3920 - Kgb

[Aginor]

Edit: I'm now using this space to keep track of what we can be certain of. The process of figuring all this stuff out, as well as some suppositions I cannot support by pure deductive logic, are in the full thread. Thanks are due to Mudhut for figuring out and explaining to me the rival average algorithm, and to Blake for determining how tech impacts army size. Thanks are due to both Mudhut and Blake for correcting logical inconsistencies along the way.

Explanations for where some of this stuff is coming from are in the thread. Reading the thread, I suspect, is like watching someone make sausage - it's an ugly process, but the final product tastes pretty darned good. ;)

Ok, looks like everyone but the Horde has settled. Let's take stock of what we know at this point:

<img src=http://apolyton.net/upload/thumb.php?x=800&file=7830_3920demographics.JPG> (http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?file=7830_3920demographics.JPG)

Rival food, based on in-game allocation of Workers and calculations from rival averages:
3960: 5,4,4,0,0,0
3920: 5,5,5,5,4,0

Rival hammers:
3960: 2,2,1,0,0,0
3920: 2,2,2,1,1,0

Rival Commerce:
3960: 10,10,9,0,0,0
3920: 12,11,10,10,10,0

7 tiles within rival city radii as of 3920 are water. At least one of those tiles belongs to civs that founded in 4000, and the one tile that we know about is one space away from that civ's capital.

No one has popped military techs, a Scout or a Warrior at this time.

Two of our rivals founded on Plains Hills and are working 3/0/x tiles. This can be deduced from the impossibility of an unimproved 3/1/x tile and the food/hammer distribution of our rivals. One of these rivals on a Plains Hill MUST be AC or Sara.

At least one of our Creative rivals moved from working a 2 food to a 3 food tile when their borders expanded. Both of those rivals may have, in which case either Sara or AC only has 4 food.

Two rivals currently research faster than us. This may throw a bit of a wrench in the Buddhism works.

We will gain additional information at the following times:

3880 BC: A rival whose borders expanded that was auto-switched by the AI governor to a 3 food tile may not wish to work this tile for some reason, in which case that rival's food (and perhaps commerce) production will decrease and its hammer production will increase. This is unlikely, but it could happen.

3760 BC: The civ that has had 5 food since 4000 BC will grow to size 2, and its food, hammer and commerce totals will be adjusted accordingly. Sara and AC will experience a border expansion, and their production totals may alter as well. We can also use this border expansion to try and figure out whether at least one of Sara or AC is coastal.

3720 BC: Any rival that founded in 4000 BC that went from 4 food to 5 food in the border expansion of 3920 BC will grow to size 2 on this turn. This should answer the mystery of who is currently producing 5 food, and who is producing only 4, if the 3760 BC border expansion cannot answer this question.

3680 BC: An AC/Sara presently working 5 food will grow to size 2 on this turn, and food/hammer/commerce totals will change. Our own Mysticism research should finish this turn, so this is the deadline for understanding what our opponents are up to and determining what our second tech should be.

3640 BC: Any rival that founded in 4000 BC that worked 4 food tiles from 4000 BC on will grow on this turn, and totals will adjust.

These dates will have to be adjusted for whenever the Horde founds, of course. Wonder why they're still wandering the earth - hard to conceive of a start THAT bad. Perhaps their Scout found the Promised Land? (Flood plains valley, 3-4x Gold tiles sort of situation?) If you come up with an explanation for that one, please let me know!

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by Aginor
Looking at the demographics, it appears TWO civs have us out-commerced. Last turn, the max anyone had was exactly what we had (10). Now Liz AND Sara apparently have 12.

This may throw a bit of a wrench in the Buddhism works.



Ugh, yeah that could blow. :(

[notyoueither]

No, it won't.

How many teams have mining and fp's and therefore do not need techs to develop their starts?

We'll be fine, and if we do Hunting first along the way, we won't waste much before we find out that another team decided to throw away their start.

[Mudhut]

Anyone smarter than me who can explain how the health calculation works?

We have life expectancy of 70, max is 85 -> does this tell us anything about others being on flood plain starts (or not?)

I would have thought it likely that at least one team out of seven would have a coast/fishing start -> is this likely to be one of the two teams with 12 commerce?

[Blake]

Hmmmm.... interesting....
There are two ways to get +12 commerce, +1 commerce city tile (default) and +3 commerce tile (financial + lake, oasis, or comm special on river). The other way is +2 city tile and +2 worked tile - this is founding on a commerce special on a river.
I also believe it is possible that there's a +12 and a +11 out there, that would still put us at rank 3, am I missing something for why they'd have to be two others with +12?

I don't think even the +12 team(s) can give themselves an assured chance of getting the religion of choice, since they founded a turn late. I guess it's remotely possible a turn1 founder could be the guilty party, and they chose to work a 0 commerce tile on the first turn to be deceptive or something. Heck, anything is possible.

I support continuing straight to Meditation, with fingers crossed. We are in a pretty research-rich position so even if we don't get meditation, we wont really suffer. By the time the sheep is mined, agriculture arrives, by the time we've trained a couple of skirmishers (or a 2nd hunter and a skirmisher), pottery arrives. Our city isn't lacking things to build at any point, nor is our worker.

If we fail to get Buddhism, we can make CoL a high priority.

[Metaliturtle]

I agree with Blake, he's my kind o Bloke!

[Mudhut]

Hmmm. How does the math work for commerce calculations? Because I kind of feel like we should be able to work this out.

Before we settled (in 3960 bc) stats were:
Rival Max: 10
Rival Worst: 0
Rival Average: 4
Settled: 3 teams (Vox/Bunch/George von F)

So an average of six teams is 4, knowing that three of them are at 0. Since we know that the other three teams have to be at LEAST 9 commerce (eight from Palace, plus one from city square) then you CANNOT get an average of 4 with actual math.
The minimum possible data set is [10,9,9,0,0,0] which leaves us with 4.667 as an average, which would round up to 5 using normal math. This tells us they must be using integer math (not surprising, all of Civ does) and are simply discarding the remainder. We can say, however, that the dataset is NOT [10,10,10,0,0,0] because the average there would be exactly 5.

Conclusion: Dataset is either [10,10,9,0,0,0] or [10,9,9,0,0,0]

At 3920 BC, after six teams have settled, we get this info:
Rival Max: 12
Rival Worst: 0
Rival Average: 8
Settled: 6 teams (all bar horde)
Our score: 10
Our rank: 3

If we assume that the first three teams haven't changed their tile working (can't imagine why they would!) then their numbers should be the same. Now, the integer math leaves open the following datasets:
1 - [12,12,10,10,9,0] ave=8.83. Worst case scenario for us (ie maximum commerce out there in the world)
2 - [12,12,10,9,9,0] ave = 8.67.
3 - [12,11,10,10,9,0] ave = 8.67
4 - [12,11,10,9,9,0] ave = 8.5 (best case scenario, minimum commerce out there in the world).

We need another data point -> but I'm not sure if one is coming. Seems to me whatever the horde end up with, the rival average will be 10 (using integer math).

Anybody see any other way of cracking it?

[Mudhut]

Of course! One way to get more insight is to simply go in to EOTS and start working a non-commerce tile to see what happens to our ranking.

In 3960, if commerce is 10 then our rank is 1. If our commerce is 9, then our rank is 3.

In 3920, if our commerce is 10 then our rank is 3. If our commerce is 9 then our rank falls to 6.

*How are ties ranked?*

If we assume that teams on the same score both get the upper rank (which would seem to be the "normal" way to do it to me) then this means that:
At 3960, the rival dataset is [10,10,9,0,0,0]
At 3920, the rival dataset is [12,11,10,10,10,0]
(note that it can't be [12,12,10,10,10,0] because the rival average would then be 9)

Now, this doesn't seem to make sense to me -> why would the team that was 9 commerce in 3960 change their tile allocation to be 10 commerce in 3920? What am I missing?

Could the ranking be based on turn order somehow?

[Blake]

Of course! One way to get more insight is to simply go in to EOTS and start working a non-commerce tile to see what happens to our ranking.
Ummm I'm pretty sure the demographics are generated between turns to avoid exploits like that.

[Mudhut]

Oops. Hope I didn't do anything wrong !?

But changing our worked tiles (to reduce our commerce by one) definitely seems to change our ranking. So it must be calculating on the fly, yes?

If we are allowed, can someone else check and see if the same thing happens on their demographics screen?

[notyoueither]

You've done nothing wrong.

The guideline is to do nothing with the save that is not reversible without reloading, and which is not what the team actually did in game.

Do not move units where they were not moved.

Do not disband units.

Adjusting workforce to measure demographics is just fine.

I think you are right. I have been able to examine demographics in PBEMs.

[vulture]

Originally posted by Mudhut
Now, this doesn't seem to make sense to me -> why would the team that was 9 commerce in 3960 change their tile allocation to be 10 commerce in 3920? What am I missing?

Could the ranking be based on turn order somehow?

It's possible that they are optimising for the early production of a warrior or scout, whilst aiming for high research. They want to maximise research as an early game goal, but realise that working e.g. a forest for 1 turn will give them a scout 1 turn earlier without affecting how soon they get their first tech. If they are like us, they may have simmed out their research strategy in depth and realised they get their religion tech at the same time despite lower GNP for one turn, and so go for the benefits of the extra early scouting unit turning up 1 turn sooner. One extra headstart on scouting withouth hurting your time to get a religion tech is worth a little micromanagement.

They could have changed from 9 to 11 or 12 commerce as well.

[vulture]

Question: our land area on that demographics screen is 9000 sq km, which since we have 9 tiles within our borders, works out at 1000 sq km per tile (tricky maths). However, our lead rivals in this regard have 21000 sq km. Do they really have 21 tiles? Looking at the average score, and assuming values are either 21k or 9k, it isn't possible to get the average value there. If we assume that a team that hasn't settled counts as 1k (is this true? can't check since I'm at work, and I never paid enough attention to demographics before settling to notice...) then with us in 4th with 9k, the data are [21, 21, 21, 9, 9, 1, 1] including us, giving the average of 12,333 sq km without us (which is what the demo data has).

All of which looks very strange, and makes me doubt the 'land area = no. of tiles * 1000 sq km' value. (Okay, I've ignored the possibility of coastal starts here, so maybe 5 of the 6 teams have settled rather than 4, but there are still 3 civs out there with very large land area scores for having completed 3 turns of the game. Does their higher culture count the extra tiles to make the 21 even before the border expands?)

Obviously, from the pop data, 5 teams have actually settled, not 4. So, any clues as to what is going on with this?

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Blake
Hmmmm.... interesting....
There are two ways to get +12 commerce, +1 commerce city tile (default) and +3 commerce tile (financial + lake, oasis, or comm special on river). The other way is +2 city tile and +2 worked tile - this is founding on a commerce special on a river.
I also believe it is possible that there's a +12 and a +11 out there, that would still put us at rank 3, am I missing something for why they'd have to be two others with +12?


The two teams that *didn't* found 1st turn are Sara and Liz. Both are Financial. +2 tiles are impossible for Financial civs due to the +1 bonus. QED.

It's possible, as you noted, that one of the non-Financial civs switched worked tiles after turn 1; however, I consider this an extremely low probability in a demogame, particularly where the first turn has been debated to death by all teams already.

So my read on the situation is that Liz and Sara both have 12.


I don't think even the +12 team(s) can give themselves an assured chance of getting the religion of choice, since they founded a turn late. I guess it's remotely possible a turn1 founder could be the guilty party, and they chose to work a 0 commerce tile on the first turn to be deceptive or something. Heck, anything is possible.


This is a relative matter. Doesn't matter whether either of 'em can guarantee religion of choice given that it's a race between the two of them. What matters is that they can beat us to the punch if they so desire. Further, those are the two civs with the most incentive to get there first (as the other 4 are Creative).

I'm not advocating a total bailout on the religion strat, but we're in a position where any of 5 civs could outrace us to Meditation if they started Myst->Meditation. We've only got position on the Horde. Further, there's the strong possibility that both of our main competitors for a religion are going for it, given that they apparently moved specifically to get 12 commerce starts.

We may need to consider more complex options than a pure Meditation rush given the circumstances. Since we're out of position on everyone, we're in a situation where we have to react to a blind guessing game as to whether or not Sara/Liz is gunning for Myst, and if so whether either/both are going to go for Meditation or Poly.

Picking up Hunting is clearly out, as our only hope IMO for Buddhism or Hinduism is to get lucky and pick the religion the other competitor(s) don't go for and get it before research can be swapped.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by notyoueither
No, it won't.

How many teams have mining and fp's and therefore do not need techs to develop their starts?


Unfortunately, our competitors are Qin and Liz, assuming that teams that worked tiles on turn 1 continued to work them on turn 2. Qin's Industrious/Financial with Ag and Mining. Liz is Philo/Financial with Fishing and Mining. Given that it appears Liz has 12 commerce, there's a STRONG possibility that Liz hit the land lotto and caught a coastal start. I don't know how Qin has 12 commerce, but my best guess is he's got an Oasis. Possible that it's a commerce special on a river as well, as Blake noted.

*IF* Liz has a coastal start, she probably has a special to toss a work boat at and can postpone Ag and Pottery. Qin doesn't need tech to develop rudimentary infrastructure out of any start; he's got Ag and Mining.

Also, these are the civs that are likely to be thinking the same thing we're thinking - we're not Creative, and we can't chop culture.

I'd say our probable competition doesn't need tech to get off the ground floor, and can pursue what their little hearts desire in the short run. The question is what they intend to do with their starts. They could be thinking:

1) Religion
2) Bronze out of a food-heavy start
3) River and Cottage spam

I ask: which is more likely? I'd say we've got at least one player in the religion game with us, and probably 2.

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Aginor

I'm not advocating a total bailout on the religion strat, but we're in a position where any of 5 civs could outrace us to Meditation if they started Myst->Meditation. We've only got position on the Horde. Further, there's the strong possibility that both of our main competitors for a religion are going for it, given that they apparently moved specifically to get 12 commerce starts.


Does wanting/settling a Commerce-rich start necessarily imply going for a Religion?


We may need to consider more complex options than a pure Meditation rush given the circumstances. Since we're out of position on everyone, we're in a situation where we have to react to a blind guessing game as to whether or not Sara/Liz is gunning for Myst, and if so whether either/both are going to go for Meditation or Poly.

Picking up Hunting is clearly out, as our only hope IMO for Buddhism or Hinduism is to get lucky and pick the religion the other competitor(s) don't go for and get it before research can be swapped.

Let the guessing game begin: Meditation, or Polytheism?!

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Mudhut

At 3920, the rival dataset is [12,11,10,10,10,0]
(note that it can't be [12,12,10,10,10,0] because the rival average would then be 9)


That isn't consistent either. 12+11+10+10+10+10 = 63. 63/7 = 9. Yet even in that equation we show rival average = 8.

Yet we know for a fact that there are two civs out there with more than 10 commerce, and that at least one of them has 12.

Now I'm REALLY confused about the rival average figure in the demographics screen.

[vulture]

Going back to the land demographics, and sticking with the 1 tile = 1000 sq km assumption, the first two turns our competitors were working [9,9,8,0,0,0] tiles. One of them is on the coast, or next to a lake. (Civs that haven't founded count as 0).

But since the 3 teams that founded turn 1 seem to have jumped to 21 tiles this turn (so we should next turn, having founded on turn 2 - or maybe it happens at the end of the turn, but that seems unlikely), then we have [21,21,21,9,9,0] tiles used - a total of 81. Which, assuming water tiles aren't counted, mean that with 74 land tiles counted, there are 7 water tiles around. Which means someone has a coastal start. Possibly 2 teams - one before us in turn order and one after us. Only one before us has a coast start though (but one *has* to have a coast start).

Still raises the question of why borders are expanding so soon. If they really are (rather than just for demographics purposes) then it could also explain the switch in tiles - a better one became available with the expansion.

Has anyone checked the settings to make sure nothing screwy is going on with culture?

[Arrian]

One of them is on the coast, or next to a lake.

Or, in the worst-case scenario for us, an Oasis.

-Arrian

[vulture]

Originally posted by Aginor


That isn't consistent either. 12+11+10+10+10+10 = 63. 63/7 = 9. Yet even in that equation we show rival average = 8.

Yet we know for a fact that there are two civs out there with more than 10 commerce, and that at least one of them has 12.

Now I'm REALLY confused about the rival average figure in the demographics screen.

The *rival* average is divided by 6, not 7. So with average=8, there are 48-53 commerce points out there, and since one team has zero, and all other teams have at least 10, there has to be 52 or more points allocated. That only leaves 52 and 53 as options [12,11,10,10,10,0] and [12,10,10,10,10,0].

However, we know 2 teams are above 10, so it has to be 12,11,10...

[vulture]

Originally posted by Arrian


Or, in the worst-case scenario for us, an Oasis.

-Arrian

Wouldn't that count as land for demographic purposes?

[Aginor]

Originally posted by vulture
Still raises the question of why borders are expanding so soon. If they really are (rather than just for demographics purposes) then it could also explain the switch in tiles - a better one became available with the expansion.


That didn't occur to me since border expansion by 3960 is, of course, patently impossible. Yet the demographics screen seems to indicate the expansion (and I passed over it, simply relagating the impossible data in my mind to 'bug' status).

Edit: Figured it out, go further down in the thread. Cultural civs already register their border expansion b/c they've been founded for 3 turns already @ +4/turn by the time we play turn 3.

[nbarclay]

Working a seafood tile without a work boat only makes sense if you're in a really huge hurry to get a tech, which in turn would imply a probable attempt at a religion beeline. From a food+production perspective, it's a whole lot better to work a forest (of whatever sort) while building the work boat and use earlier completion of fishing boats to make up for the lost food.

[Arrian]

Originally posted by vulture


Wouldn't that count as land for demographic purposes?

Doh, yes, I'd think so.

-Arrian

[vmxa1]

What about the possibility that one of those two civs could run into problems with neighbors, such as the Horde?

[Dominae]

Speaking of which, what are the Horde doing? Is going nomad a strategy on their part, or do they really dislike some aspect of the start they were given (i.e. made a mistake and moved the Warrior second)?

Great analysis, btw! :b:

[Blake]

ON RESEARCH:

Go to the thread where I outline a possible build and research path, with complete timeline of everything that happens.

By not going for Meditation, about the only real benefit is we get to train a scout 5 turns earlier, at present those turns are allocated to pre-building a worker.

Otherwise, all techs are completed "Just in time".

Worker:
We start with Mining, so our worker can mine the sheep the moment he pops out.
Agriculture completes the turn that the worker finishes his mine, he can immediately start a farm.
Pottery completes a turn after he finishes his farm, he spends a single turn idleing (pre-building a road) before moving onto cottages.

Production:
The early years are taken up training the Warrior, Scout and Worker. This can not be optimally accelerated (ie we could work forests in favor of floodplains, but this means less growth and less commerce).
After the worker, at present 2 skirmishers are allocated, or we could go with 1 scout and 1 skirmisher, depending on what it looks like we need. I don't know, maybe you could argue we don't need skirmishers so early. Personally though, I think nothing says "f*** off" like a scout/warrior running into a skirmisher. It sends a message to the savages - you aren't going to catch us with our pants down, so don't bother. The best war is one we don't have to fight. If they want to fight anyway? We have skirmishers! :lol:
Right after the skirmishers, a Granary gets built.
Once the granary is complete, we've just hit size 6. We've just completed Bronze Working. Everything is ready to make out first whip, a lovely settler! And we have a skirmisher waiting at the city site.
After that we're pretty much flat out, research has surpassed production.


So here's the thing. Even with going to Meditation, I'm still confident proceeding with Hunting and Archery, we just don't urgently need any worker techs. We may as well get meditation at the start, otherwise our scientists will be twiddling their thumbs. And we do need the Priesthood path regardless, for Monarchy and CoL.

Also, I'm nearly completely confident that the Creative leaders wont be going for religion except maybe Banana (they might want a rel tech for the wonder), in those teams anyone who suggests religion will be shouted down and the voice of reason will be victorious.
And then on the most part, I think Polytheism is the more attractive tech. It has a wonder, it leads to Juadism.
Meditation is only the most attractive for us and Sara, and that alone should deter any other religion-inclined from trying for it.

Also, we are the only Spiritual and there are no Organized, these are the traits that IMO benefit most from religion. In a game where religion wont have much impact there's precious little incentive left to get it. Granted, religion is just shiny enough to be attractive in spite of reason, but hey, they're probably hurting their game :lol:.

Anyway... it's a risk, but it's a safe gamble, we don't lose much by trying. Full steam ahead to Meditation!

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Dominae
Does wanting/settling a Commerce-rich start necessarily imply going for a Religion?


Of course not - the point of my thinking here was to try to ascertain:

1) Who's got the hot start(s)?
2) If I were those teams, and I knew I had the commerce lead, what would I do with it?

Having read mudhut's response to my above question, I see that it's 12,11,10,10,10,10,0 on commerce. So that means that one of the civs above 10 is non-Financial (and is therefore Creative. Proof: 4 teams are Creative, only one is Financial. Four teams are Financial; only one team is Creative. Therefore, all civs for whom 11 is a possible commerce value are Creative.) For the one civ that IS Financial - I can't see any realistic way that they benefit more from a high commerce start than from racing to a religion.

What is religion for Qin or Liz? It's a free cultural gift for having a high commerce start, basically. Religion as a pursuit for the civ with the Creative civ with the 11 seems less likely. With the possible exception of Banana, from whom I'm not inclined to assume rationality ex ante.

Long story short, both AC and Sara are going to need border expansion in cities #2 and 3, and wiring them up to a religious capital seems to be the most efficient way of doing it. I suppose that Liz could conceivably want to get Sailing ASAP with a commerce bonus, but a Lighthouse would take quite a while to go up since she does not have a civ production bonus on it. Otherwise the other early options are tech to Bronze and tech to Pottery, as I see them.

Another thought - if I had a hot commerce start, would I not want to get to Writing ASAP? ESPECIALLY if I am Liz, and I am Philo, and I can spit out a GS from a nice fat commerce start on the coast. Fastest beeline is Myst->Mediation->Priesthood->Writing. It's a gamble, but it would pretty much guarantee them tech dominance, might get them an early religion, and would almost certainly get them Taoism from lightbulbing Philo later. Not a bad state of affairs if you decide to go vertical out of a strong start (suppose, for instance, that Liz is coastal with gold/silver/gems handy *shudder*).

Blake, I'm not advocating abandoning religion entirely; I don't think doing that helps us. What I'm concerned about is that we're going to have one or two competitors for Meditation, and that we're going to lose that race. My objective in all of this is to try to get inside the adversary's/adversaries' heads and figure out what they're going to do. My conclusion is that Qin could be acting rationally here by working an Oasis/commerce special tile on a river and not necessarily be going for a religion, but that Liz *probably* is not acting rationally (if it's Liz) in the absence of a religion race and is working a lake/coastal Fish. I'm deriving this from the fact that we have two competitors over 11 and that it seems unlikely that both of them caught commerce special on river/Oasis tiles.

All supposition, of course, based on off-the-cuff probabilistic estimates of resource distributions and who did what. Could be (and quite possibly am) way off base on some of the postulates from which I derive the conclusions.

However, to my mind one result from all this speculation is very likely - we've got a religion competitor, they've got better commerce than we do, and if it's a '12' start they're almost certainly going Meditation.

Quickly, to summarize the possible scenarios:

1) No religion competitors right off the bat: Myst->Meditation is viable, we get what we want.

2) One religion competitor off the bat, outtechs us: Myst->Meditation is iffy. If we can burn 2-3 extra turns on Poly and still get a religion out of the deal, why not do it? Here it makes more sense to go with a modified Blake gambit of Myst->Hunting->Meditation and take advantage of signaling to switch to Poly if need be. (Assuming the competitor in question doesn't try to snag Poly and monopolize - which seems a dubious, improbable move and so can be safely discounted).

I don't buy the 'we'll want Meditation eventually' argument at all - I would much rather pay my beakers for that tech when it's cheaper if I'm not going to get Buddhism out of it. Any beakers spent on being the second to that tech as opposed to the third, fourth, fifth or sixth are wasted beakers that I don't want to pay if I can possibly help it. The tech does us no good whatsoever if we don't get the associated religion until much later in the game, so why spend the beakers if we don't have to? Further, we have no plans to go up to Priesthood or Writing any time soon, so we're giving up turn advantage on Pottery, a Granary, and Bronze besides. We can spend our beakers now on things like Ag that we know several civs already have, rather than pouring ten turns into a useless tech that grants us nothing and that will be cheaper later.

3) Two religion competitors off the bat, one outtechs us and one does not - a generally bad scene. If we go Myst->Hunting we get caught and can't get to Poly if the second player chooses that path. There's not much we can do about this one except go Myst->Poly in the event that we have one competitor already at Myst when we get there, which is a big gamble (since that competitor might be Qin, and might be going Poly for the Wonder, particularly if he sees Marble).

4) Two religion competitors off the bat, both of whom outtech us: the only way to get a religion here is to guess what the other two don't and beat the other two to it. Best guess is they both go for Meditation and someone gets burned because either a) Liz suicides it with another coastal tile or b) one player is on a river with a tile to work for an extra point of commerce at size 2 and the other does not have an extra commerce square (doubtful scenario)

If we think that #3 is the likely scenario we're facing, we probably need to start on Poly *immediately* after Myst or give up the ghost on the first two religions altogether. Otherwise we're going to give away turn advantage and research by chasing a worthless tech (Meditation) that will become devalued with time.

All of this boils down to: let's keep an eye on how many civs have Mysticism, and make our next research choice on the basis of how many players are in the race by the time we get there. If there's more than one, we probably need to switch *immediately* to Poly if we want any chance of founding a religion. If there's one, we're best off with the Hunting gambit. If none, our original plans are probably safe.

Or, to put it another way, I apologize to all for wanting a Financial civ over Sally, as with Saladin we wouldn't have to suffer through this sort of thinking on this decision!

(edited regarding mudhut post above demonstrating proof for [12,11,10,10,10,10,0], didn't catch it in first trip back through the thread)

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Dominae
Speaking of which, what are the Horde doing? Is going nomad a strategy on their part, or do they really dislike some aspect of the start they were given (i.e. made a mistake and moved the Warrior second)?


I have no idea. Considered the following scenario:

1) Warrior pops hut and gets experience, apply double Forest promo
2) Horde decides to try to catch someone napping, given all the high food starts
3) Horde decides to go nomad with the Settler and use it as a Scout and try to cap undefended capital, eliminate a rival and perhaps even get a size 1 city for its own use

However, since they've got Hunting and therefore a Scout and not a Warrior, I'm at a loss. Started at the extreme North/South pole on a glacier? Trying to find a non-creative civ, found right next to it, border push its developed tiles away? Your guess is as good as mine, but I'd say it's out of what they perceive to be necessity and NOT a strat.

Fully prepared to eat my words if they still haven't founded by next turn, though.

[Blake]

I don't buy the 'we'll want Meditation eventually' argument at all - I would much rather pay my beakers for that tech when it's cheaper if I'm not going to get Buddhism out of it.
Hmmmm. As a rule people either research meditation extremely early, or rather late. Maybe near the end of time if they got Poly instead. It's not going to get discounted like AH or BW does.

Now wait a sec... how does a fin leader get a +11 comm... the only way, is to found on a comm special on a river. And work a 0 commerce tile.
A non-fin civ can get it by working a +2 comm tile, or founding on a river comm special + working a 1 comm tile.

A non-fin civ can get +12 by founding on a comm-river and working a +2 comm tile. This is quite unlikely tho, altough I have had river-wines + oasis starts before.

Arrrgh Aginor I don't get your logic for why the 11 comm one must be creative. Any leader can get any commerce start within the realm of probability (ie from 9 to 12). Do you have it right or did you not account for city tile commerce variance?

If 11 is a fin leader, they don't have a wonderful comm start (because they are working a 0 comm tile), or they aren't maximizing for comm (yet). If they aren't a fin leader, they have a good comm start, but it may just be coincidental-to-religion that they founded on the river-comm - like "Yay, free commerce" rather than "We need high commerce for religion".

And on the topic of med/poly; I think it's also likely that any other team who decides to go religion, but don't have a great comm start, will go for Poly instead. If we try to race the slow guys, we lose because of player order and stuff.

And I think the question is: What is it worth to get our scout out 5 turns earlier? It's obviously worth something.

While I'm willing to wait and see I really don't think we have a whole lot to lose by dedicating ourselves fully to the religion race.

Then again... the logic that we're either going to lose outright, or get it regardless even with researching hunting first... is looking extremely solid.

Anyone care to do sims to figure out how combination of found turn + comm start + growth rates effect the turn that meditation is founded? Like is a +11, turn 1 player faster than a +10, turn 0 player?

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Aginor
Another thought - if I had a hot commerce start, would I not want to get to Writing ASAP? ESPECIALLY if I am Liz, and I am Philo, and I can spit out a GS from a nice fat commerce start on the coast. Fastest beeline is Myst->Mediation->Priesthood->Writing. It's a gamble, but it would pretty much guarantee them tech dominance, might get them an early religion, and would almost certainly get them Taoism from lightbulbing Philo later. Not a bad state of affairs if you decide to go vertical out of a strong start (suppose, for instance, that Liz is coastal with gold/silver/gems handy *shudder*).


By the way, I think we should go Writing ASAP. We have a lot of research potential and a lot of things on our shopping list, but that does not mean that a Library in our cap is a luxury. Our sims should revolve around three key goals: two expansions, sufficient defense, and Libraries in our three cities. If we can get all that done in record time we are a (the?) team to beat.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Blake
Hmmmm. As a rule people either research meditation extremely early, or rather late. Maybe near the end of time if they got Poly instead. It's not going to get discounted like AH or BW does.


*shrug* If one extra team goes up to Writing through the Priesthood side of the tree and hits Meditation before we do, we still benefit. Also, if it turns out that there's race on for Poly, we can always head up through Poly rather than Meditation (taking advantage of that discount), wait until we have a religion to even bother with Meditation (or trade for it later), and make a couple more techs available in the long run.


Now wait a sec... how does a fin leader get a +11 comm... the only way, is to found on a comm special on a river. And work a 0 commerce tile.
A non-fin civ can get it by working a +2 comm tile, or founding on a river comm special + working a 1 comm tile.


The 12 has to be Financial, the non-Financial is the 11. Thought this was self-evident; however, as you have observed there is a possible case for a Financial civ with 11 commerce. Let me hit that in the next point.


Arrrgh Aginor I don't get your logic for why the 11 comm one must be creative. Any leader can get any commerce start within the realm of probability (ie from 9 to 12). Do you have it right or did you not account for city tile commerce variance?


Never have had a start, or even seen one, where I founded/would on a Commerce tile on a river as a Financial civ. That would be an odd start indeed. (Incense doesn't generate on rivers that I've seen - such a desert tile becomes a flood plain. Anything else on a river is going to be more profitable to work, particularly long-run.)

It's theoretically possible that a Financial civ: founded on a Commerce tile on a river and is working a food special (eg: Corn) on a Grassland that's not a river, or is working a 2/1 Forest...but is that a probable move? Given that Cathy founded turn 1, it would have to be AC or Sara that is the 11 (since such a city site cannot be masked turn 1). Then the 12 would either have to be a commerce-masking Cathy who realized after turn one that they had the march on Buddhism and switched, or the other of the AC/Liz grouping.

I would still argue that the 11 is almost certainly a non-Financial civ, and ALL non-Financial civs in the game are Creative. It's probably the team that swapped from the 9, and they probably: worked a Grassland Forest or similar 2/1/0 for one turn for the extra hammer and then swapped over to a 3/0/2 Oasis tile (thus growing in the same time frame, masking commerce and stealing a hammer) or a 2/0/2 freshwater tile/Fish (deciding they wanted their first tech more in further discussion than they wanted a Warrior, or just a flat-out misplay). Such an 11 doesn't need religion. Again, there's the tenuous assumption of rationality here (Banana) on what they do, but it would seem likely that Myst will not be the first order of business on the 11's list.

The alternate case you're suggesting runs as follows: We had a [10,10,9] start with 3 civs. The 9 switched from a 2/1/0 tile to a 2/0/1 tile or a 3/0/1 tile on turn 2. Sara and Liz found, one of whom is working a 3 Commerce tile, and one of whom is founded on a river/commerce tile and working a 3/0/0 or a 2/1/0. Both of them burned a turn in order to increase commerce; both of them then have a high probability of hunting a religion.

Subcase here is: Cathy is the 9, and switched to a 3/0/3 or 2/0/3 after realizing that Buddhism was a lock. Sara and Liz found; one is the 11, and one is a 10.

This may be a logic puzzle which can be solved on the basis of food/hammer output variance across the two turns we have info on; I'll take a look at it when I get home. I still feel the former case is most likely, but I'll have to see if I can actually eliminate any of them.


And on the topic of med/poly; I think it's also likely that any other team who decides to go religion, but don't have a great comm start, will go for Poly instead. If we try to race the slow guys, we lose because of player order and stuff.


I tend to agree; that said, if we're the second team to Mysticism, we've probably got the march on the competition except for the 12 team, and Hunting and Poly start looking solid. If we're the third or later we've got a problem, and it's time to re-evaluate.


And I think the question is: What is it worth to get our scout out 5 turns earlier? It's obviously worth something.


+/- 20 gold, probably, from huts on average. (calculated as blue-sky probability of getting an extra hut by the chance of getting gold by the chance of getting gold; the possibility of tech discounted as highly remote). Which is a decent reward.


While I'm willing to wait and see I really don't think we have a whole lot to lose by dedicating ourselves fully to the religion race.

Then again... the logic that we're either going to lose outright, or get it regardless even with researching hunting first... is looking extremely solid.


True, but there are two possible paths to a religion. You're right that in the case of Meditation we're either going to get it regardless or lose, I think. Poly is less clear.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Dominae
By the way, I think we should go Writing ASAP. We have a lot of research potential and a lot of things on our shopping list, but that does not mean that a Library in our cap is a luxury. Our sims should revolve around three key goals: two expansions, sufficient defense, and Libraries in our three cities. If we can get all that done in record time we are a (the?) team to beat.

I'm thinking Pottery first; if we were Liz and we could pop a GS, a Library is really, really hot; here I think that getting the Cottages up before the Library is the way to go to maximize early research.

I agree that Writing is going to be a priority, but I'm thinking that building #1 is a Granary, and building #2 is a Library in the capital. Further, I'm thinking that the Library is going to get whipped 10 turns after the Settler build.

[Aginor]

*sigh* Double post, deleted. ;)

[Aginor]

Originally posted by vulture
However, our lead rivals in this regard have 21000 sq km. Do they really have 21 tiles?


Finally resolved this one: 3 Creative civs settled prior to our first turn. At 4 Culture/turn, and having played 3 turns (4000, 3960, 3920), the game shows their border expansions already having occurred when the game gets to us (since they have first mover advantage vis a vis us).

Next problem to be resolved: 12,333 average:

From mudhut's interpretation of commerce set, the equation for rival average should then be: (21+21+21+9+9+0)/6 = 81/6 = 13.5, or 13,500 square miles. 13.666 if the Horde get credit for 1 tile for the Settler (can't check atm, but I believe that they do not.)

Clearly the game is dividing by six; division by 7 would leave a different remainder than what we observe (.333) so that part of the explanation seems to hold.

OK, so that leaves only one possibility: somebody's coastal. Presumably ocean tiles don't count towards land area controlled. Actual land tiles = 12.333*6 = 74. So 7 (or 8) tiles are water.

First order of business, then: check 3960 after we founded to see if any of the initial founders had water in their radius. If all 3 display 9 tiles (ie: we are tied for #1 in demographics) then it's very probable that the coastal tiles are divvied up amongst multiple civs (since it's improbable/impossible that Liz or Qin moved the capital in order to settle with 7-8 coastal tiles in the initial city radius). If not, one of them may have brought a ton of ocean in with the expansion, and Liz/Qin may not necessarily be coastal at all.

Second - with the culture expansion shown it is indeed highly probable that the answer to the shifting 9 commerce team/11 commerce team riddle is a non-Financial that picked up a two-commerce square. Perhaps an Oasis or a river commerce tile. The game then automatically redid their worked tile as superior to whatever they were working before. Be interesting to see if they're still 11 next turn; if not and we've got a 9 again, that would virtually confirm that they're trying to max hammers. And if THAT's the case, I bet it's someone that's got Hunting already and is trying to get another Scout on the ground or get an actual Warrior to defend the capital ASAP in case a wandering Woody x2 Warrior shows up.

Alternate explanation: Civ in question that was the 9 civ was working a 2/1/0 Forest. Boundary expansion brings a Silk/Spices/other Commerce special Forest (think they get the +1 commerce regardless of river here, again game is not available to verify) into the radius, bumping commerce from 9 to 10, resolving that mystery. Then one of the Financials that founded is the 11, and either the other Financial or Cathy is the 12 (possibly an Oasis in border expansion?)

Which brings into the discussion the remote possibility that the commerce bumps are *totally benign* belonging to two Creative civs that aren't dying for a religion, that the two civs that need religion the most (Sara/AC) are stuck at 10 just like us and that we actually are in the driver's seat on Buddhism.

Logic puzzle gets even more complicated. *sigh*

[Blake]

Originally posted by Aginor
[quote]
Never have had a start, or even seen one, where I founded/would on a Commerce tile on a river as a Financial civ. That would be an odd start indeed. (Incense doesn't generate on rivers that I've seen - such a desert tile becomes a flood plain. Anything else on a river is going to be more profitable to work, particularly long-run.)
You havn't? *frown*. Wine's the main one that spawns all the freaking time on rivers. Fur is another altough possibly not on this map type. Gold ofcourse is often found on rivers, but I don't think anyone would found on it. Silk will spawn on rivers, Dye and spice will too (tho those latter two I'd rarely found on)..
Wines on plains (+1 food +2 commerce) or silks (+3 commerce), I found on the suckers given the choice. They don't give a fantastic amount of commerce. Found on these tiles + work cottage > work these tiles + found "on cottage", that's the fact.

Starts with comm special on river are unusual, but I wouldn't say unusual enough to not be probable that at least one other team had the option of founding on a commerce special on river. From experience, this sort of start happens like 1 in 4, to 1 in 8 games...
*runs a few trials of continents script, counts the comm specials on rivers*
2/9: Plains silk forest, plains spice forest.
2/9: plains wine, plains silk forest
2/9: plains wine, plains spice forest

I'm noticing a definite trend. 20-25% chance of getting a plains comm special on river, and it's often forest, thus taking a turn to settle on.

[Blake]

Second - with the culture expansion shown it is indeed highly probable that the answer to the shifting 9 commerce team/11 commerce team riddle is a non-Financial that picked up a two-commerce square. Perhaps an Oasis or a river commerce tile. The game then automatically redid their worked tile as superior to whatever they were working before. Be interesting to see if they're still 11 next turn; if not and we've got a 9 again, that would virtually confirm that they're trying to max hammers. And if THAT's the case, I bet it's someone that's got Hunting already and is trying to get another Scout on the ground or get an actual Warrior to defend the capital ASAP in case a wandering Woody x2 Warrior shows up.

Well that makes sense.

Btw what on earth is with Soldiers? Shouldn't it be equal :confused: ?

[Aginor]

I always seem to get Wine on bare ground and hills. Odd, must be an artifact of a limited case set. I agree that Wine's junk, of course.

Next question to be answered in trials - how often are civs spawning with visibility on those specials? And, of those cases, how often would you found and then proceed to work a 2/1/0 or 3/0/0? Still seems like a low probability case set on the face of it, particularly given the river assumption. However, since we've also got a sim request on min/max/average closeness of start for nearest civ, I can kill two birds with one stone this evening and run 50ish map trials to address both questions. (Thank god for the new comp I built and its 4200+ and 10,000 RPM HDD, otherwise it'd take the rest of my natural life.)

Still thinking that the border expansion (see last post) has a lot to do with it, but I'd best reserve judgment until I can sim this.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Blake

Well that makes sense.

Btw what on earth is with Soldiers? Shouldn't it be equal :confused: ?

Edit: Interesting - the Wheel counts, eh? Odd.

[Blake]

Okay, I hunted down the workings soldiers in the SDK, Python and XML.
A warrior is worth 1K.
Mining is worth 2K.
The Wheel is worth 4K.
Hunting is worth 2K.

Everything else is worth 0 (this includes Scouts)

So we are 7K.
The Horde are 6K.
Banana are 5K.
Vox and merc are 4K
Sara and AC are 3K.

Sweet diddly-damn. The opponent average matches the demographics, must be right.

Well, no-one has popped a warrior, mining, hunting or wheel, yet. Or AH (2), BW (8), Archery (6) or Sailing (2), for that matter. It occurs to me that soldiers probably has little value, as the same info can be gleaned from tech costs? Then again it might be useful to track general army size or something.

[Aginor]

Demographics observations from 3960:

Commerce discussed above, 10,10,9 drawn from the fact that putting us at 9 commerce ranks us at 3.

Hammers: Rival best 2, average 0. So 2/2/2 is out. 2/1/1 or 2/2/1 are the possibles here. Founding and adjusting hammers to 1 shows us ranked 3rd, therefore hammer situation is 2/2/1.

Food: Rival best is 5. Adjusting food to 4 shows us at 2nd. Adjusting to 3 shows us at 4th. So rival food counts are 5/4/4.

Land: Best 9000, average 4333. Our land area is zero, so unfounded civs don't count. 4.333*6 = 26. So one of those civs had a water tile of some sort in the starting radius (expected land value = 27 for 3 civs). Most probably that is an inland lake which is their only source of freshwater, though it could be a bay yielding ocean access.

What's all that mean? Discounting the possibility that one of these three rivals founded on a Commerce special on a river: as of 3960, someone is working a grassland grain/livestock special on a river or a flood plain (5/1/10). That leaves the data as 4/2/10 and 4/2/9. The 4/2/10 would be a grassland-river Ivory, plains-river grain/livestock tile, or grassland-Forest-Commerce special tile. The 4-2-9 start is a classic grassland-with-a-shield tile (for our purposes, grassland Forest, or 4/2/10 permutation without the river).

It's also possible that the 5/1/10 founded on a Commerce special on a river and is working a 3/0/0 tile, or that the 4/2/10 founded on a Commerce special on a river and is working a 2/1/0 tile. I'll discuss that in more detail in a moment.

(I'm assuming that none of these civs founded on a Plains Hill; in my experience, if you want that you gotta burn the first turn to move onto one.)

Continuing to work on the logic puzzle with the 3920 data:

First thing to note: Liz is the ONLY civ with Fishing at the start. ALL other civs have some permutation on Hunting, Mining, Ag, and the Wheel. This limits some possibilities - although it turns out that no one can possibly be working a water tile, interestingly enough.

Commerce: 12,11,10,10,10,10,0 as noted above.

Food: Putting us at 4 drops us to 5th and at 3 to 6th. Distribution must be 5,5,5,5,5,4,0 across all civs.

Hammers: Rival max 2, we're 4th with 1, all founded civs must have 1 hammer. Therefore distribution is 2,2,2,1,1,1,0.

Land: As noted above, 7 water tiles. Border expansion for the civ with 1 water tile could conceivably bring 6 water tiles into the starting radius with precisely the right layout of the land; possible, but improbable. My judgment is that 2 rivals (at least) have water within their borders at this time. Impossible to tell whether border expansion did or did not cause this; however, best guess is that either AC or Sara is coastal.

OK, further things that we know ex ante:

The 12 commerce start can only have 2 hammers if it founded on a Plains Hill.

There is no way to get a 3/1/x tile unimproved. We are one of the 1 hammer civs. Our rivals have hammers 2,2,2,1,1,0 but food 5,5,5,5,4,0.

The ONLY way this distribution works (again assuming that none of the first 3 founding teams actually started out on a Plains Hill to begin with) is if BOTH Sara and AC are on Plains Hills. Then they can each work a 3 food tile, and removing them from the distribution yields food 5,5,4 and hammers 2,1,1, which we can account for by a 2/1/1 tile (as above in 3960) or 2/1/0 tile and Commerce special-river start, and two 3/0/1+ tiles.

So now we know why Sara and AC delayed - namely, the Plains Hill. And we also know that they're the only ones with that type of terrain.

Blake, I gotta admit that the Plains Hill on a river with a commerce special is looking like a longshot explanation for the 11, though I cannot discount it. (2/2/3 capital working a 3/0/0 non-river grain/livestock tile is the only way 11 works.)

OK, next problem: Commerce. There's nothing that can conceivably yield 2/1/2 (or 2/1/3 to Financial) to anybody, so the 2/1/1 team is exactly that: 2/1/1, yielding 4/2/10.

Leaves us with 12,11,10,10 to account for with a 5/2, a 5/2, a 5/1, and a 5/1. The 12 HAS to be Financial, unless it's a non-Financial founded on a Commerce special river that went from working a 2/1/0 or 3/0/0 to a 3/0/2 (Oasis) on border expansion. Farfetched, though not impossible. It's almost certainly Cathy, Liz or Qin.

We know that IF it's Cathy she's 5/1/12 and she shifted from either 4/2/9, 4/2/10 or 5/1/10 at border expansion. In other words, she had an Oasis that was unworked once the border expansion landed, and the governor AI instantly shifted to it (and for good reason).

Alternately, it's Liz or Qin. Again, it has to be an Oasis (only way to get 3/0/3), and in this case it has to be 1 space away from the Plains Hill. Alternately, the Plains Hill had a Commerce special and a river and that civ is working a 3/0/1. Either way - quite fortuitous, don't you think?

OK, what about the 11? Could be Commerce special river Liz/Qin working a 3/0/0, as noted. Or it could be that a Commerce special-river Creative, non-Financial civ got a border expansion from 3/0/0 to 3/0/1, or from 2/1/0 to 2/1/1. Or that civ could be on a normal founding tile and have caught an Oasis with border expansion.

Conclusions: Most probably either: a) Liz or Sara is on a Plains Hill next to an Oasis and is rushing to Buddhism or b) Cathy had the Oasis in the first border expansion. I'm actually leaning b), as *someone* had their food count jump from 4 to 5. The 11 is IMO also driven by the border expansion, with additional data to follow in the next turn which may or may not substantiate the conclusions on the 11. It seems that at least one of our border expanders was in the desert, and that they shifted from a flood plains to an Oasis or from a 2/1/0 to an Oasis. In any case, Liz and Sara built on Plains Hills.

So, with all of that analysis, I'm feeling a bit better about the Meditation path. We'll know more after Sara and AC get their border expansions, of course.

[Mudhut]

Aginor, you are my hero :)

Has anybody recorded all this in a location other than this thread? Just thinking it would be nice to have it all laid out for further analysis in an easily-referable location somewhere.

I'm thinking a big momma spreadsheet...

[Aginor]

Can work on that. Present project: Starting spot simulation, 50 iterations, generating 350 observations (Prince, standard map, 7 civs). Some assumptions above were revealed to be bad at 1/3 completion, and others were validated:

1) You CAN start on a Plains Hill. It's unlikely (3/105 cases thus far), but it does happen. Have to rework 3960 segment to cope...which complicates things because AC and Sara don't both have to be on Plains Hills - one of the initial founding civs can conceivably be one of the two Plains Hills civs. Which then makes a 5/2 first turn for that team a possibility.

2) I have NOT seen any instances where there was a commerce tile on a river on a Plains hill. The only thing that can conceivably generate there (I believe) is Wine. We can probably toss that as a possibility. However, it's still possible that one of Sara/AC moved to a Plains hill and the other moved onto a Commerce special to found.

3) The ratio of starts where a Commerce tile is available on a river to found the first city on is 1/5 (21/105) at this point. I've operationalized that concept as follows: no more than 2 squares away from start in any direction (even if it takes 2 full moves to get there), must be something other than Gold or Silver (I'm assuming no one is dumb enough to found on either of those.) Silk, Spices and Wine are all fair game. Incense also would be, but I've yet to see a Plains tile on a river with it.

I've posted preliminary estimates on the 'number of spaces from rival' in the thread on where to move the Warrior.

[Aginor]

Edit: I've started using the top post in this thread to detail what we KNOW, and when we will KNOW more. Suppositions stay buried in the thread.

Final numbers on 50 trials (n=350, 7 civs * 50 trials):

Settlers started on Plains Hills 26 times. Several instances where this happened twice in a game; therefore in slightly less than half the games someone starts on a Plains Hill initially.

Commerce specials on rivers were within two squares of a civ's Settler start 72 times. (Counted specials: Dye, Silk, Spices, Wine, Incense (happened once on a Plains); specials not counted: Gold, Silver (assumption is that no sane player would found on these, as the bonus for improving the tile is too strong))

Commerce special on a Plains Hill on a river within 2 squares of a civ's start happened once. I'm inclined to disregard this as an explanation for what's going on.

We know that: two of our rivals are founded on Plains Hills. We further know that at least two of our rivals are either founded on Commerce specials on rivers or working either a Commerce special on a river or an Oasis. We further know that Cathy is NOT founded on a Commerce special.

We know that all of our rivals but one are working food specials, flood plains or Oases. We can surmise that the one that is not working an Oasis is the one working a 2/1/1 tile (although it could be a non-Financial founded on a river Commerce special working a 2/1/0).


OK, when will we know more? Backchecking 4000 supports the idea that none of the first 3 teams switched their production from turn 1 to turn 2; therefore, observed changes (from 9 to 10 and from 4 to 5) are due to border expansion.

The team with constant 5 food grows 7 played turns from the start of the game, in BC 3760 (it will have grown by the time the turn reaches us). A team MUST have jumped from 4 to 5 due to border expansion; another team MAY have jumped, leaving either AC or Sara with the 4 food (in which case I believe that civ would have to be on a Commerce tile).

Any team that jumped from 4 to 5 food will have 6 food in their bank by the end of 3920. 15 more food will accumulate in 5 turns, and that city will grow in 3720.

AC and Sara accumulate 5 culture per turn, and they move after us. By the time 3920 got to us they already had accumulated 2 culture. Therefore, AC and Sara will have a border expansion showing in 4 turns, when 3760 reaches us. If either is currently running 5 food (and at least one is), that civ have grown when 3680 reaches us.

Finally, the Horde has to found sometime. We can add those calculations when that time comes.


Further supposition:

1) It's probably a good bet that all 3 of the civs that just got a border expansion have been placed on 3-food tiles by the AI. We can confirm that if there's movement away from one of those 3-food tiles in 3880, but I doubt that there would be. Everyone probably wants to get to size 2 ASAP.

We can also tell whether or not both the initial civs went from four food to five by whether or not we get two civs whose food/hammers/commerce increase in 3720. If this is the case, then both of those civs running 4 food originally picked up a 3 food tile in the border expansion. Further, we are lucky enough to be able to distinguish this from the 3760 border expansion that AC and Sara are going to get and the 3760 growth for the initial 5 food civ. If one of those two civs did NOT pick up a 5 food tile, the unlucky 4 food civ would not grow until 3640.

2) If this is correct, that would leave either Sara or AC as the civ that is running 4 Food at this time. That would probably mean that this civ is founded on a Commerce special on the river. They could then be working a 2/1/0 for 4/2/11 or a 2/1/1 for 4/2/12. The 2/1/1 explanation would make a LOT of sense given that such Commerce specials often spawn together in grassland Forests.

Another 4 food, 12 commerce explanation is that either Sara or AC moved to be in range of grassland Gems on a river. And the doomsday scenario there is that they were fortunate enough to catch a Plains Hill in range of their start and also that river grassland Gems tile, which I have to admit would be a hot start.

3) If AC/Sara founded on a Commerce special rather than a Plains Hill, then the other of the grouping and one of the initial civs are on Plains Hills, are working 3-0-1 tiles and are presently 5-2-10.

What strikes me as inconsistent about that scenario is the initial production for 4000/3960 - if the team on the Plains Hill was 5-2-10 all along, that means that the other two civs were 4-1-10 and 4-2-9. 4-1-10 is a pretty iffy move; most 'fair' starts would have at least a 2-1-0 tile in the radius. Not sure that I buy a 4-1-10 tile.

If the Plains hill team was 5-2-9 working a 3/0/0, then the other two civs are 4-2-10 and 4-1-10, which strikes me as even more suspect given that the 4-2-10 only resolves on grassland Ivory or grassland Forest Commerce specials. Add that to someone without a 2-1-0 or a 3-0-0 and you've got a pretty unlikely scenario.

If the Plains hill team was 4-2-10, they're working a 2-0-1 and that strikes me as a poor move, although the other results start making more sense (5-1-10 and 4-2-9). And I'm not buying that the Plains Hill team was 4-2-9.

So it still seems to me most likely that AC or Sara are our Plains Hill suspects working 3/0/1 or 3/0/3 tiles. If that's the case, one of the initial civs has the Commerce special and/or Oases are being worked out there.

[Hot Mustard]

Okay, it's time I expressed something....:eek:...Wow - that's an impressive pile of information already collected! :)

Thanks for all the time and effort spent!

[Blake]

So it still seems to me most likely that AC or Sara are our Plains Hill suspects working 3/0/1 or 3/0/3 tiles. If that's the case, one of the initial civs has the Commerce special and/or Oases are being worked out there.
This sounds reasonable.

There is only one assumption of yours I feel is unreasonable - commerce special on plains hill on river. I know you assume that only the foolish would found a city on gold, but I have certainly done so (in fact I did a couple of games ago). This is primarly when there are at least two PH gold in radius so working both would put a serious damper on growth.
Founding on PH gold gives +1h +2c, add this to a FP cottage and you get 3-1-8, which is a fair (more than fair) tradeoff for the 0-3-9 goldmine. In the extremely long run the cottage option gets upgraded to 3-2-11.

Basically for founding on gold, it's positive in the short run via the significant bonus to the city tile. In the short-medium run it's negative because you can very quickly mine a gold mine. In the medium run it's positive again because a cottage will be reaching high commerce levels, in the very long run cottages get upgraded to be better than gold. I'm pretty sure the turn advantage for a single gold is best by mining and working it, but for multiple gold I suspect it's acceptable to found on one of them. Generally though founding on a garbage tile would be best, if such a tile is in a good location for founding on.

The numbers don't look so good for non-fin, since they only get +1 commerce by founding on the gold and a river cottage doesn't start out at 3 comm. I doubt it's ever worth it for non-fin.

It is also possible of course that a team founds on PH gold based on flawed reasoning (that looks good), or because for other reasons it simply looks like the best place to put a city.

I think your deductions are probably right, altough at the end of the day it's still a best-guess thing.

But do I think it's happened? No. No I don't, very unlikely. Maybe I just wanted to disagree with your assertion on the intelligence of those who would found on PH gold/silver :D, or at least assert that those dumb enough to do so actually exist :tongue:.


If the Plains hill team was 5-2-9 working a 3/0/0, then the other two civs are 4-2-10 and 4-1-10, which strikes me as even more suspect given that the 4-2-10 only resolves on grassland Ivory, stone, marble or grassland Forest Commerce specials. Add that to someone without a 2-1-0 or a 3-0-0 and you've got a pretty unlikely scenario.

If the Plains hill team was 4-2-10, they're working a 2-0-1 and that strikes me as a poor move, although the other results start making more sense (5-1-10 and 4-2-9). And I'm not buying that the Plains Hill team was 4-2-9.
(little addition in bolditalic, i have seen these on grassland river a good number of times)

It is within the realm of possibility that a team decides to found in a location where all the good tiles require a border pop in order to work. Altough given the relative abundance of forest working a 2-0-1 would be suspect, unless they really want to race for religion (which is unlikely, I feel), not that I've never founded in a location which has nothing better than 2-0-1 or 0-2-1. It's at the expense of 5 hammers really (5 hammers for 5 commerce), and that wont break the bank if the post-pop situation is really nice.

I guess the border pops will tell us more.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Blake
I know you assume that only the foolish would found a city on gold, but I have certainly done so (in fact I did a couple of games ago). This is primarly when there are at least two PH gold in radius so working both would put a serious damper on growth.


Yes, I saw one such start over the 50 or so starts I generated where there were, I think, 2 Silver and a Gold in an initial radius with a river but no food specials. I'd have founded on the Silver on the river, no questions asked there, since the terrain was so rugged there was no way other than Great Merchants to get enough of a food surplus to work all 3 tiles anyway.

Still, with something like 5 civs starting with Mining (including all the Financials) and both of the possible Financial 'founded on a river Gold tile' suspects having some way of working food specials (Fishing/Ag), I just don't see it. There's no way China founds on a Gold IMO, just no way, since they can Farm and Mine from turn 1, so they can power multiple Gold mines. And I consider it to be pretty low probability with Liz. (And we know for a fact that Cathy didn't found on a river Commerce special.)


But do I think it's happened? No. No I don't, very unlikely. Maybe I just wanted to disagree with your assertion on the intelligence of those who would found on PH gold/silver :D, or at least assert that those dumb enough to do so actually exist :tongue:.


*laughs* I understand the reasoning, and I can see the cases where it happens - but as you say, realistically in this game I don't see it.


It is within the realm of possibility that a team decides to found in a location where all the good tiles require a border pop in order to work. Although given the relative abundance of forest working a 2-0-1 would be suspect, unless they really want to race for religion (which is unlikely, I feel), not that I've never founded in a location which has nothing better than 2-0-1 or 0-2-1.


I've done that as well, and it's a particularly easy call with a Creative civ that gets a fast border pop. But I'm still having a hard time buying the 2-0-1, even in a bad start. I consider a situation where there's nothing better than a 2-1-0 to work pre-border pop sub-par; about half the time there's at least a 3-0-0 to start, if you're so inclined.

I guess the border pops will tell us more.

Amen to that, which is why I've posted the dates for certain civ growth, possible civ growth and border pops in the OP. It appears that we're fortunate enough that we ought to be able to nail it down to specific civs (with Mercs/Banana and AC/Sara indistinguishable) on food, hammers and commerce by the time we have to make our decision on the second tech to be researched. Which is a really good thing, because it lets us make the right research call and be confident that we'll get the outcome we want.

[Cort Haus]

@ this discussion - :unworthy: