Templars just produced their next Quecha on turn 54! We see an increase of 2000 in soldier points in their graph. No pop increase, no city improvement, no tech. A unit is the only option.
Now, they have four Quechas running around our borders, presumably one guarding their settler (if the settler is indeed built yet). So they will be in need of a garrison unit in Jerusalem.
But, if we see on more Quecha being built, I suggest we rethink our defenses a bit.
An option is also to drop them a hint, that we are well informed about their status.

mh

[ruff_hi]

Originally posted by Sullla
The other major revelation is that PAL is a paper tiger in terms of militaryI guess that makes us out to be a slightly thicker paper tiger then. Nice work Sullla.

I don't think that this game actually needs a historian as we seem to 'known' exactly what each team is doing ... so much so that we could write the early history of this game ourselves.

[sunrise089]

Another quecha?!

We may want a secret clarification from an Admin about the pseudo-double-move risk. As you will recall, double moving a city isn't allowed during war. As I stated in another thread however, moving, declaring war, and moving again may not be banned.

4 queches hitting any city will probably kill 2 warriors, so we may need to get some more troops out. Even breaking early unit chokes normally take 2:1 units...so having some extra warriors is a necessity if this cold war is heating up. We'd also want a warrior or two to send at the Templars to put pressure back on them.

[ruff_hi]

Should we reach out to our PALs and discuss the possibility of early military support?

[Krill]

Originally posted by ruff_hi
I don't think that this game actually needs a historian as we seem to 'known' exactly what each team is doing ... so much so that we could write the early history of this game ourselves.

Are you 100% correct though? ;) And if you think so, are you willing to stake the game on it? :scared:

[ruff_hi]

Thought this would get a comment from you. And just to remind you ... the victory writes the history :D

[mostly-harmless]

Exactly! :)

I don't think PAL will be of great military help in the near to mid future. It is still early days and us coming over as weak (when asking for help) might lead to PAL considering their alliance.

mh

[Krill]

I'll give you guys first refusal on being editors if and when you win ;) Have to say that your's is the forum I enjoy reading the most. Keep up the spam :b:

[sooooo]

Templars have 6 quechuas, right? Acting as both scouts and military. We have 2 scouts and 5 military units. I don't think having 6 quechuas is cause for alarm. Asking PAL for help when they have 6 quechuas would make us seem rather pathetic.

[Sullla]

I'm not terribly worried about Templars either. Based on their recent diplomatic messages and the disposition of their units, I just cannot see them trying to attack us any time soon. 3 of the 4 quechuas are positioned as scouts, and another two are garrisoning their two cities. I think the Templars are actually terrified of us attacking THEM, and are trying desperately to stave that off. At least, that's how I read things.

mh, I'm more concerned at the moment by the fact that the "best" GNP number has leaped all the way up to 54! :eek: This could be one of two things: either one of the civs in the fog (Rabbits/Banana) is really doing well, or Imperio just connected their gold resources and started working the tiles. I'm actually hoping for the latter, as it would mean a lesser increase (Imperio was already at 41). We'll know for sure at the end of this turn.

Our prospects are pretty good in the short term. I worry though about the long-term though, given our generally unimpressive terrain and total lack of happiness resources. Imperio's land is just ridiculously better than ours, and they will be able to grow their cities to larger sizes, thus working even more tiles, many of them floodplains... I think we've played things about as well as possible, but there's only so much we can do with the start we received. The obvious answer would be to go on the attack - oh wait, we don't have any strategic resources either! Silly me. :rolleyes: Anyway, feeling a little less optimistic about our situation down the road. Still, we'll come up with something.

Krill said our forum is the one he enjoys reading the most. Perhaps we have the best discussions and the best team dynamics, eh? Well maybe not. But still a good sign. :)

[Sullla]

Some updates from the last few turns:

Last turn (T55), the big news was that the Templars finally got off their fannies and settled a second city. PAL also double-whipped their capital (from size 4 to 2), which almost certainly means another settler is on its way out. (They weren't whipping a military unit, because there was no increase in Solider points.) My guess is that we will see them found city #4 in the next couple turns. Their capital regrew to size 3 on T56.

Imperio researched a tech on this turn (T56), a mere four turns after discovering Meditation! That means the tech was cheap to research, and they also swapped to a gold tile at the capital (GNP up by 12, shields down by 1) for T55 to get it done one turn sooner. Hmm... what would be a tech that is cheap, comes after Meditation, and you would have an impetus to get to first? I bet dollars to donuts that they just grabbed Priesthood and are going for the Oracle right now. Good news that they probably aren't working on a settler, bad news if they land the wonder.

If I had to do a very unscientific ranking of the current situation in the game through the first 55 turns, it would look like this:

1) PAL: Way more cities than everyone else, and rocking the food stat (29! average = 18) for massive whipping. Thankfully not on our continent.
2) Imperio: Outstanding land, founded an uber second city (five resources!), landed Stonehenge and Islam with inside track at Oracle, Financial trait, and Templars seem totally uninterested in containing them.
3) Realms Beyond: Doing the best we can with what we have, and surprisingly competitive given zero horses/copper and *ONE* resource at the capital.
4) Templars: Hopelessly behind in every possible category, except culture in the capital city. No clue what these guys are thinking. They've been sitting at 8 or 9 food/turn for the past 30+ turns! (average = 18, remember)

We don't have enough info to rank Rabbits or Banana. Based on Demographics spying though, Banana seems to be doing much better with their super-seafood capital than Rabbits. (For an Imperialistic civ with +100% settlers, where are all their cities? PAL and Banana are both out-expanding them.) Looks like 2 competitive and 1 "role-playing" team on each continent, by my guess. :)

[mostly-harmless]

Originally posted by Sullla
Their capital regrew to size 3 on T56.
That is not quite correct. It was either one of their other two cities growing back from size 1 to size 2. My money is on Memphis (3rd city) which seems to have a much better food potential (with being a coastal city) than Thebes (2nd city).

(You can derive this by looking at the increase in population across the rivals. 5000 pop increase is only possible when a size 1 city (1000pop) grows to size 2 (6000pop))

Originally posted by Sullla
Imperio researched a tech on this turn (T56), a mere four turns after discovering Meditation! That means the tech was cheap to research, and they also swapped to a gold tile at the capital (GNP up by 12, shields down by 1) for T55 to get it done one turn sooner. Hmm... what would be a tech that is cheap, comes after Meditation, and you would have an impetus to get to first? I bet dollars to donuts that they just grabbed Priesthood and are going for the Oracle right now.

Probably right. I was first thrown by the unaccounted soldier point increase of 2000. But Imperio has all the 2000 point tech apart from Sailing, which would make no sense for them.

So a military unit built elsewhere is more likely.

With all the civs growing and expanding the branching possibilities become more and more. I am still surprised we can analyse as much as we do .

mh

[Sullla]

mh, I was looking at Civstats, and it seems as though Banana hasn't logged into the game for the last week, or played any of the past three turns (last login September 1). I am reading that correctly?

[mostly-harmless]

To be honest, I have no idea. I just logged into civstats the first time. Is there any new info when logged in compared to ... well ... when not logged in? How do you get the info on last login of Banana?
Do we have to register our leader?
Confusing ... :confused:

But you could be right, have not seen activity from Banana in a while in the usual civstat log.
That would be bad, if the first team dropped out already.

Lets hope it is not the case.

I suggest we post something in the Hanging Gardens thread and in their sign up thread.

EDIT: I caught Will9, their leader (?) online and PMed him about it.

mh

[Sullla]

I'm not logging into Civstats (is that even possible?), just clicked on the team name and there was no "login/logout" message listed for them since September 1. Banana did login today, but as far as I can tell, that was their first activity in eight days.

Anyway, it's pure curiosity on my part. Several of the teams seem to have missed a turn here or there so far. Based on Civstats, the teams that log in the most are us (by a wide margin), followed by Templars, PAL, and Rabbits. Imperio and Banana usually have one person play the turn, and no one else so much as glances at the game.

I have no idea what this means. Probably a good thing to have multiple eyes taking a look at the game though. :)

[Sullla]

Relatively quiet turn (T59) for the C&D. Imperio got 21 points, all of them from their capital's borders expanding to 100 culture (twenty turns ago, on T39). Rabbits and Banana also saw pop increases; both their capitals are now size 4.

The interesting news was from the GNP chart. The Templars number went from 33 to 27, while PAL fell from 29 to 25. Since the Food/Production numbers largely stayed the same (PAL's actually went up from settling their fourth city!), we can conclude that this resulted from finishing a tech that had pre-reqs, and swapping to a new one with fewer pre-reqs or none at all.

The Templars just finished Bronze Working (one pre-req: Mining) so they have to be researching a tech with zero pre-reqs now. The only options are Fishing and Hunting. Given their situation, I'm going to guess that they are researching Hunting -> Archery right now.

PAL is even easier. They went from Writing (two pre-reqs: Pottery & Animal Husbandry) to Alphabet (one: Writing). My rough estimate is that it will take them ~20 turns to research the tech, so we should finish Iron Working slightly ahead of them.

I've also updated the first post info files in each of the Templar, Imperio, and PAL threads for easy reference. Our policymakers need to be informed on each team. :)

[ruff_hi]

remember the tech trade agreement is IW + Sailing for Alphabet. Last I looked, IW was 14 and Sailing was 8.

[mostly-harmless]

We will have cottages up and running soon, as well as one more city and trade route. On the down side we will have increased city maintenance.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Sullla, as you are the one more into the tile assignments of our neighbours, here is a little thing I just discovered, that should help you a lot in that respect:
When you hover the mouse over an unimproved resource anywhere on the map it tells you the current tile production and what is required (mine, pasture) to get additional gains. So much is clear. Now if you hover your mouse above a resource in the grey fog seemingly unimproved but in reality already improved by a rivals worker you can tell that by the missing stated requirement.
An example of the two gold hills at Imperio's lands.
Both gold hills appear unmined.
However the gold in the west is missing the message (mine required) whereas the gold in the east still shows this.
<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb/800/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0535_mod.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view/95156_Civ4ScreenShot0535_mod.JPG)
So, the gold hill for Mutal is already mined, whereas the gold hill for Lakhama is not mined.
If you apply this rule to other resources as well, you can see for example that all three resources west of Lakhama (Horses, Wheat, Corn) are already improved (note that we even do not officially know that the borders have popped already) whereas the stone to their east is not quarried yet.

With this admittedly little exploit, we could even spot cities in the fog, if we find an improved resource there (for example the land to Templars east, where we are lacking a scout.

I went ahead and cluttered the map with signs accordingly. :)
mh

[sunrise089]

(Hopefully this won't spread too far since I don't think it's widely known)

You can do the same thing with roads in neutral territory. Take a unit and issue it a movement order to somewhere like 10 tiles away. If an enemy has been roading the land in that area the pathfinder will show a route that takes fewer turns than expected even if you can't see the road.

[regoarrarr]

Originally posted by ruff_hi
remember the tech trade agreement is IW + Sailing for Alphabet. Last I looked, IW was 14 and Sailing was 8.

I'm pretty sure we are due to finish Sailing in 2 more turns.

Edit by Ruff: Hello! I posted that comment on Sept 10th - about 20 days ago. :lol:

Keek again: Heh. I got confused by the wacky European styles dates. I saw 10-9 and thought October...

yeah. that's the ticket! :)

[Sullla]

That's really good info there! :b: :b: It's hard to believe though that Imperio's not working the gold tile at Lakamha. Where's all their GNP coming from then (?) Their GNP shot up 13 points (47 -> 60) on T61, which I assumed was coming from working a second gold tile. Maybe that was the turn on which Stonehenge's culture doubled (?) mh, do you know if we can verify that one way or the other?

Thanks for catching my stupid gaffe on forgetting that the Templars had just researched Hunting. Don't know how I missed that one! Better for us than them having another quechua running around.

A final C&D point of interest: PAL double-whipped one of their cities during the current turn (T67), so odds are their fifth settler is on its way. I wish I could understand why we're the only teams that seem to be interested in pushing expansion so heavily. The land is highly contested in this game - it's definitely not the CivFanatics Demogame where each team had their own starting penninsula - and there's every incentive to settle quickly!

[Sullla]

I had to go ahead and try to do tile analysis after getting that tip from mostly_harmless. One important thing to keep in mind is that the mouse-over info only tells you if a resource is connected, not that the tile is actually being worked by a city. Given our great scouting though, we still have enough info to put together a reasonable guess at how our rivals are configuring their cities.

Imperio

Mutal
2/1/1 Center Tile
3/3/0 Plains Cattle
0/3/9 Desert Gold (with River and Financial Bonus)
3/0/3 Floodplains Cottage*
3/0/3 Floodplains Cottage*

Lakamha
2/1/1 Center Tile
5/0/1 Grassland Corn
2/2/3 Grassland Horses (with River and Financial Bonus)
4/1/1 Plains Wheat
0/3/0 Forested Plains Hill*

18/11/16

(Missing 6/3/?)

Total

24/14/32

Guestimating that Imperio produces 32 raw commerce/turn.
Add in Culture (12) and Espionage (4) and possible Stonehenge doubling (8) and we get 56, close to their GNP (65); the extra 9 points likely come from pre-req research discounts. This should be a reasonable estimate.

Explanation: The starred* tiles are ones that I guessed at, after looking at the resources and filling in what was missing from the totals. It seems reasonable though that Mutal would want to be working floodplains cottages, and Lakamha (with a major food excess) would want to work a plains hill for extra shields.

My best guess is therefore that Imperio produces roughly 32 commerce each turn, almost all of which is likely going into research. Estimate something like 30-35 to allow for error. This is notably higher than us (we produce 22/turn), but not as bad as the GNP graph would have you believe!

Templars

Jerusalem
2/1/1 Center Tile
4/2/0 Grassland Cattle
1/3/1 Plains Hill
1/1/3 Plains Cottage*
1/2/0 Plains Forest*

Constantinople
2/1/1 Center Tile
4/0/0 Rice Farm
2/2/2 Grassland Horses

15/9/5
(Missing 2/3/?)

Total
17/12/18

Guestimating that Templars produce 18 raw commerce/turn.
Add in Culture (at least 10) and Espionage (4) and we get a score of 32, close to their GNP (36); the rest comes from pre-req discounts. This also seems pretty reasonable.

Explanation: Much less certain about my Templar estimates. Their zany capital city is pretty much pure guesswork, me trying to force tile arrangements into the missing totals. But their *IS* good evidence that they've been working a plains cottage there, as I pegged them as working a plains tile ages ago as well. It's also possible that they may be employing a Priest specialist via temple, and messing up the totals that way.

I do think the commerce is pretty close though. Templars are almost certainly in the 15-20 range, a far cry from their impressive showing on the GNP graph! As we know, most of that is due to culture from founding two religions.

Anyway, don't put too much faith in this, as it involves a lot of guesswork. But I think it gives us at least a rough outline of the other two civs on our continent. :)

[mostly-harmless]

Well, yes the little mouse over trick only tells you whether the tile is improved or not, it does not tell you if it is also worked.
And I think I can correct a few numbers from Sullla estimates.
Imperio:
Culture is currently 25:
Mutal:
Palace 2
Obelisk 1
Stonehenge 16 (doubled on turn 61!!! after 25 turns or 1000years)

Lakhama:
Obelisk 1
Holy City 5

There is an additional possible 1 culture if Islam has already spread to Mutal. This is hard to determine from the Religion Screen. I have figured the formula out, but there is lots of rounding involved.
So out of their stunning 65 GNP, 25 are at least culture and 4 espionage.

[B]Templars:[B]
Culture is 12, all in Jerusalem.
Palace 2
Holy City 5
Holy City 5

Constantinople has not yet received any religion.

So together with the 4 espionage points we can reduce Templars GNP to max 20 beakers per turn.

Anyone know if the culture doubling for wonders is linked to 25 turns or 1000years? Is it working for national wonders as well?

mh

[ruff_hi]

Originally posted by mostly-harmless
Anyone know if the culture doubling for wonders is linked to 25 turns or 1000years? Is it working for national wonders as well?

mh

1000 yrs IIRC. Not sure about national wonders.

[mostly-harmless]

I just double checked the population and land size numbers and stumbled above a little more insight into Bananas second city (with a degree of uncertainty as always):
Founded on T35 (2600BC) on the coast (6 land tiles - 3 water tiles {or overlap with BFC from capital; unlikely}).
Started Workboat right away working a three hammer tile.
Finishing Workboat on T43 and switching to Monument.
Switching to sea food tile and growing to size 2 on T44.
Finishing Monument on T50 starting to accumulate culture.
Whipping something (a warrior?) on T51.
Growing back to size 2 (T54).
Growing further to size 3 (58).
Popping 2nd ring (additional 5 land tiles) on T60 .
Totally unimportant for us now. :D

More noteworthy stuff:
Imperio will get two border pops on T69 (Lakhama 3rd ring) and T70 (Mutal 4th ring). Mutal's border will then touch Cape Coppers BFC!

PAL has so far whipped away 10 pop points. That's quite a number of hammers. Banana has whipped 4 pop points, while we whipped 2 pop points so far.

The current list of cities is (sorted by size/culture/~food):
Banana capital (Ban) --- 5
Jerusalem (Tem) --- 4
Mutal (Imp) --- 4
Airstrip One (RB) --- 4
Rabbits capital (Rab) --- 4
Lakhama (Imp) --- 4
The Warning (PAL) --- 4
Pink Dot (RB) --- 3
Banana 2nd city (Ban) --- 3
Rabbits 2nd city (Rab) --- 3
Thebes (PAL) --- 3
Memphis (PAL) --- 2
Constantinople (Tem) --- 2
Heliopolis (PAL) --- 2
China Beach (RB) --- 1

Current land tiles ownage is:
RB --- 66
Imperio --- 56 (will increase to 85 on T70)
Templars --- 53
Rabbits --- 39
PAL --- 39
Banana --- 21

mh

[mostly-harmless]

ooops, doublepost

[Sullla]

More noteworthy stuff:
Imperio will get two border pops on T69 (Lakhama 3rd ring) and T70 (Mutal 4th ring). Mutal's border will then touch Cape Coppers BFC!

Boy do they have a surprise coming! ;) More seriously, obviously it's not good that our borders will be touching. What else can we do though? Fortunately their borders won't be expanding again for ages on end - long way from 500 culture to 5000.

More great work as usual, mostly_harmless.

[mostly-harmless]

Ok, update from C&D department:
So lets look at the teams since T54 (! Wow, could have sworn I posted an update since then.)

PAL:
T55: Guess what? PAL's capital " The Warning " grown to size 4 and whipped down to size 2.
T56: Memphis grows to size 2.
T57: Heliopolis (their fourth city) is founded on a coastal spot. (7 land tiles in 1st ring.
T58: Tech researched. That must be Writing.
T60: The Warning grows back to size 3.
T61: Memphis and Thebes grow to size 3.
T64: The Warning grows to size 4.
T65: Memphis grows to size 4. Heliopolis grows to size 2.
T67: Memphis is whipped back to size 2.
T68: The Warning grows to size 5.
T69: Thebes grows to size 4.
T70: Heliopolis gets whipped back to size 1. Elephantine (their fifth city is founded inland (9 land tiles in 1st ring).

So I have them down to 5 cities. Lots of growing and whipping as usual. Interestingly none of the cities (except the capital) has been equipped with culture building. So no border pops for their cities. They all sit around with only their 1st ring. Certainly an interesting tactic. I am a bit worried that PAL will wreck their economy and will delay the tech trade further. Unless they got some gold from huts.


Rabbits:
T59: Capital grows to size 4.
T60: Capital completes Great Wall. Tech learned.
T61: Their 3rd city is settled inland. (9 tiles in 1st ring)
T65: 2nd city grows to size 3. Tech learned.
T69: 3rd city grows to size 2.

Much quieter than PAL. I am pretty sure they have not yet revolted to Slavery. And the same here, despite knowing Mysticism, no Monument was built yet in any of their cities to get border pops.


Templars:
T55: Settled Constantinople inland.
T58: Tech learned.
T61: Constantinople grows to size 2. Jerusalem is the first city in the world to reach 500 culture and popping the 4th ring.
T64: Jerusalem grows to size 4. Tech learned.
T67: To clarify some soldier point puzzles. Jerusalem finished barracks this turn, as can be clearly seen on the Top 5 City screen.
T69: Constantinople grows to size 3. Barb city razed.
T70: Tech learned.

All the techs are ancient era techs. They are pretty squeezed in from both sides and should really do more expansion, especially if Imperio decides to send that settler southward.
Templars have not yet revolted to slavery. And they also have not yet lucked out on getting one of their religions spread to Constantinople.


Imperio:
T56: Tech learned.
T57: Lakhama grows to size 2.
T60: Stonehenge's culture doubles. Tech learned.
T64: Lakhama grows to size 3.
T67: Lakhama grows to size 4.
T68: Islam spreads to Mutal.
T69: Both Mutal and Lakhama expand their borders (4th & 3rd ring) bringing Imperio up to #1 in land size with just two cities. Iron Working learned.
T70: Tech learned. (Must be a very cheap one; 1 turn research.)

Imperio overtook Templars as the most cultured civ. with Mutal getting 20cpt & Lakhama getting 6cpt.
Imperio has lost the settlers race to Cape Copper and will have to decide which direction they want to settle next. There is of course that large fertile south eastern corner with plenty of grasslands, forests, rivers and some food tiles. But there is also a spot north east of Cape Copper grabbing Wheat & gold and lots of grassland. If they settle anywhere along the northern coast line, we will need open borders to get the "RBS Terror of the Seas" through. Keep in mind that Imperio still lacks copper, but has recently discovered the location of iron.
Also no Slavery for Imperio yet.


Banana:
T58: 2nd city grows to size 2.
T59: Capital grows to size 4.
T60: 2nd city pops 2nd ring, so they must have built something cultural (Monument seems reasonable).
T63: Capital grows to size 5.
T64: Iron Working researched.
T67: Capital whipped down to size 4.
T68: Capital recovers to size 5.

From their recent whip of the capital and the stunned growth of their 2nd city, I would expect them to settle a 3rd city soon.

That's it.
For the assessment of soldier points I will wait for Sullla's "State of the nation" speech on T75 and add to his Excel sheet.

mh

[regoarrarr]

Do we know for sure that they haven't built any monuments, or just that they haven't built any monuments within the last 25 turns (5 turns for borders to pop and 20 for it to show up in the score)?

[mostly-harmless]

You are partially right.
We know they have not popped borders. (I am monitoring the land size values closely.)
So from that I derive no monuments (for more than 10 turns), no libs (for more than 5 turns).

mh

[Sullla]

Thanks for the huge update, mh. I filled in a lot of question marks on my Excel tables. Using the "Top 5 Cities" list to spot a barracks in Jerusalem on T67 was absolutely brilliant! :D A couple of my own conclusions in turn:

- Templars definitely learned Bronze Working on T58. There's no doubt about this, thanks to Soldier point info.

- Based on GNP guesswork, I have Templars down for Pottery as the tech learned on T64. This is not verified, however.

- Since we know that Templars researched Hunting on T66, I'm about 90% certain that the tech they just learned (T70) is Archery. I can verify that once we roll over to the next turn and I can see the Soldier count from the previous one.

- More guesswork with Imperio. Based on their GNP and path through the tech tree, I am guessing that they picked up Priesthood on T56 and either Masonry or Writing on T60. Obviously there's no real way to know, except that one of these two techs *HAD* to be Masonry, because they have connected the stone resource at Lakamha.

- It's obvious that the tech they just researched was Fishing. Imperio already had Hunting tech (T44) and there's no other tech cheap enough to get in one turn. They must have had some serious overrun from Iron Working!

Now that we figured out the Templars barracks and Imperio Iron Working, I'm pretty confident in the Soldier tables again. More info in the upcoming state of the nation post, but as a quick summary:

- Templars should have 6 quechuas, 1 chariot, and a barracks
- Imperio should have 2 warriors, 1 holkan, and 2 units that are either holkans or chariots (probably holkans)
- PAL has 7 warriors, nothing more as best I can tell!

[mostly-harmless]

How do you know, Imperio has connected up the stone?
As far as I can tell they haven't.
Fishing for Imperio does not seem to make sense at a first glance, but knowing they were aiming for Cape Copper it does.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Another update (T71-T80) from the C&D dept. to fill the space between Sullla state of the nation speeches.

PAL:
T71: Alexandra (6th city) settled on the coast (4 land tiles within inner ring)
T72: The Warning grows to size 6 but is whipped down one pop point again. More importantly a slave revolt breaks out in Thebes. PAL, apparently lacking the funds to do anything about it, loose 2 pop points in Thebes (4->2) and the city goes into revolt.
T73: The revolt in Thebes continues.
T74: The revolt in Thebes continues and even spreads to Memphis. The Warning is whipped done to size 4.
T75: Revolts in Thebes & Memphis end. Both cities see a pop increase to size 3, so does Heliopolis (now size 2).
T77: PAL get awarded some land points for The Warnings 3rd ring and Memphis grows to size 4.
T78: Elephantine grows to size 2.
T79: Major population increase for PAL. I can only make sense of the numbers if 5 cities get a pop increase. At this point my data of PAL gets a bit into the gray area, as not all sources match up. This was bound to happen at some point.

I think PAL is through their most critical stages. They have 6 cities and currently work 27 tiles (including the city tiles). We have 17.

Rabbits:
T71: Get some land points awarded for their capital's 3rd ring.
T73: 2nd city grows to size 4.
T76: Captured & razed a barb city.

Relatively uneventful.

Templars:
T75: Get some land points awarded for Constantinople's inner ring.
T79: Constantinople grows to size 4. Barb city Libyan captured and kept. City will sit in revolt for a few turns (3).
T80: Iron Working learned.

Very quite turns. We might learn something about Libyans position when it comes out of revolt and changes the land size stats. Otherwise Sharon the Scout will spot the city on the Grand Tour.

Imperio:
T71: Lakamha grows to size 5.
T72: Chichen Itza settled NE of Cape Town at the coast.
T73: Mutal grows to size 5.
T74: Get awarded some land points for Lakamha's 2nd ring. And learn tech. Writing.
T76: Tech learned. Archery???

Imperio and Templars have signed Open Borders shortly after Imperio has researched Writing.

Banana:
T72: Got awarded land points for capital's 3rd ring. Capital grows to size5. Slave revolt breaks out in 2nd city, but Banana has the funds to prevent pop loss. City goes still into revolt.
T73: Tech learned. Slave revolt continues in 2nd city.
T74: Tech learned (cheap one). Slave revolts ends. 3rd city settled on the coast.
T75: The Pyramids built in capital.
T76: Pop increase for both capital (->size6) & 2nd city (->size4)
T78: Tech learned.
T80: Got awarded land points for 2nd city's 2nd ring. Whipped capital and 2nd city down by one pop each.

Interesting turns for Banana.

Thats it.
I am not 100% sure I got PALs data correct, as it appears that slave revolting cities drop out of some of the demographics stats while captured (& revolting) cities do not. Also the major pop increase is not confirmed by all numbers and stats I monitor. But hey, who is to say there aren't any bugs in this after all those years, since I doubt many have dug that deep into the score & demographic system.

mh

[Sullla]

More great stuff. :b: I filled in and clarified a number of entries on my spreadsheet. It's especially helpful to have these posts on the tens (T70, T80, etc.) in between the empire posts.

Imperio definitely did not learn Archery on T76, because there was no corresponding Soldier point increase. Is that the turn where they learned Fishing (?)

Still waiting on the new turn to start. That darned clock is buggy as hell. It said it would take 14 hours last night, and 14 hours later we still have another 6 hours on the clock. WTF?! :hmmm:

[sunrise089]

Is the pitboss clock like the normal MP turn timer? If so I expect the time displayed on it to have about zero correlation to reality while someone is logged in.

[mostly-harmless]

Apparently PAL paused the game, according to an Imperio player in the Pitboss connection thread.

I agree it is annoying to have to wait even longer for a new turn, especially now that there is so much going on.

mh

[Zeviz]

Can we make a guess about whether Templars have trained or are training a Settler? (Or has the game gone too far for such precise intelligence?)

[mostly-harmless]

Unless Sullla pulls something out of his hat, I would say it is not possible for us to predict Templars builds that precise anymore.

I can tell you that Jerusalem sits at size4 since 20 turns! But they have not the best terrain for growth.
They certainly have not whipped anything yet (still waiting for them to revolt to slavery).

But I have the gut feeling a settler is on the way to Iron already, especially since they did not need any settler to claim the SouthEast due to the captured barb city.

mh

[Sullla]

No, once the civ gets to two cities, it's all but impossible to follow city builds. But we can guess...

I have Templars build axe, archer, quechua in the Soldier tables for T71, T72, and T73, and another axe on T77. They captured the barb city (Libyan/Damascus) a few turns later, on T79. Throughout that period, the Food/Production tables were very flat; the Templars were running at 19 food/17 shields or 17/19 for almost the whole time. It's very likely that one of their two cities has either built a settler, or is building one right now.

Still, I'm not as pessimistic as mostly_harmless. Even if the Templars do settle near the iron, we can probably still win it away from them with culture (although whether we SHOULD do so is open to question). We are also rather close to finishing our own settler, so hopefully things will work out...

We can always whip our settler too, if we should see a race developing.

[mostly-harmless]

@ Sullla: I have Imperio down with researching a classical tech this turn. Since it does not show up it must be "hidden" behind Priesthood. Any ideas?

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

Is CoL a classical tech? It's the only tech I can see that would be blocked by Priesthood.

[regoarrarr]

But if that was the case we'd have a religion founded announcement. Could it be Monarchy?

[T-hawk]

Imperio researched Monarchy. The "Can Research" screen for them shows Code of Laws and Feudalism available.

[mostly-harmless]

Ah, yes. Very good T-Hawk.

mh

[Sullla]

Pretty bad news for us. We have to hope that PAL won't try and trade Code of Laws with Imperio instead of us now...

It's really difficult keeping up with their gold resources and floodplains tiles.

[T-hawk]

A note from the "Uh-Oh" department...

The Oracle hasn't been built yet, right? Is the door open for Imperio to slingshot Feudalism and longbows?

[mostly-harmless]

Stonehenge, Great Wall & Pyramids have been built.
Oracle is still out there.

Imperio also got an Great Prophet this turn.
Could they lightbulb anything of importance?

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

We have to hope (and expect) that PAL decides to honour its commitment to the deal. If they doesn't, we'll badmouth them to the other teams, but if PAL has the techs then they'll still be takers for deals. Let's hope it doesn't come to this!

[Kylearan]

Hi,

Originally posted by T-hawk
The Oracle hasn't been built yet
I also wondered about that. I hope not all teams overdo the meta-game, not daring to go for the Oracle because they think another team surely will and the risk would be too high...until someone finally does and slingshot a really expensive/powerful tech... :eek:

-Kylearan

[Swiss Pauli]

I think Imperio's Prophet would bulb Theology, but maybe they'd be better off with the shrine?

[T-hawk]

Kylearan - I think we're too late for that. Feudalism is already a really expensive/powerful tech to slingshot. And remember that Imperio went for Priesthood early and has had it for some time. Look for longbows on our northeastern border within a handful of turns...

[Sullla]

I've been worried about a late Oracle scenario for ages now. Based on our starting situation, we never had ANY chance of getting it. My hope was that one of the "losing" teams (like Banana or Rabbits) would use it on an unimportant tech, like Metal Casting. Imperio or PAL slingshotting something nasty is a worst-case scenario.

What can we do about it though? We needed to go for Iron Working because we lacked copper/horses. We needed to go for Monarchy because we lacked happiness resources. We had to settle aggressively because our land was subpar. There was no room anywhere in there for an Oracle build. In this case, geography was destiny. Since Imperio got a fabulous start, they can build wonders AND expand AND research all at the same time. We can't. That's why it sucks to be in a Demogame where the starts are drastically uneven.

Still hoping that maybe we'll avoid the worst-case scenario...

[Kylearan]

Hi,

worst-case scenario is that Imperio slingshots Feudalism and then trades or gives it to Templars if war breaks out (or even before). I'd rather have PAL build the Oracle than that...

But yeah, nothing we can/could have done about it. :(

-Kylearan

[mostly-harmless]

Just a quick update.
Imperios massive increase in points is entirely down to land increase 20 turns back.

mh

[T-hawk]

For C&D archival, here is the formula to determine a city's current hammer production count. The required pieces of information are these:

TheirEP = Their Espionage Point count against us
SabotageCost = Cost shown for the Sabotage Production mission
InvestigateCost = Cost shown for the Investigate City mission

Basic equations:

BaseInvCost = 2 * (TheirEP + 100)
Multiplier = InvestigateCost / BaseInvCost
SabotageCost = 6 * Hammers * Multiplier

Derivation:

Hammers = SabotageCost / (6 * Multiplier)
Hammers = SabotageCost / (6 * InvestigateCost / BaseInvCost)
Hammers = SabotageCost * BaseInvCost / (6 * InvestigateCost)
Hammers = SabotageCost * (2 * (TheirEP + 100)) / (6 * InvestigateCost)

Hammers = (SabotageCost * (TheirEP + 100)) / (3 * InvestigateCost)

For Mutal at the moment, (556 * (112 + 100)) / (3 * 491) = 80.

[Zeviz]

Great work! I am constantly surprised how much information can be guessed from carefully reading screens.

[sooooo]

Very good, T-Hawk.

[mostly-harmless]

Great Work T-Hawk!
Your analysis for Mutal is from T89.
In T90 the situation is as follows:
Mutal (723 * (114 + 100)) / (3 * 496) = 104
24 hpt for Mutal.
That only works if they get the Marble bonus.
So we are looking at the Oracle in Mutal in T92.
No chance we can outrun them.
Might as well go back to the Great Lib plan.


For Lakhama (642 * (114 + 100)) / (3 * 509) = 90.
Probably a library.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T-Hawk, I assume you looked into the code to figure out the formula. Can you do likewise regarding the "Steal Treasury" option? Could we derive how much cash they have from that?

mh

[T-hawk]

For Lakamha, 90 can't be a library. Library costs exactly 90 and would be completed now. Also Lakamha jumped by a lot, going from 54 hammers to 90. +36 is too much for a doubled wonder but too little for a doubled wonder with a forest chop. I'm guessing settler with a chop. (Actually it could be a library if they produced +6H, then whipped for +30 to exactly 90 on this turn.)


I inspected some test cases in a single-player savegame and the formula worked out there. I didn't actually go code-diving. I used these CFC threads:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=252496

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=6081100&postcount=33


For Steal Treasury, the additional information needed is the population of both the target city and the entire civ. The amount available to steal in a city is Treasury * CityPop / TotalPop, and the base cost of doing so is 3 EP per gold available.

BaseInvCost = 2 * (TheirEP + 100)
Multiplier = InvestigateCost / BaseInvCost
StealCost = Multiplier * 3 * Treasury * CityPop / TotalPop

Derivation:

Treasury = StealCost * TotalPop / (3 * CityPop * Multiplier)
Treasury = StealCost * TotalPop / (3 * CityPop * InvestigateCost / BaseInvCost)
Treasury = StealCost * TotalPop * BaseInvCost / (3 * CityPop * InvestigateCost)
Treasury = (StealCost * TotalPop * 2 * (TheirEP + 100)) / (3 * CityPop * InvestigateCost)

Do we know the total population figure for any civs at the moment?

[mostly-harmless]

Yes we do know the pop number.
I will get them together a bit later.

Definitely no whip for Imperio.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T90:

Templars:
Treasury = (34 * 11 * 2 * (148 + 100)) / (3 * 5* 575) = 21.5 gold

Imperio:
Treasury = (149 * 14 * 2 * (114 + 100)) / (3 * 6* 496) = 100 gold

Edit: Furthermore PAL founded yet another city. They also got their religion (Confuz) in one of their smaller cities.

mh

[Sullla]

Wow, this is really cool stuff. :D I'll start editing the current builds and treasuries of the other teams into the Current Actions sticky (and including them in the turn reports). It looks like the numbers should be easy to calculate and update each turn.

[mostly-harmless]

I was trying to get my stats together for the last 20 turns, but I had to give up when encountering that dreadful disputed turn94/95.
I am missing screenshots and data from civstat (which was down).

I might get back to it tomorrow when I feel fresh again, but for now I am close to throw in the towel on accurately tracking what happened in the world. I can say I have a very good idea up to turn 94.

I will try to at least follow the tech development.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Ok, a fresh day and too much time on my hands.
I will change the format slightly and give people only the interesting facts.

So what happened in the last 20 turns:
PAL
PAL whipped like crazy, as usual. Among those whips some War Chariots. Although we feel like we were screwed over with gifting them our horses, PAL connected their own source of horses as well.

PAL has recently sworn off slavery and managed to get hold of 2-3 happy resources, plus they are in Hereditary Rule. So we can expect some rapid growth throughout their land. They are already pulling ahead with The Warning at size 8 and Memphis (or Thebes) at size 6.

The recent completion of The Great Lighthouse gives their 4 coastal cities additional foreign & intercontinental trade routes.

Rabbits:
Well, their are a lost case. Rabbits are awfully behind in tech for some reason. They only manged to spread out to 4 cities altogether and used whipping just before the PAL/Rabbits conflict.
Rabbits lost first their 4th city (Watership Down) which only made it to size 1. A few turns later they lost Valley Hutch to PAL. EDIT: C&D now believes that this was their 3rd city, looking at the ruins (land tiles owned by Valley Hutch).
Fact is they are down to a couple of cities, size 2 & 3 due to emergency whips.

Banana:
With proper continued management Banana would be quite a force by now. Unfortunately they had extended periods with no activity.
Nevertheless, Banana managed to make huge leaps in population. They were the first to have size 8 city (capital) which got whipped down again, but also have a size 7 city at the same time.
Banana has only 4 cities now, but with room to expand they might still be competitive.

Imperio:
As we know, they are doing fairly well. With access to three happy resources and Hereditary Rule they can allow to grow their cities. Size 7 & 6 are their current stats for Mutal & Lakamha. With the abundant seafood at Uxmal and Mayapan (one connected already for each city) we will see some steep growth curves for those coastal cities. Their recent switch to Serfdom but not Vassalage indicates that Imperio is not a real threat to us at the moment.

Templars:
These guys are really screwed happy-wise. They don't even have the prospect of getting a pre-Calendar resource like our Wines. Therefore they have to stall their cities growth like we do. Unfortunately (for them) they lost out on the land grab phase and are now falling behind even Banana.
Their only way out would be a bold attack against one of their neighbours. Although it might be too late for that already. We outproduce them, Imperio outtechs them on the battle field.

Summary:
We are doing not too shabby, but are starting to fall behind PAL, Imperio and even Banana due to our lack of happy resources. It is therefore of importance that we pursue Monarchy.


Some further infos:

I looked into the composition of ingame points to get a better feeling of who is really powerful.
Here is the situation at Turn100:
http://www.schumacherswelt.de/realmsbeyond/ApoBtSDemo/T100_1.png

Imperios and RBs stats are distorted by the points gained by land, while PAL can be seen to really dominate through their population.

And here an estimate of the GNP composition from Turn 97:
http://www.schumacherswelt.de/realmsbeyond/ApoBtSDemo/T97_2.png

Again Imperios stats are distorted by their huge amount of culture. They are not that far off with actual beakers.

For Sulla, here is the current pop count for our rivals:

PAL: 28
Imperio: 18
Banana: 18
Templars: 13
Rabbits: 5
RB: 19


mh

[sooooo]

Nice work, mostly_harmless

[mostly-harmless]

C&D update for T102.
Templar & Imperio point increase solely due to land.
Rabbits & Banana point increase due to 1 pop increase each.

Treasury report:
Templars: 112gold (-7gpt)
Imperio: 155gold (+3gpt)
PAL: 264gold (+64gpt) clearly running 0% science Jeesh!

I will leave the detailed production analysis for Sullla. Here is just my guess on two of Imperios cities:
My take on Lakamha is: 16hammers overflow from Settler +7 normal production.
My take on Mutal is: Just finished the garrison unit for new settler.

mh

[Sullla]

Thanks for the numbers, mh. I have to say, PAL's GNP is a little scary right now. We make roughly 25-30gpt (depending on tile configuration) at 0% science. Great Lighthouse really jumped them ahead. Hopefully, Great Library will jump us into their neighborhood again.

[mostly-harmless]

There is another little loophole for the C&D department I just found. When zooming out into globe view and toggling cultural borders, the position of Calakmul (Imperios latest city) is more or less confirmed by the fact that the tile 1NE shows mixed Imperio/PAL culture. Sloppy game programming works (again) in our favor.

mh

[Sullla]

Nice find!

One quick request for you, mostly_harmless: when you post the Treasury numbers, can you also post the population total for each civ as well? It's hard for me to keep a running tally, and I think your charts cover that much better than mine. Right now, I have:

PAL 28
RB 20
Imp 19
Ban 19
Tem 13
Rab 6

Thanks. :)

[mostly-harmless]

You are slightly off, according to my charts (it matches the demographics numbers, so I am pretty confident I got it right).
I got the following for T103:

PAL 31 (size 8,6,4,4,3,2,2,2)
RB 22 (5,4,4,3,3,2,1)
Imp 21 (8,6,2,2,2,1)
Ban 17 (6,6,3,2)
Tem 15 (5,4,4,2)
Rab 6 (3,3)

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Point increase for every team this turn.
Here is the C&D analysis for T104:

PAL: Triple pop increase.
Rabbits: Pop increase.
Banana: Pop increase and land points.
Imperio: Pop increase and land points. Later tech trade.
Templars: Land points & Metal Casting learned. Later tech trade.

Templars traded Monotheism and Metal Casting (171b+643b=814b) to Imperio for Mathematics & Monarchy (357b+429b=786b)!!!
This is prove that Templar and Imperio are closely cooperating while not bothering to reply to our diplomacy. Definitely worrying.

Population census:
PAL 34 (size 8,7,4,4,3,3,3,2)
RB 23 (5,4,4,4,3,2,1)
Imp 22 (8,6,3,2,2,1)
Ban 18 (7,6,3,2)
Tem 15 (5,4,4,2)
Rab 7 (4,3)

Treasury report:
Templars: 99gold (-7gpt)
Imperio: 177gold (+8gpt)
PAL: 279gold (-47gpt) clearly switched to 100% research, which they can run for another 5 turns.
Rab: 16gold

Production info:
Templars:
Jericho completed Walls this turn. Someone is really paranoid.
Imperio:
Lakamha, 40-57h, another Longbow or a first catapult? Betty Hur is needed for confirmation.
Chichen Itza, Lighthouse (visible on map)
Uxmal, workboat (second fish connected)

And we will see Rabbits demographics next turn, if all goes well.

mh

[Sullla]

Damn. We are in deep trouble if Templars and Imperio are working together. :(

Very frustrating that we sent Imperio a gazillion messages offering to exchange techs, and then see them swapping beakers around with Templars like nothing.

You'd think that Templars would be working with us, given how Imperio clearly is the leading civ on our continent. But then again, we did press them pretty harshly in the early game. What choice did we have though?

[mostly-harmless]

T105:
Point increases:
PAL: They accepted our Aesthetics gift last turn (12pts). They also got another 12pts last turn, which is either another tech gift or they used the GScientist that was born to bulb something. However I cannot figure out what they got from either option. Sullla?
This turn point increase is due to land and one pop.

Rabbit: -
Banana: pop increase
Imperio: double pop increase (Mutal Size9!)
Templar: land points

Population census:
PAL 35 (size 8,7,5,4,3,3,3,2)
RB 23 (5,4,4,4,3,2,1)
Imp 24 (9,6,3,3,2,1)
Ban 19 (7,6,3,3)
Tem 15 (5,4,4,2)
Rab 7 (4,3)

Treasury report:
Templars: 99gold (+-0gpt) (anarchy)
Imperio: 177gold (+-0gpt)
PAL: 238gold (-41gpt)
Rab: 15gold (-1gpt)

Ok, someone help me here. Imperio increased their espionage spending towards us from 3ept to 11ept(!!!). First of all, we can go back to worry mode, but secondly, how did they get that many espionage points in the first place??? None of the 4 cities we can see has a courthouse. There is a remote chance that Mayapan got a courthouse, but that still does not allow for 8 additional points. Weird. Any help is appreciated.
I have pulled one of our espionage points back towards Imperio, three remain on Rabbits.

mh

[ruff_hi]

what about the espionage slider?

[mostly-harmless]

Ahem, yes that would be an option. Stupid me.
But that is interesting. Imperio runs the espionage slider. They will soon be able to see our research.

mh

[Sullla]

If Imperio is willing to run Espionage slider against us, that more or less cinches some kind of attack. Man, am I glad we're going to have the Heroic Epic in 4 more turns...

[sunrise089]

[Getting the "I told you so" ready...:)]

At this point I just sure hope you're right and they will wait until they have produced more units before attacking. Not that I can offer a lot of advice if they attack now anyways...

[T-hawk]

PAL: They accepted our Aesthetics gift last turn (12pts). They also got another 12pts last turn, which is either another tech gift or they used the GScientist that was born to bulb something. However I cannot figure out what they got from either option. Sullla?

The "Can Research" Screen for PAL shows this list:
Literature
Drama
Feudalism
Theology
Civil Service
Calendar
Currency
Philosophy
Horseback Riding
Compass
Machinery

"Can't Trade" shows:
Monarchy
Mathematics
Metal Casting

PAL got Construction!

[sunrise089]

EDIT: Never mind, I forgot Imperio had construction.

[mostly-harmless]

T106:
Point increase:
PAL: 4 x pop increase! & whipping 2+1+1 pop +1more
Rabbit: pop increase & Iron Working
Banana: 2 x pop increase, classical tech from trade and recently whipped down one pop point

Imperio: -
Templars: -
RB: pop increase & Great Lib

Population census:
PAL 34 (size 8,7,5,4,3,3,2,2) edited after whipping
RB 24 (5,4,4,4,3,3,1)
Imp 24 (9,6,3,3,2,1)
Ban 20 (7,6,4,3)
Tem 15 (5,4,4,2)
Rab 8 (4,4)

Treasury report:
Templars: 99gold (+-0gpt)
Imperio: 176gold (-1gpt)
PAL: 186gold (-52gpt)
Rab: 12gold (-3gpt)

Production:
Mutal clearly finished another Longbow (not an aggressive unit!) as we can see it from our scouting archer.

mh

[T-hawk]

Mutal clearly finished another Longbow (not an aggressive unit!)

It's not? (http://www.dos486.com/civ4/epic23/page2.shtml) When slingshot before opposing longbowmen and macemen, it sure is.

We've got nothing to counter longbows. Even Horse Archers lose thanks to worse promos (can't get Cover.) There's no natural counter-unit, so higher strength is the only way to go. Elephants are the counter we need.

[mostly-harmless]

Ok, I was thinking that Imperio has better offensive units than a longbow. I was expecting Catapults or Elephants.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

I haven't been able to log into the game yet.
But here is the pop census from the beginning of the turn:

PAL 35
RB 25
Imp 24
Ban 20
Tem 15
Rab 8

Templars and Banana traded tech this turn already. Templars getting a medieval tech! and Banana getting a classical tech.
Have to find out what it is Templars got hold of.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

OK, I have to correct my statement. Templars did not get a medieval tech from Banana, because first of all I can't figure out which one and second Banana has not researched a medieval tech yet. So Templars got a classical tech and am ancient tech in return.

T107:
Point increase:
PAL: pop increase
Rabbit:
Banana: pop increase, whip one pop & tech trade with Templars
Imperio: -
Templars: tech trade with Banana
RB: pop increase

Updated population census:
PAL 34 (size 8,7,5,4,4,3,2,2)
RB 24 (5,5,4,4,3,3,1)
Imp 24 (9,6,3,3,2,1)
Ban 20 (7,7,3,3) (incl. whipping )
Tem 15 (5,4,4,2)
Rab 8 (4,4)

Treasury report:
Templars: 99gold (+-0gpt)
Imperio: 191gold (+15gpt)
PAL: 139gold (-47gpt)
Rab: 12gold (+-gpt)

Production:
Heliopolis had a granary before. So it had to be an unit.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T108:
Point increase:
PAL: Medieval tech learned, classical tech traded for (Banana), whipped one pop
Rabbit:-
Banana: pop increase, classical tech traded for (PAL)
Imperio: 2 x pop
Templars: -
RB: 3 x pop increase, Monarchy learned (is that actually an ancient tech?) and we got land points. Whipped 2 x pop.

Updated population census:
PAL 34 (size 8,7,5,4,3,3,2,2)
RB 26 (6,5,5,4,3,2,1)
Imp 26 (9,6,4,4,2,1)
Ban 21 (8,7,3,3)
Tem 15 (5,4,4,2)
Rab 8 (4,4)

Treasury report:
Templars: 97gold (-2gpt)
Imperio: 195gold (+4gpt) the missing +11 were put into espionage
PAL: 86gold (-53gpt)
Rab: 12gold (+-0gpt)

Imperio was forced to up their espionage slider again last turn to keep our research visible. Since the visibility of Rabbits demographics is not vital to us at the moment, I manged our epts to have all 4 target Imperio. That will increase their cost to see our research by 3 each turn and will force them to run the espionage slider again in 4 turns (or get some courthouses going). I believe anything that inconveniences them should be top of our list.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T109:
PAL: 2 x pop, Currency from trade with Imperio & whipped two pops & whipped two more pops
Rabbit: new city (Aachen)
Banana: pop increase
Imperio: pop & Currency learned (Are they really going for war against us???), Civil Service from PAL
Templars: pop increase
RB: pop increase, Heroic Epic (16pts) and apparently we got our land points this turn, not last turn (strange)

Updated population census:
PAL 32 (size 9,6,5,3,3,2,2,2) (updated after whip)
RB 27 (6,5,5,4,4,2,1)
Imp 27 (10,6,4,4,2,1)
Ban 22 (8,7,4,3)
Tem 15 (5,4,4,2)
Rab 9 (4,4,1) (updated after new city)

Treasury report:
Templars: 97gold (+-0gpt)
Imperio: 203 (+8gpt) Confirmed by trade screen!
PAL: 160gold (+74gpt) back to 0% research This is updated to 40 gold in treasurey (apparently they paid some cash in the tech trade with Imperio and with the Bureaucracy at The Warning they can run +105gpt!!!)

Rab: 12gold (+-0gpt)

Production:
Chichen Itza completed Barracks.

Imperio still running their espionage slider against us for 13epts!

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T110:
PAL: 3 x pop & land points
Rabbit:
Banana:
Imperio: pop increase
Templars:
RB: pop increase

Population census:
PAL 35 (size 9,6,5,3,3,3,3,3)
RB 28 (7,5,5,4,4,2,1)
Imp 28 (10,7,4,4,2,1)
Ban 22 (8,7,4,3)
Tem 16 (5,5,4,2) EDIT: corrected
Rab 9 (4,4,1)

Treasury report:
Templars: 97gold (+-0gpt)
Imperio: 211 (+8gpt)
PAL: 146gold (-14gpt)
Rab: 9gold (-3gpt) 3rd city maintenance kicking in.

(FYI: Since we can compare treasury numbers from C&D(T-Hawks formula) & trade screen, I noticed that C&D underestimates the treasury by a few gold. Probably rounding errors.)

mh

[T-hawk]

(FYI: Since we can compare treasury numbers from C&D(T-Hawks formula) & trade screen, I noticed that C&D underestimates the treasury by a few gold. Probably rounding errors.)

Definitely. The first component of the treasury formula is CityPop / TotalPop, which I think is rounded down. So say 25.4 gold becomes 25, and every subsequent formula step underestimates slightly.

For civs that have Currency, we can forget the C&D formula and just look at the trade screen. :)

[mostly-harmless]

I will be away over the weekend, can someone (Sullla) please take the necessary C&D screenshots?
Thanks.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T111:

PAL: 2 x pop
Rabbit:
Banana:
Imperio: 2 x pop (Mayapan [size3], Calakmul [2])
Templars: pop & new city Acre
RB: pop increase & new city Saxon (captured barb city)

Updated population census:
PAL 37 (size 9,6,5,4,4,2,2,2)
RB 30 (7,6,5,4,4,2,1,1)
Imp 30 (10,7,4,4,3,2)
Ban 22 (8,7,4,3)
Tem 18 (5,5,5,2,1)
Rab 9 (4,4,1)

Treasury report:
Templars: 100gold (+3gpt) [corrected]
Imperio: 218 (+7gpt) Confirmed by trade screen!
PAL: 126gold (-20gpt)
Rab: 9gold (-30gpt)

Production:
Mutal finished another Longbow. Van be seen in city.
Lakhama: some unit.
Jerusalem: some unit.

Imperio still running their espionage slider against us for 12epts!

I identified the three possible spots for Templars new city.
http://apolyton.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=160358&stc=1&d=1235119963
I put my money on Acre1 (grabbing 3 seafood). However I would not rule out Acre2, since it is the better option if they want to place two cities there eventually (Acre2 & Acre3). Acre1 pretty much closes off that area for future settlement.
Acre1 and 3 would be bad spots, since they block our scouting chariot from reaching the Southeastern corner. We will know on T114.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T112:

PAL: pop (Memphis? [7]) & land points (Heliopolis 2nd ring) & whip down 2pop in Memphis? [5]
Rabbit: pop (Caerbannog [5]) & captured barb city Phrygian [1]
Banana:
Imperio: pop (Chichen Itza [5])
Templars:
RB: 2 x pop & Mathematics & Civil Service traded

Updated population census:
PAL 36 (size 9,5,5,4,4,3,3,3) (update after whip)
RB 32 (7,6,5,4,4,3,2,1)
Imp 31 (10,7,5,4,3,2)
Ban 22 (8,7,4,3)
Tem 18 (5,5,5,2,1)
Rab 11 (5,4,1,1)

Treasury report:
Templars: 93gold (-7gpt) (C&D)
Imperio: 227 (+9gpt) (trade screen)
PAL: 106gold (-20gpt) (trade screen)
Rab: 5gold (-4gpt) (C&D)

Production:
Imperio:
Mutal 18 (+18hpt)
Lakamha 38 (+19hpt)
Chichen Itza 6 (+2hpt)
Uxmal 0 (finished something worht ~30h, I guess a nother workboat to hook up 3rd sea food resource @ Uxmal)
Mayapan 6 (+4hpt)
Calakmul 10 (?)

Templars:
Jerusalem 17 (+7hpt)
Jericho 35 (+5hpt)
Damaskus 52 (?)

Rabbits:
Caerbannog 19 (-8hpt) build order swap?
Diggers Burrow 53 (+12hpt)
Mountain Hutch 35 (?)

PAL:
Heliopolis 43 (+11hpt)


mh

[mostly-harmless]

T113:

PAL: pop (??? [4]) whip down 2pop in ??? [2]
Rabbit: whip 1 pop (Diggers Burrow [3])
Banana: classical tech & medieval tech traded
Imperio: pop (Uxmal [5]) & land points
Templars:
RB: land points (a lot!)

Updated population census:
PAL 35 (size 9,5,5,4,4,3,3,2) (update after whip)
RB 32 (7,6,5,4,4,3,2,1)
Imp 32 (10,7,5,5,3,2)
Ban 22 (8,7,4,3)
Tem 18 (5,5,5,2,1)
Rab 10 (5,3,1,1)

Treasury report:
Templars: 90gold (-3gpt) (C&D)
Imperio: 227 (+9gpt) (trade screen)
PAL: 106gold (-20gpt) (trade screen)
Rab: 48gold (+43gpt) (C&D)

Production:
Imperio:
Mutal 52 (+34hpt)
Lakamha 49 (+11hpt)
Chichen Itza 10 (+4hpt)
Uxmal 41 (+41hpt)
Mayapan 10 (+4hpt)
Calakmul 12 (+2hpt)

Templars:
Jerusalem 24 (+7hpt)
Jericho 40 (+5hpt)
Damaskus 78 (+26hpt) Something with a modifier

Rabbits:
Caerbannog 0 (-19hpt) cheap unit?
Diggers Burrow 0 (-54hpt)
Mountain Hutch 4 (-32hpt)

PAL:
Heliopolis 54 (+11hpt)


mh

[mostly-harmless]

T114:

PAL: pop (??? [4]) & land points
Rabbit:
Banana: land points
Imperio: land points
Templars:
RB: pop

Population census:
PAL 35 (size 9,5,5,4,4,4,3,2)
RB 33 (7,6,5,5,4,3,2,1)
Imp 32 (10,7,5,5,3,2)
Ban 22 (8,7,4,3)
Tem 18 (5,5,5,2,1)
Rab 10 (5,3,1,1)

Treasury report:
Templars: 86gold (-4gpt) (C&D)
Imperio: 247 (+20gpt) (trade screen)
PAL: 62gold (-44gpt) (trade screen)
Rab: 42gold (-6gpt) (C&D)

Production:
Imperio:
Mutal 36 (+?hpt) Finished a War Elephant (visible) and went back to whatever was in the queue
Lakamha 54 (+6hpt) Another War Elephant?
Chichen Itza 14 (+4hpt)
Uxmal 48 (+7hpt)
Mayapan 14 (+4hpt)
Calakmul 14 (+2hpt)

Templars:
Jerusalem 31 (+7hpt)
Jericho 45 (+5hpt)
Damaskus 104 (+26hpt) Something with a modifier

Rabbits:
Caerbannog 0
Diggers Burrow 0
Mountain Hutch 8 (+4hpt)
Phrygian 0

PAL:
Heliopolis 7 (+13?hpt) Finished something worth 60h


mh

[Sullla]

Thanks for keeping these stats, mh. We're also (finally) seeing Imperio's war plans in progress, now that they've started building elephants. I don't think it's possible to telegraph an attack more blatantly than they've done...

[Sullla]

mh, do you by any chance have screenshots of the Demographics screen for the two turns I missed, T112 and T113? If so, could you post them in this thread? It would let me fill in a few missing pieces of info. Thanks. :)

Also, I think you are a little off on Banana's score for T113. They discovered a Classical tech that turn, then gained a Medieval one in mid-turn. Since they immediately revolted to Bureaucracy, my guess is that they received Civil Service from PAL in a delayed trade... probably researched Math and then were traded CS, just like us!

[mostly-harmless]

Yep, its in my notes, but I forgot to update the post with Bananas score. Its like you said.

The demo screens will come in 12 hours or so. They are on they other machine.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T112: After PAL whip and Rabbits Barb City.
mh

[mostly-harmless]

T114: After whips fro PAL and Rabbits.
mh

[mostly-harmless]

T115:

PAL: pop (??? [5]) & pop (??? [6])
Rabbit:
Banana: 2x classical tech trade from end of last turn, Literature will be added this turn & pop (??? [5]) & new city (Doal [1])
Imperio: classical tech trade from last turn & Literature will be added this turn
Templars:
RB: pop & land & two whips

Population census:
PAL 38 (size 9,6,5,5,4,4,3,2)
RB 32 (8,6,5,5,4,2,1,1)
Imp 32 (10,7,5,5,3,2)
Ban 24 (8,7,5,3,1) (updated after new city)
Tem 18 (5,5,5,2,1)
Rab 9 (5,3,1)

Treasury report:
Templars: 84gold (-2gpt) (trade screen)
Imperio: 247 (+-0gpt) (trade screen) Anarchy
PAL: 55gold (-7gpt) (trade screen)
Rab: 38gold (-4gpt) (trade screen)
Banana: 46 (?) (trade screen)

Production:
Imperio:
No changes - anarchy

Templars:
Jerusalem - finished build
Jericho - finished build
Damaskus - finished build
Acre 8 (+-?)

Rabbits:
Caerbannog 21
Diggers Burrow 0
Phrygian 0

PAL:
Heliopolis 63 (+54hpt) back to old queue item?
Alexandria 62 (+-?)

In other news Imperio adopted Vassalage and Organized Religion (but not Slavery).
Also Banana are gifting Templars a fish. What we can read into that, I don't know.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

Templars are probably struggling for healthiness is Jerusalem if they haven't cleared that jungle yet.

[mostly-harmless]

Banana settled their 5th city "Doal", giving us back 1GNP from intercontinental trade, but somehow we lost our trade connection to Rabbits and lost again 3GNP trading with Templars now in Mellow Yellow and Saxon the Beach.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T116:

PAL: pop Giza? [3] & 12 points not accounted for & whip Giza? [2] {could be land points, will know better next turn. T96 was the turn we reloaded, so my screenshots are messed up}
Rabbit: whipped Diggers Burrow [2]
Banana: land points
Imperio: pop - Calakmul [3] & classical tech learned (Compass)
Templars: 2x pop Constantinople [6] & Damaskus [6]
RB: pop - Green Acres [3] & classical tech learned (HBR)

Population census:
PAL 38 (size 9,6,5,5,4,4,3,2)
RB 33 (8,6,5,5,4,3,1,1)
Imp 33 (10,7,5,5,3,3)
Ban 24 (8,7,5,3,1)
Tem 20 (6,6,5,2,1)
Rab 8 (5,2,1)

Treasury report:
Templars: 80gold (-4gpt)
Imperio: 265(+18gpt)
PAL: 63gold (+8gpt) pillaging
Rab: 38gold (+-0gpt)
Banana: 45 (-1gpt)

Production:
will leave that to Sullla

mh

[mostly-harmless]

T117:

PAL: 4 x pop - The Warning [10], Alexandria[5] & two more cities
Rabbit: pop - Diggers Burrow [3]
Banana: pop - Banapolis [8]
Imperio: pop - Mayapan [4]
Templars:
RB: 4 x pop

Population census:
PAL 43 (size 10,6,6,5,5,4,4,3)
RB 34 (8,5,5,5,4,4,2,1)
Imp 34 (10,7,5,5,4,3)
Ban 25 (8,8,5,3,1)
Tem 20 (6,6,5,2,1)
Rab 9 (5,3,1)

Treasury report:
Templars: 78gold (-2gpt)
Imperio: 283gold (+18gpt)
PAL: 59gold (-4gpt)
Rab: 37gold (-1gpt)
Banana: 44 (-1gpt)

Imperio logged in recently and our horses are still connected. Would we actually be informed about a failed sabotage?

mh

[sooooo]

Yes, we would be informed by a failed sabotage. Let's hope our warning email to them worked.